Some thoughts on the election. I looked at the exit polling
data, and a few things are clear. First, as obnoxious as Trump's rhetoric is to some (myself included), its impact was overblown. It was commonly assumed that he would motivate blacks, Latinos, and Asians to turn out for Hillary in big numbers as they did for Obama or even more so. That very clearly didn't happen. It seemed to bother pretentious white liberals in urban areas a lot more than it bothered actual minority voters.
Second, Trump's message of economic populism created inroads in lower income brackets - strongly outperforming Romney. Those inroads were obviously decisive in picking up Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The reverse was true of upper income voters, but there are fewer of them.
Third, later deciders (last 1 - 2 months) probably made the difference for Trump. That means Kellyanne Conway might be the best political strategist in the world.
Fourth, women voters aren't nearly as driven by identity politics as the political establishment believed, and other than liberal women who were already partisan Democrats, they didn't give a crap about "making history." (If they did, they didn't want to make history with such a crappy woman.) Hillary won the women's vote, but she expected a blowout and didn't get it. In fact, she did worse than Obama did.
Finally, voters cared about change more than experience or even good judgment.
More things that I think are clear . . .
1. I'll start with something I was actually right about. Hillary Clinton is the most overrated presidential candidate in a century. I remember hearing about how her election was "inevitable" and how broad her appeal was. I never understood that. Yes, she is anatomically female, but she has always been uninspiring, very unlikable, and had ethical problems. I think that showed this entire campaign. She is terrible.
2. Economic and fiscal conservatism no longer have a political party. Cultural conservatism and cultural nationalism (not the same as white nationalism) do.
3. I think Hillary's talk about Trump's extremism was undermined by her own extremism. She ran a rhetorically moderate campaign, but her actual positions on Trump's most controversial issues were extreme. Trump was all over the map on immigration and called for mass deportations at his most extreme point. It was fair to criticize him for that, but Hillary called for virtually ending deportations. That was every bit as extreme, and most prefer extreme enforcement of the laws rather than extreme disregard for the law. On a similar issue, Trump called for banning Muslims. That's stupid, but calling for expanding Muslim immigration is even stupider. On abortion, Trump called for punishing women, but Hillary called for a virtually absolute right to abortion at any stage. In short, she answered Trump's extremism not with moderation but with more objectionable extremism.
4. Having a good ground game is an asset, but it won't overcome a nominee with tepid support. It's better to have a poor ground game but a nominee with rabid support.
5. The Bradley Effect was real in this election, which skewed the polls. I did predict this but only by a point or two. What actually occurred was much more substantial.
6. Though limited and somewhat narrow, I think Trump has a mandate. He can pull back on the deportations some, but the wall must be built before anything else, whether that's a smart thing to do or not. He has to make a major initiative on trade policy. I don't think your average voter has any friggin' clue what that looks like, but it needs to happen. I think he needs to appoint staunch conservatives to the federal courts. I think he needs to make a meaningful increase in defense spending but coupled with greater skepticism of global organizations. He has to repeal Obamacare and replace it with . . . oops (to quote Rick Perry). Fortunately for him, he offered very little in specifics on the issue. He could go with a single payer system and get away with it. Unfortunately, meaningful retirement reform is dead and probably for the long term. The good news is that Social Security and Medicare will probably be going strong when I become eligible in 25 years. The bad news is that Deez, Jr. will probably be paying a 30 percent FICA tax to finance the programs. I think he has to pursue Hillary Clinton for criminal wrongdoing, though I think Obama will pardon her at the last minute.
7. This election may become a political realignment. Flipping Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is a very big deal. Furthermore, he had coattails in those states, which likely saved Pat Toomey and Ron Johnson.
8. The political media is a disgrace. I was anti-Trump, but they were absolutely ridiculous in their blatant unfairness and bias. They could have torn him a new one with mere objectivity. Instead, they had to be laughably one-sided and phony, and I think that has blown their already weak credibility for a long, long time. Furthermore, their rabid political correctness and sympathy for identity politics and SJWs has caused most people to tune them out. That's why nobody cared when they ripped Trump except people who already hated Republicans in general.
As for me, I'm going to try to be positive. Before bed, I offered a simple prayer - that God's will be done in this election regardless of my own predictions or wishes. I have to assume that occurred and therefore try to see the good and be hopeful. I like seeing the pretentious liberal hypocrites and "wolf criers" discredited. I like that we at least might have a conservative Supreme Court for the long term. I like that we'll have some much-needed infrastructural improvements.
I'm afraid of what our foreign policy will look like. I'm afraid of what our national debt will look like. I'm afraid that the GOP has built a coalition that won't last long term and that in 4 years, we'll be facing a bitter backlash.
But most of all, I like that this election is over. I really hated it.
