Election Day

I do believe Trump pulls it off. There are going to be some surprises today that no one seen coming. I still stick with my original prediction a few weeks back that Minnesota goes to Trump.
 
Can we all agree that carrying a sidearm into the polling station, in particular at an elementary school, is a bad idea?

 
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Can we all agree that carrying a sidearm into thepolling station, in particular on at an elementary school, is a bad idea?
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If you cannot handle voting and show up to an elementary school with a side arm, maybe you shouldnt vote.
 
The legal challenges around voting continue. The Trump campaign filed a lawsuit last night in NV against Clark County alleging they extended the hours of early voting polling stations. The County responded that they didn't extend the hours but rather allowed those already in line at the time of closing to complete their voting. The Trump campaign has asked a judge for an order to keep those ballots for those who voted after the official closing time separate until the problem is resolved.
 
mchammer said:
How do people know this? Exit polling? You get the final results when the results for a precinct are posted
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Fivethirtyeight.com says that exit polling data won't be available for another 3.5hrs.

Don’t Believe Everything You Read
We’re now three and a half hours until we get our first look at exit poll data. That data is currently under quarantine. I remember a time, however, when that data could leak it out. Back in 2004, the very first wave of exit polls suggested by mid-afternoon that Democrat John Kerry was well on his way to defeating Republican President George W. Bush. Many people believed that the exits were right, and it even caused massive movement in the stock market. It turned out that the data was wrong. The exit polls overestimated Kerry’s support, and Bush went on to to win a small but comfortable victory.

That should serve as a lesson both at 5 p.m. and now. We won’t know who is going to win until the votes are actually counted. Don’t believe in reports you read online that supposedly give you a keen insight of who is going to win. No one knows.
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Seattle Husker said:
If Trump wins, you know what I won't enjoy? The stock market tumble. One set of researchers are projecting an interim 12% drop in the market if Trump wins.
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That means buying opportunities for those so inclined...just like Brexit was a great time to load up on some of the bank stocks that have rebounded well enough to have made THAT a profitable move.
 
If you're fortunate to have cash on hand to go buy, good for you. Unfortunately, I'm already tied up in stocks that to sell would be taking the tax hit.
 
Seattle Husker said:
If you're fortunate to have cash on hand to go buy, good for you. Unfortunately, I'm already tied up in stocks that to sell would be taking the tax hit.
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You should have reallocated to fixed income in your tax-exempt accounts a month or two ago and waited to see what would happen. If there's a buying opportunity, huge upside. If the market doesn't do anything, you really don't lose anything.
 
If Trump wins, you know what I won't enjoy? The stock market tumble. One set of researchers are projecting an interim 12% drop in the market if Trump wins.
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Oh, those Democrats, what haven't they tried?

If would be worth Trump winning just to watch the meltdown on msnbc and cnn. Rachel Madcow and Chris Matthews would be suicidal.

Oh, and Megyn Kelly, would probably have to do some crawfishing too.
 
Welcome to the 2016 General election.

anxious-americans.png
 
Seattle Husker said:
If Trump wins, you know what I won't enjoy? The stock market tumble. One set of researchers are projecting an interim 12% drop in the market if Trump wins.
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Sometimes God lends a hand... as it happened, I had just transferred my account from a 401K to an IRA after being laid off. BUT I hadn't had a chance to assign the allocation yet, so it's allll sitting there in cash. (It ain't exactly Fort Knox, but still...) So there's no way I'm doing any of that until after a couple more days at least.
 
texas_ex2000 said:
You should have reallocated to fixed income in your tax-exempt accounts a month or two ago and waited to see what would happen. If there's a buying opportunity, huge upside. If the market doesn't do anything, you really don't lose anything.
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Yep, that is what I did in July
 
Yep, Michigan or Pennsylvania...I see a Trump surprise in one of those from the working class coming out in droves.
 
ProdigalHorn said:
Sometimes God lends a hand... as it happened, I had just transferred my account from a 401K to an IRA after being laid off. BUT I hadn't had a chance to assign the allocation yet, so it's allll sitting there in cash. (It ain't exactly Fort Knox, but still...) So there's no way I'm doing any of that until after a couple more days at least.
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I can't remember the source but the researchers claimed to be following the stock market through the General election process and devised an algorithm (simple, according to them) to predict this. They tied the stock market movement to seminal moments in the general election (i.e. Trump's poor performance in Debate #1, Comey's testifying to congress recommending no charges vs. HRC, etc). Their algorithm correctly predicted the dip 11 days ago when Comey announced the HRC investigation was reopened.

It's a good idea to hold for the moment. As others have said, if Trump wins it could be a good buying opportunity. I'll personally be holding awhile and hope it fully bounces back by next Summer if Trump wins. My eldest is starting college in the Fall.
 
Durham County, NC has asked to extend voting time by 90 minutes due to a technical glitch.

North Carolina's Durham County requests extra voting time due to glitch
From CNN's Devon Sayers:

The Durham County Board of Elections has unanimously recommended that voting should be extended in the county by 90 minutes after a glitch in the electronic voter check system. Because of the issue, the county was forced to switch to paper roll books, Durham County Board of Elections spokesperson Briana Khan told CNN.
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So, what's the takeaway from this election day? Selfies are likely illegal in the voting booth in your state for polling stations. Why? Is it because their worried about people taking pictures of others to determine who they voted for?
 
Another interesting tidbit from fivethirtyeight.com. Could the polls be vastly under-representing latinos in Florida and Nevada?

Spanish-Speaking Latinos Are More Pro-Clinton
Nevada — don’t worry, I said it right — is a key state to watch tonight: It has closely contested races up and down the ballot. In recent years, though, the state has been home to some well-known polling errors. In 2010, polls showed Sharron Angle unseating Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid, but they were off by more than 8 percentage points. In the 2012 presidential race, the polls were off by almost 4 percentage points. Even though some leading pollsters put Trump ahead in Nevada, he isn’t the favorite there.

One potential reason for the polling errors? Not all polls interview Spanish-speaking voters, and their attitudes differ from English-speaking Latinos. With the support of the Russell Sage Foundation, Cheryl Kaiser, Efrén Pérez and I just completed a survey conducted through GfK of 452 Latino adults. Thirty-five percent of our respondents took the survey in Spanish, while the remainder took it in English. And attitudes differ markedly between the two groups. Among those taking the survey in English, 51 percent backed Clinton to 18 percent for Trump, giving Clinton a 33 percentage-point margin. But among Spanish speakers, the gulf was much more pronounced, with 74 percent supporting Clinton versus just 7 percent for Trump. The gap diminishes slightly when we restrict the sample to respondents who were listed in voter registration files as of Spring 2016. Still, among that group of Spanish-speaking registered voters, Clinton bests Trump 69 percent to 11 percent.

So don’t be surprised if Clinton outperforms some polls conducted only in English, especially in states with sizable numbers of Spanish-speaking voters.
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The polls that used both languages depending on the respondent were not out of line with the others in Florida.
 
Seattle Husker said:
So, what's the takeaway from this election day? Selfies are likely illegal in the voting booth in your state for polling stations. Why? Is it because their worried about people taking pictures of others to determine who they voted for?
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So Justin Timberlake and Marylin Mosby are the two prominent people I have seen who are guilty of breaking the law. Since both are democrats, the law does not apply, right? Just trying to get on board with the HRC administration.
 
Joe, where have you been? It's the most important day in 4 years and you've been AWOL. LOL
 
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