Election Day

big turnout

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Makes you wonder how Trump will govern without anyone to fight with - with the House and the Senate on his side... does he go declare war on Paul Ryan and "destroy his enemies"? Or does he build a consensus and make some serious progress while he has the numbers (which let's be frank, are most likely to disappear at the midterms.)
 
Mr. Deez said:
Since I'm 6 hours ahead of the East Coast, I'm definitely not staying up to watch the dumpster burst into flames. So if Trump wins and I'm not here defending myself against the smack talk, it's because I'm asleep......Gute Nacht.
Click to expand...

quitter
 
Trump was VASTLY outspent.
Had no real campaign ground game.
Was down in most of the polls.
Remarkable
Historical
 
ProdigalHorn said:
Makes you wonder how Trump will govern without anyone to fight with - with the House and the Senate on his side... does he go declare war on Paul Ryan and "destroy his enemies"? Or does he build a consensus and make some serious progress while he has the numbers (which let's be frank, are most likely to disappear at the midterms.)
Click to expand...
Dems have huge numbers to defend in Senate
 
I'll readily admit I was very, very wrong about the prognosticatin'. Then again, I'm always pretty wrong about the football record in the prediction thread, so I don't think I'm the one people should look towards in matters like these.

Between Drew Linzer and Sam Wang and pretty much everyone else that predicted 51/51 correctly the last couple years, the biggest factor seems to be underestimating white people. The polls work out very well when you use nice little equations to count for demographic groups, but when rural votes are up 10 percent from 2012, there's not a polling service in the country that calls up the counties with <5K people where Trump swept the floor to the tune of +50 percent of the vote. Those votes add up in places like PA and WI and NC. Black turnout is also down, and about 8 percent less for HRC than Obama.

Another thing that probably wasn't discussed enough at the Convention stage was making sure Bernie voters actually cared enough to switch to HRC when the cards were down. WI is the biggest example of this. Honestly, I think some of them switched to Trump and flat out never mentioned their intent to do so once August came and went. The September gains by Trump that were "negated" by the ***** comments and harassment claims were a wash with Wikileaks and Comey. Pollsters put too much stock into Access Hollywood's harms and not enough on anything Clinton could possibly do to repair her image, too.

I actually kind of look forward to what could happen in a Trump presidency. I don't think I'll be any better or worse off as I'm pretty squarely in the "20 percent." If anything, I hope both parties learned something from this cycle about the primary selection process and why it's important to have policies that make a candidate electable.

Side note: interesting lawsuits abound if the GA faithless elector follows through with her threat. The 269 tie that might happen becomes a 269-268 win for HRC? We're gonna see people burn **** down.
 
Blaming Nate Silver for what the polls were showing is like blaming the refrigerator for not telling you that you were hungry for pizza instead of chicken. If anything, he was a lot more cautious about HRC's chances tonight, compared to sites like Dailykos and the Princeton Election Consortium. Sam Wang has to eat a bug on a televised interview.
 
Latest projection is Trump -1. Close enough for hand grenades.
 
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