North pole to melt this year?

[pasotex]

Why should I? It took me maybe 20 seconds to find it with google. The name of the lead author is on the graph.

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

And why was the last measurement 12 yrs ago?

 

[Ag with kids]

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[pasotex]

I thought you had all sorts of SEC $$$ coming your way.

 

[Ag with kids]

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[Texoz]

If graphs are good enough for some of you, there's always this point to mull over:The Link

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[Ag with kids]

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[Bevo Incognito]

 

[Texoz]

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[Bronco]

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[Ag with kids]

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[pasotex]

 

[Ag with kids]

So...

Your point is that ice coverage has fluctuated over the past 8 years?

 

[pasotex]

really?

2012 looks a little Mayan-like ominous to me

 

[Ag with kids]

I get confused with this debate. Could you please clarify when a single data point is meaningful and when a single data point is not meaningful?

 

[pasotex]

When a data point is two orders of magnitude below or above the trend it is significant, no?

 

[Ag with kids]

You are correct in saying no...

So, if we were to have a major cooling for just one year, it would be some kind of evidence that refuted AGW?

Heck, on that graphic, it appears the largest extent was in 2011 (maybe the second largest). If that graphic had been shown last year on 6 Feb I don't think it would have shown anything other than what I stated in my first question.

It's a bunch of data points that show fluctuation in ice extent. Last year was high. This year is low.

 

[MojoMan]

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[pasotex]

Statistics and deviations are tricky.

 

[pasotex]

What does this graph tell us?

You have an obvious and statistically significant downward trend. September sea ice extent is heavily influenced by winter ice which this year is by far the lowest it has been in thousands of years. I think our odds of setting a record low in September are pretty high.

 

[Ag with kids]

Now that chart is useful...It does show a decline.

The other chart was useful only to show that the ice coverage on Feb 6 fluctuated from year to year.

 

[pasotex]

How about we combine the two?

 

[Ag with kids]

The first one is kind of useless. The second one gives good information. I'd drop the first one completely if your intention is to show a trend.

Unless your intention is to use the first one as some indication of catastrophe, at which point it's still useless.

 

[pasotex]

How about we revisit this in September?

 

[Ag with kids]

Ok. But, then that first chart will be even more useless, since it only shows ice extent on Feb 6th for the past 8 years. It would have absolutely no bearing on ice extent in September...

 

[pasotex]

You sure about that?

 

[Ag with kids]

Pray tell, please explain why 8 pictures of ice extent on Feb 6 for the past 8 years would have bearing on ice extent in Sept 2012...

 

[pasotex]

You really don't know?

 

[Ag with kids]

You truly have a dizzying intellect. Enlighten me, Vizzinni...

 

[pasotex]

Does the starting point for a melt have any correlation with the ending point?