UT vs Washington Preview

mchammer said:
I read he is not as effective, missing on his passes, etc.
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Stats seem to bear this out somewhat. Of course, stats can tell whatever story you want them to tell, to some extent.

First 7 games - Avg passing yards per game - 368, Avg comp % 70.8%, Avg QB Rating - 180.5
Last 6 games - Avg passing yards per game - 274 Avg comp % 59.8%, Avg QB rating - 141.8
To be fair, back half competition was better.
 
He seems to be flustered by good pressure from the D-front.

UW's OL aren't great run blockers at all, but they pick up blitzes pretty well, and generally give Penix enough time to throw.

They're very dangerous when they throw deep to those big (and talented) WRs.
 
And the Trojans couldn't wrap him up.




well............................

its-all-downhill-from-here-danny-devito.gif
 
Chop said:
But not the USC defense.
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Right, but they didn't have to throw it against them. They ran the ball and had 316 yards rushing against them. By far their largest rushing total of the year. Their next highest rushing game was 177 yards against Michigan State and they averaged 125 yards rushing on the year. USC defense is sooo bad.
 
horn_fan_cpa said:
Right, but they didn't have to throw it against them. They ran the ball and had 316 yards rushing against them. By far their largest rushing total of the year. Their next highest rushing game was 177 yards against Michigan State and they averaged 125 yards rushing on the year. USC defense is sooo bad.
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Uh huh.:yes: UW does not have a good ground game offense. It's just that USC was that horrendously bad on defense this year--an embarrassment. Rice, SFA, UTEP, and Lamar had better defenses than USC this year.
 
My review of Penix's stats sent me down a statistical rabbit hole. Here's a summary some may find interesting. It compares the ranking of the 2 team's offense and defense as compared to the average ranking of the offenses and defenses they faced. Maybe spells out what we already know. Our offense and defense are pretty good (except for our pass defense :(). Their pass defense is even worse, even though the average prowess of the passing offenses we've faced is about the same. Their rushing offense is not good, even though they haven't faced stellar rush defenses.

upload_2023-12-6_10-1-52.png
 
horn_fan_cpa said:
My review of Penix's stats sent me down a statistical rabbit hole. Here's a summary some may find interesting. It compares the ranking of the 2 team's offense and defense as compared to the average ranking of the offenses and defenses they faced. Maybe spells out what we already know. Our offense and defense are pretty good (except for our pass defense :(). Their pass defense is even worse, even though the average prowess of the passing offenses we've faced is about the same. Their rushing offense is not good, even though they haven't faced stellar rush defenses.

upload_2023-12-6_10-1-52.png
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Good chart.

Now, skip through all the crap and go straight to the last column: scoring offense and scoring defense.

Scoring offense: Them #11, Us #16 (and they played against slightly worse defenses)

Scoring defense: Them #50, Us #13 (HUGE difference, and they played against slightly worse offenses)
 
horn_fan_cpa said:
My review of Penix's stats sent me down a statistical rabbit hole. Here's a summary some may find interesting. It compares the ranking of the 2 team's offense and defense as compared to the average ranking of the offenses and defenses they faced. Maybe spells out what we already know. Our offense and defense are pretty good (except for our pass defense :(). Their pass defense is even worse, even though the average prowess of the passing offenses we've faced is about the same. Their rushing offense is not good, even though they haven't faced stellar rush defenses.

upload_2023-12-6_10-1-52.png
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So we both pass all over each other.

But only we also run the ball on them.
 
We've got Bert Auburn, but they've also got a good kicker--Grady Gross.

There are no easy opponents in the Final 4.
 
I heard a good suggestion where we should drop one of our safeties and put in an extra CB since they don't like to run. Makes good sense.
 
I wouldn't put too much stock in season statistics or late season trends when there is almost 30 days off from the last game for each team. Those might mean more if there was a two-week break. With the month break, the Cfp is a new (hopefully) two-game season.
 
Garmel said:
I heard a good suggestion where we should drop one of our safeties and put in an extra CB since they don't like to run. Makes good sense.
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The way Texas DB's are heading to the Portal plus the half suspension, Texas might have to convert so LB's and RB's just to field a 2 deep defensive backfield.

What is going on? Is the issue Gideon or Coach K?
 
ViperHorn said:
The way Texas DB's are heading to the Portal plus the half suspension, Texas might have to convert so LB's and RB's just to field a 2 deep defensive backfield.

What is going on? Is the issue Gideon or Coach K?
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Catalon is literally the only loss that impacts us. Brice played in two blowout games. Allen played meaningless snaps in two games. That's it. Am I missing someone?
 
ViperHorn said:
The way Texas DB's are heading to the Portal plus the half suspension, Texas might have to convert so LB's and RB's just to field a 2 deep defensive backfield.

What is going on? Is the issue Gideon or Coach K?
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I'm with @X Misn Tx on this. I don't see the need for alarm, nor for pointing fingers at Gideon/Kwiatkowski.

If there is another name or two I am unaware of, then yeah, I see your point.
 
X Misn Tx said:
Catalon is literally the only loss that impacts us.
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Is it really an impact if he never plays? I said in a post at the beginning of the season he has zero tackling skills and his method is to come in like a rocket to hit. I was wondering how healthy he would be. Of course, he was never healthy. If he would learn how to tackle he could be an awesome player.
 
yeah. I do think Catalon and half of Williams (suspension) will have an impact. I think they play another CB (or LB if they have good cover skills against TEs) since Washington doesn't run well.
 
M. Blackwell is very fast for a LB. Probably SS speed at least. He may play deeper than normal, or out on the edge more than normal, and be a "coverage first" position this game. Maybe a hybrid LB/SS type for the Washington game?
 
Look at who is coming in for answers about DB angst. Mukuba, likely. Black, almost certainly. Filsaime, likely. Johnson Rubel, done. Santana, done. Williams will be great. If you are down the depth chart now nothing short of a bus wreck is going to help. Kids want to play even if it is UTSA.
 
WorsterMan said:
THIS gives me hope Sark and Coach K will watch film of the AZ State game (and others) to come up with a really good game plan to attack both sides of the ball. In the end this could come down to ST and Auburn's foot.
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Coach K was at WU from 2014-2020. Any carryover of knowledge? I wonder?
 
Chinstrap said:
Coach K was at WU from 2014-2020. Any carryover of knowledge? I wonder?
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This is the sort of offense his schemes are geared to slow down. Nobody but ASU has stopped Penix and UW's offense, but some have kept him in check.

Holding them to under 30 should result in a W for us. Holding them to under 20 would be a major victory. Red zone D is central to this, and it's one of our strong points.

The other side of this is that Steve and his offense, and those talented RBs and WRs isolated in the flats (and elsewhere), are tailor made to torch UW's defense. We should put between 30-48 points on them.

Oh yeah--Our RBs break tackles. UW's defenders are below-average tacklers.
 
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