North pole to melt this year?

Possibly, but not necessarily...

Based on those 8 pictures and using that logic, last year would have had the highest ice extent in September...your other graph doesn't seem to show that...
 
another problem with that logic is that Spring of 2006 was one of the lowest starting points for the ice melt in the past 10 years yet 2006 had the highest ice at the end of the summer.

icecover_current.png


But the goal posts are always moving. we have now gone 15 years with a flat trend in the temperature record and that was not what the models were predicting (to be fair I suppose the most conservative estimates allowed for that but it was not in the middle of the trend predictions by any means).

Hadcrut 3 unadjusted global data from 1996 to 2012

Even Gavin Schmidt (sp?) from NASA and RealClimate said that he would begin to question global warming if all 4 major indices had not exceeded 1998 by the end of 2012. This has still not happened although 2012 was a statistical tie in one or two of them. This year is NOT starting out good to surpass 1998 (See AMSU to follow the satellite record and you will see that it is spending much of its time at the bottom 1/3rd of the past 10 years of data.).

In reply to:
Click to expand...
 
I wonder if Gavin Schmidt will admit he is now questioning AGW theory at the end of this year if it doesn't meet his standard of passing the highest temperature year in all 4 indices. I am guessing not!

rolleyes.gif
 
In a billion years, the sun will be generating 10% more heat and this place will be toast, so all this bs about global warming is just a lot of anticipatory wrangling over something that is going to happen anyway. Enjoy the milder winters.

A billion years is 50 million generations out, I grant you, but it is still coming and just because most of us on this board probably wont experience this tragic but inevitable consequence of the big bang playing itself out is no reason to get anxious about its possible arrival 4.999,999,999 years early, give or take a little.

Look at the bright side, all that land out in Ector County and around Monahans will be worth a lot more if it is on the coast; so they have that going for them out there.
 
remember how this thread started a few years ago? We were told that there was a good chance that the North Pole might be "ice free" by the summer of 2012…..what are the chances of that happening this summer? In fact, based upon the behavior of the past 4 summers….that seems quite unlikely to happen in the next decade. Sort of amusing.
 
The trend is downward. Why is that a big deal? What if the trend were up? Is it only ok if there is no trend? Do we live in the only time in geological history when there should not be a trend for some reason pasotex?
 
But, sarcasm aside, yes it's increasing. It has been for the past 22K years...in fact, it increased at a MUCH higher rate from then until 8K years ago...since then, it's been a relatively stable and small slope in increase...
 
actually….the latest study I saw from last May said that the sea levels are actually slowing in their rise and possibly for the past 50 years. meaning…that while they are rising, their rate of rise is slowing.
 
That's nice, paso...

Now could you post a link that shows there's been statistically significant warming during that time period? Because that link didn't...

Note that I have not stated that the earth hasn't warmed over the past 150 years...it has...
 
Ok...so, again, I forget...

Are local temperature extremes indicative of AGW or are they not? I get so confused when it seems to change all the time...
 
i went for 15 years which means I had to start in 1997. i don't question warming but i DO question why, if CO2 is the driver you believe it is, we would see 15 years of statistically zero warming.
 
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