North pole to melt this year?

[pasotex]

There has been statistically significant warming since 1997. You do realize and recognize this now, right?

 

[Ag with kids]

You haven't shown that.

You realize that, right?

 

[Ag with kids]

Again, post a link showing that there has been SSW since 1997. That would be from 1997-2011. Or 1/97-3/12, whichever you prefer.

Showing a link that shows SSW from 1995-2010 does not meet the criteria.

The earth has warmed over the last 150 years. I agree with that. The earth warmed from 1995-2010. I agree with that.

Hell, the earth might still be warming now. However, SSW has not occurred since 1997.

 

[pasotex]

Can you read?In reply to:

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[pasotex]

How about we try this bit of fun? Have temperatures been flat for the past 15 years?

What is the trend and what would it need to be to be statistically significant? Thrill me with your acumen.

 

[mop]

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[mop]

here is the 15 years from 1997 through 2011 and whatever is included from this year:

HadCrut 3 global temperature graph

 

[Ag with kids]

In reply to:

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[pasotex]

Can it answer the questions?

 

[Ag with kids]

Are you saying can it show evidence of SSW from 1997-2011? If that's the case, then no, you last link does not.

 

[pasotex]

Rinse, wash, repeat

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[Ag with kids]

Ok. So, now that you haven't been able to cite evidence of SSW from 1997-present, you're going after the misdirection angle. Nice lawyer trick.

 

[Bevo Incognito]

Projected high of 75 about 30 miles from the Canadian border in Williston, North Dakota today.

I got a call from a buddy of mine in the Bakken and he said everybody is wearing short sleeves and that absolutely nobody can believe it.

 

[Ag with kids]

But, I suppose I'll play your game for shits and giggles...

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[Ag with kids]

Ddp

 

[pasotex]

I am still less than thrilled (and you are wrong on the statistics to boot). Can you add some actual numbers and reference an actual data set? I personally prefer GISS, but you can select one of several. What is the trend over the past 30, 20, 15, and 10 years?

 

[Bevo Incognito]

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[Ag with kids]

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[pasotex]

You have failed to answer my questions (probably because you can't) and you cannot read three links and counting. I guess we are done.

 

[Ag with kids]

Ah...now moving onto dismissal when you fail to actually provide what I asked.

This thread has been amusing.

Mop posts A. You say A is false. I ask for evidence that A is false. You provide a link to B. I point out that B != A. You post a link to C. I point out that C != A. You the post a link to D. I again point out that D != A. Plus, you add your condescending attitude of you're wrong, I'm right and you're stupid and I'm smart.

No wonder you lawyers like to strike engineers from juries...we actually expect you to prove what you state and not other side issues...

Not one of those three links you provided shows evidence of SSW from 1997-present. Two are completely unrelated and one, while related to SSW, gives a different time period. If you think they show evidence of SSW you should read them again...

And yet, you are arrogant enough to think you're proving your case with insults, strawmen and misdirection...

So, again, please provide a link showing evidence of SSW from 1997-present.

And, FWIW, I HAVE answered your questions...well, except for the last set...mainly because you refuse to provide what I've asked for and instead reply with multiple questions that are tangential to the issue at hand...you've done that several times on this thread. I suppose it's a tactic you use often in your job, but it gets tiresome...

 

[mop]

hey guys, my studies have been in philosophy and theology. I can't do any formal statistics. all i can do is eyeball a graph and see that it is virtually flat. but i know that this can be a mistaken viewpoint. so please Texoz, use Hadcrut3 data (like I am using), start with 1997 (like I have been doing) and then tell me about the statistically significant warming we have experienced. tell me the per decade rise in temperature we have seen since 1997 and tell me what confidence factor we can ascribe to that rate of rise. I am curious, since you have been insisting over and over that we HAVE experienced statistically significant warming, for you to show us what you mean. can you?

when i put that data in and add the linear rise, it looks barely perceptible in its rise so i have a difficult time seeing how that could possibly be statistically significant. here is the graph again for any others that are following this conversation:

Hadcrut 3 1997-2012

 

[Ag with kids]

Mop, FWIW, I think you're referring to pasotex, not Texoz...

 

[mop]

oops! yes, AWK, you are correct! Sorry Texoz, I mean Pasotex.

 

[mop]

man Paso…you sure are taking a long time to answer the very question you put to AWK. Do you not know how to answer it either? I am waiting for you to show us the statistical analysis that led you to so confidently declare that there has been statistically significant warming in the past 15 years.

 

[Ag with kids]

The site is biased, but, the report goes to the argument about whether there has been any statistically significant warming in the past 15 years.

Nope...there hasn't been

 

[mop]

Paso sure had a lot of bravado for a guy who can't come back and prove that there HAS been statistically significant warming. I was all ready to hear his argument but I guess he doesn't have one?

 

[mop]

the polar bear situation has been overstated severely it would seem:
plenty of polar bears still around

 

[pasotex]

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[mop]

so after all of your bluster, you dig up an article that I have already read? I want you to tell us what the trend is from 1997-2012 with the Hadcrut 3 series. Go ahead! Let's "get into this" if you know how. I have already said, I am ignorant of how to determine a trend and so I am asking for your help. No articles, no vague quotes from Phil Jones, just do the analysis and show your work to tell us the trend. Or has all the talk up to now been merely bravado? Do you know how to determine a trend? If you do, is it the fact that the trend is TINY that worries you? I don't know how to do the math, but I feel fairly certain by looking that if there is a statistically significant trend, it is not very large.

 

[mop]

by the way, my consistent date parameters have been the past 15 years…I have therefore been starting with 1997 (the year AHEAD of the big El Nino that is still the warmest year on record in 2 of 4 global records) and up through the end of 2011. that is 15 calendar years. You linked to an article that started in 1995 and went through 2010….which is fine, but it isn't the past 15 years.