North pole to melt this year?

by the way, why is it cherry picking to use global (that's 100% of the world) temperatures over a 15 year period because I started a year before a severe El Nino, but it is somehow relevant for you to use a regional area of a nation whose TOTAL surface area of the earth is 2% of the earth?
 
seriously Texoz, your reasoning is hilarious. I give you a GLOBAL 15 year statistical flatline and your come back is to point to a heatwave that covers significantly less than 1% of the surface area of the earth for a week? are you for real? you do realize that my data covered about 78,000 more points of data? (100 times as much area X 52 times as many weeks X 15 years) If this is the best you got, you should probably hang it up for a while.

But yes, me and Ags both agree that there has been warming..just not much for the past 15 years despite a radical increase in CO2 release globally.

But yes, what you have pointed out IS a normal fluctuation of weather and not evidence of climate catastrophe caused by climate change.
 
Mop and Ags with Kids,it's obvious you guys will NEVER agree that there's something abnormal going on with the climate.

The immediate reason behind the warm US/Canadian winter and now record-breaking early spring is an unusual jet stream, which has been occurring more frequently.

Try researching "unusual or extreme jet stream," specifically this winter, the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the Pakistani floods of the same year.

As of 5pm today there are 405 record daily high temps between yesterday and today, from MN to Texas to Florida to New York and back across the Great Lakes to MN.
The Link

More are expected between now and NEXT Thursday.

You guys keep pretending that these anomalies aren't noteworthy while the people who study the climate for a living try to figure out if we're entering a new "normal" where the unprecedented extremes that have been occurring more frequently are here to stay.
 
so tell us the new rule you are introducing bro. if it is local and hot, it is serious and evidence of global warming, but if we have crazy snow records like winter 2010 (1180 snow records set in one week), it is meaningless and just statistical noise? does that about represent it fairly?
crazy.gif
 
wow, incredibly bad luck for the alarmists eh? I mean all of these natural variables overwhelming the incredible warming we have caused!
rolleyes.gif


I wonder why they chose to completely ignore the PDO when it has been in a warm phase until about 2008? Don Easterbrook estimates that the PDO has caused about .5 degrees K rise in temperatures since 1979. add that back in and their entire point falls apart.

but yes, you are correct, the graph you showed is VERY adjusted indeed. Here is the adjusted HADCrut for the past 17 years:

HadCrut Adjusted global temperatures
 
My "blog" linked directly to a peer reviewed paper (and includes illustrations from it) which I guess was just too tricky for you especially since it provides "proof" of the continued warming trend.

And here we can bypass the middle man:

The Link

Do you see the continuing trend or do you want to pretend to be skeptic some more?
 
You are a waste of my time. You wanted something showing statistically significant warming over the past 15 years. You got it. You don't address it other than inane attempts at being cute. Why not actually address the paper?
 
where did i post to a blog? i posted to a site that gives access to all of the world's major data sets regarding temperature. it showed a flatline for 17 years. now explain to me again why that is somehow not useful scientifically?
 
because (1) temperatures are not flat lined for 17 years - this is just flat out false and (2) the temperature trend is pretty much unabated

here is a cool little graphic about down the up escalator that makes fun of cherry picking:

The Link
SkepticsvRealists_500.gif
 
The only form of "debate" is your inability to know what statistically significant is. There has been statistically significant warming over the past 15 years. This is like discussing science with a poodle. I get that you can bark, but this doesn't mean anything.

The Link
 
Well, for the first time, you actually posted something related to what I asked. Thanks.

However, that was for a different time period than mop was referring to...

But, at least it was about statistically significant warming and not other things like you've been posting.

Your condescending attitude is amusing, though. Do you smell your own farts and convince yourself they smell like roses?

rose.gif
 
even Phil Jones admitted that there had NOT been statistical warming….and that was about 2 years ago…but we have had 2 more years without warming (your fun paper notwithstanding)…..so now we have about 17 years of no warming and this year isn't starting out "well" to help your cause. what amazes me is that warming is a reasonable thing to expect with or without man's contribution, so that makes the fact that we have been flat for so long very bizarre. if we continue to warm at a mild rate like we have for the past 200 years, i wouldn't think anything of it, but flat is odd.
 
pasotex, I don't think mop or AwK or anyone else is disagreeing that there has been warming over the last 30-40 years. So going down the up escalator is an issue in this case. But at the same time the last decade and half or so hasn't exhibited warming. I think people are pointing that out, not to disbelieve that the earth's atmosphere has warmed during our lifetimes, but that a flat period COULD signal a point of inflection. The warming trend could also continue after a decade long break and continue to go up. The point being the decade long phenomena SHOULD make us all take a break a see what happens.
 
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