North pole to melt this year?

[HornCyclist]

The period im concerned with is the last century when.started admitting.more and more carbon. A blindfold and eadplugs is a perspective but it wont get you very far.

 

[pasotex]

mop5000+ posts09/12/10 11:32 PM
Re: North pole to melt this year? [re: hornpharmd]


ok...so the update is this....it SEEMS (not sure yet) that we have reached our arctic sea ice minimum about 2 days ago. the past 2 days we have seen a 50,000 square kilometer uptick in ice. now.....in the past we have certainly seen this happen and then the ice fade again. in fact, in 2007 the low didn't come until the 24th of September, so i am admittedly calling it a bit early. i will continue to update you.

IF this is the low, it means we saw a decline from 2009's low of about 300,000 square kilometers. 2010 is still above 2008's low by about 250,000 square kilometers and about 700,000 square kilometers above 2007's "lowest on record" (bearing in mind our record on IJIS only goes back about 9 years.). All told we have an overall 30 years' downtrend with a 4 years' uptrend of 700,000 square kilometers. Still we see that the downtrend continues until we see something to break out of this trend.

This year's La Nina should be interesting as temperatures are expected to be significantly lower than we have seen in the Arctic in quite some time and it seems most experts (on both sides of the AGW debate) are expecting some ice increase on the minimum over the next few melt seasons.

I will of course keep you posted as to whether or not this year has actually reached its minimum and from time to time i will report back to let you know how the refreeze is comparing to other years.

 

[MojoMan]

But I thought the ice was supposed to be completely gone by now. Apparently we are just supposed to forget about that or pretend as if it never happened.

 

[pasotex]

Did I ever post this?

 

[MojoMan]

I don't know. Did you?

 

[pasotex]

Nope.

But mop did post about the ice springing back (of course he copied this from Watts).

 

[Bevo Incognito]

Arctic sea ice is at the second lowest level ever recorded this year and may even reach 2007 levels:

The Link

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[zork]

What is the relative sunspot activity for this past year as compared to recorded history? Relevant?

 

[pasotex]

Sunspot activity is very low right now. High sunspot activity means more solar warming (ie right now we are at a low of solar warmth). This is certainly a relevant inquiry, but it supports anthropogenic warming.

 

[Ag with kids]

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[pasotex]

I am a former biology major so certain words just come to me.

 

[pasotex]

It should be rather obvious from this chart that warmth (or better put increased heat retention) particularly since 1970 is being primarily driven by factors other than solar activity.

 

[Texoz]

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[Ag with kids]

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[hornpharmd]

Minimum Actic sea ice extent reached

On 9/9/11. Lowest since 2007. Over 2 million Km^2 less than the 1979-2000 average. Good thing the minimum was reached early this year or would have been even worse.

 

[pasotex]

2011 was the record low minimum for volume. Ice extent is sort of a weird measure that is easier to plot by satellite, but also depends on wind patterns to a large degree. Volume is the better and far more important measure particularly long-term, but it is more difficult to accurately measure.

 

[Texoz]

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[Bevo Incognito]

The Canadian Arctic nearly lost an entire ice shelf, one that has been there since before Canada was settled by whites:

The Link

 

[MojoMan]

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[Bevo Incognito]

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[Ag with kids]

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[Texoz]

You're missing the point.

The CHANGES as a result of the warming temps are occurring faster than predicted.

These changes involve the Arctic region warming much faster than expected. This same region has a huge supply of stored methane in the frozen tundra. As that methane works its way up into the climate equation, your GATA will definitely accelerate, and so will the already increased changes occurring now.

And by the way, nice job of ignoring the "scientists" in the other articles and focusing on your perceived vagueness of the UN publication.

 

[MojoMan]

You just have to believe. Close your mind and believe!

Have faith in these so-called scientists and the planet Earth will be redeemed!

BELIEEEVE!

 

[Texoz]

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[mop]

Been a long time. so the Arctic ice is still near the bottom of the pack. But this is a time of year when all the years are bottlenecked and close to each other. With winter starting brutally early, it should be interesting to see what happens. I will have to switch to the Danish Meteorogical Institute's 30% graph because the other one seems to have gone offline about a month ago. Not sure why and have not gotten an update...

ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

 

[MojoMan]

Everyone keeps making comparisons between the ice cover by year in this graph, but truth be told, the ice cover has been remarkably consistent over the last six years. In fact, the variances from year to year over this period have not been significant at all. Each year, the total ice coverage at any given point has been roughly the same. That's is what I get out of looking at this graph.

ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

 

[pasotex]

 

[Ag with kids]

a) link to some context for this graph, please
b) why 1450 years? Why not 1150 years or 1750 years or any other time span?

 

[pasotex]

Why not ask Kinnard et al.?

The Link

 

[Ag with kids]

Why not provide a link to the study in your other post?