Here's the 11am (EDT) wording from the NHC.
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS
OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE
THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME
WARM GULF EDDIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN
GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
The Link
If you're familiar with these type of postings, you'll know that they make conservative predictions. They're not in the business to sell news. They try their best not to cry wolf because when they really do need to sound the alarm, they want to people to believe them.
Bottom line, they're predicting a major cane will hit the coast 72hrs from now. When you get that close to impact, the odds are very high that they will be correct.
The other concern too is that the computer models are having a hard time figuring out when Ike will make a turn to the north. It could be after landfall, or it could be a few hours before, which would put him in either Corpus or near Galveston. That would be very ugly if that happens.