Russia attacking Ukraine 2/16?

[Chop]

Valery Gerasimov - Wikipedia

Here's a likely candidate in the event Putin goes away: Valery Gerasimov -- Chief of the General Staff of the Russian military. He is a Tatar (a Central-Asian Russian). He came up the ranks as a tank/armor officer in the Russian Far East. Worked some diplomacy with the Turks in relation to the Syrian war.

He issued the "Gerasimov Doctrine" calling for a 4:1 ratio of non-military to military actions when taking on an enemy, and described in the wiki-link below:

Gerasimov doctrine - Wikipedia

He has much experience in killing Ukrainians:

"Gerasimov was in fact the general commander of all elements of Russian forces and also the pro-Russian insurgents during their decisive strategic victory in the Battle of Ilovaisk in 2014, where over 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed."

"I vill kill you weak Americans..."

 

[Chop]

The jaunt into Ukraine resulted in crippling Russia economically. It's resulted in the West isolating them. Hollywood (and International corollaries) have pulled out of Russia forcing theaters to show Russian ballet. Lines at Ikea yesterday were immense as they are picking up stakes. Go down the list and companies are fleeing as fast as possible. Outside of a developed energy sector, Russia is in the process of being thrown back to the 60's and 70's economically. They are looking at a USSR economy without the benefit of trading with many puppet states. That will handcuff Putin or his replacement.

Will China come to Russia's aid? They'll try to help as long as it's not transparent. Chinese only care about China, moreso than any other country on Earth. If there is potential of collateral damage sanctions China will try to stay neutral.

I don't know if Russia can psychologically handle becoming China's b!tch...

 

[Seattle Husker]

I don't know if Russia can psychologically handle becoming China's b!tch...

After seeing Russia's military performance to date in Ukraine, there is a lot of psychological damage they'll need to deal with. The Russian military is a blunt force object. They have no strategic capability. They tried for a week only to suffer major logistic problems, demonstrate how decrepit their land arsenal is, and show the low morale of their conscripts to the whole world.

So, they are returning their former successes in Georgia and Chechnya. Overwhelm the enemy, raze cities and terrorize/kill civilians.

 

[Chop]

 

[Chop]

They have no strategic capability.

Well, I can think of one very big strategic capability they have.

 

[Monahorns]

Make no mistake, the Oligarchs are experiencing lasting wealth impacts. Will they be impacted in their day to day lives? They won't go hungry or have less staff. If their luxury houses and yachts around the world get seized it will piss them off but also will have minimal impact. Still, these ambitious individuals measure themselves based on their obscene wealth, the lifestyle that comes with $150M yachts. They certainly will be less than pleased at the deprecation of both.

I'm not concerned about the ego of oligarchs. I am concerned about the poor Russias who will starve and freeze.

 

[Monahorns]

Can all of us except @Musburger1 agree that this might be good in principle but should have remained an inside voice? Openly cheering for the assassination of other countries leaders is not representative of American ideals.

It is very irresponsible to say out loud.

Also, it is now more plausible for Putin to think that the US does have designs to threaten Putin. We can't say he knows the US/NATO won't attack when those in power over here are saying things like this. I wonder if there is more evidence of this?

 

[Monahorns]

While most of us think Putin needs to go, based on your posting history you wouldn't be supportive of a Russian executed assassination of Putin.

You didn't ask me. But anything that would lead to peace. There are some in the Russian government who are more pro-war than Putin. If one of those guys comes to power it would be worse. If a group that wants to stabilize and pursue peace come into power, it would be a good thing.

 

[Seattle Husker]

I'm not concerned about the ego of oligarchs. I am concerned about the poor Russias who will starve and freeze.

It's a near certainty that Russian's will starve and freeze, sadly. Does that mean you don't put the sanctions in place? Thousands, likely hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will die due only to the decision of 1 person. Sanctions impact the people of the country and hopefully mobilized them to put pressure on their leaders to change course. We won't know their effectiveness for several months. Next winter will be the hardest for Russia.

 

[Monahorns]

After seeing Russia's military performance to date in Ukraine, there is a lot of psychological damage they'll need to deal with. The Russian military is a blunt force object. They have no strategic capability. They tried for a week only to suffer major logistic problems, demonstrate how decrepit their land arsenal is, and show the low morale of their conscripts to the whole world.

Correct. They have little ability to project power outside their borders. They are a threat to the small countries surrounding them. They are no threat to Western Europe or the US. The only thing they could do there is launch nukes. That doesn't win them a war though. Stalemate at best if they know they will die anyway.

But that's my whole point. They don't threaten the US except if they are mad enough to launch nukes. So why not keep that possibility to 0%?

 

[Monahorns]

It's a near certainty that Russian's will starve and freeze, sadly. Does that mean you don't put the sanctions in place? Thousands, likely hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will die due only to the decision of 1 person. Sanctions impact the people of the country and hopefully mobilized them to put pressure on their leaders to change course. We won't know their effectiveness for several months. Next winter will be the hardest for Russia.

Sanctions don't help Ukraine. They don't hurt the Russian army's capabilities. I think they set up ways to finance through China. If the only thing they do is harm poor people, there is no reason to do it. If there is a way to do it that targets Russia's war making capability, then sure.

Sanctions won't motivate normal Russians to pressure the government. First, Russians are already protesting. They don't want it. Second, if US or Western sanctions cause harm to normal people, that will turn them against the US/West not their own government.

 

[Monahorns]

Russia is already starting to have problems. I heard a Ukrainian say they thought Russia would mount a 10 day attack and then faces problems. The duration might have been off but the maybe the principle was correct.

 

[OUBubba]

If your family was counted in the number of those labeled as "collatoral damage" in Iraq, you'd think so. It's all about perspective.

In hindsight, you go take out the Taliban and you get back out. You take out OBL just like we did, with good intel and a surgical extraction when you find him. His goal was to become a martyr and to poke the bear and suck us into a protracted battle in the middle east. Leaving Saddam in place without fangs was probably preferable to the vacuum that we have created.

I do want to clarify. I was NOT against Iraq at the time and I don't think people who supported it were nefarious. I just think it was poor longterm foreign policy. I'm not clairvoyant.

 

[Seattle Husker]

Correct. They have little ability to project power outside their borders. They are a threat to the small countries surrounding them. They are no threat to Western Europe or the US. The only thing they could do there is launch nukes. That doesn't win them a war though. Stalemate at best if they know they will die anyway.

But that's my whole point. They don't threaten the US except if they are mad enough to launch nukes. So why not keep that possibility to 0%?

You know that and I know that. Does Putin? I'm not convinced that he's ready to accept that Russia's military is one reliant on 40yr old armaments, at least what he's using in Ukraine. Russia wants everyone to believe they can project power globally. Their national identity depends on it. Russia has entered into another Afghanistan, a war that humbled them for a generation. Clearly Putin forgot the lessons of that war and Ukraine is a refresher.

 

[Seattle Husker]

Sanctions don't help Ukraine. They don't hurt the Russian army's capabilities. I think they set up ways to finance through China. If the only thing they do is harm poor people, there is no reason to do it. If there is a way to do it that targets Russia's war making capability, then sure.

Sanctions won't motivate normal Russians to pressure the government. First, Russians are already protesting. They don't want it. Second, if US or Western sanctions cause harm to normal people, that will turn them against the US/West not their own government.

Sanctions don't harm Russian military capabilities? Not immediately but when they are forced to donate finite resources to supplying food and heat to it's citizens those are resources that can't go to the military, supporting the current war or future technology needs. Russia's ability to project power in places like Syria and Eastern Ukraine were done with $$. Ground resources in Syria were mercenaries and conscripts. The only thing truly Russian was the air power. These sanctions will remove any ability to fight the war with conscripts.

An underreported story right now is not the refugees leaving Ukraine but rather people fleeing Russia. They are experiencing a brain drain like they've never seen before. Westernized middle class citizens, tech workers who have the $$ and ability to relocate.

The Arab Spring, Orange Revolution and other countless large population protests have proven that change can occur even if the leaders try to quell it. Russia has been on the precipice of change with protests led by Navalny and others but quelled it.

 

[Monahorns]

Putin had no reason to think US/NATO would ever attack Russia. Right?
The context of this video isn't clear, but it is US politicians promising to fight against Russia through Ukraine. Why would the Russian government ever feel threatened by that?

 

[iatrogenic]

And taking this further, should Russia survive this, it plays into the hands of ending the US dollar reign as world currency. Other countries will want to find ways to get out of the present arrangement. The dollar is now used as a financial weapon to subjugate potential opponents. Who the hell feels safe with that arrangement?

Uh ...let's see....everyone except the commies.

 

[Seattle Husker]

Putin had no reason to think US/NATO would ever attack Russia. Right?
The context of this video isn't clear, but it is US politicians promising to fight against Russia through Ukraine. Why would the Russian government ever feel threatened by that?

Context is everything. In 2016, Russia had taken Crimea and was supporting rebels in Donetsk and Luhansk. Those fighters were actively fighting Russian mercenaries using Russian armaments on Ukraine soil. If Russia felt threatened then they were threatened that the US was helping push them out of Ukraine.

There isn't an iota of evidence of threat to Russian land in that video. And that's saying a lot coming from those two war hawks.

 

[Seattle Husker]

Russia blocks country's access to Facebook

Russia's march to becoming a larger more powerful North Korea continues.

 

[Monahorns]

You know that and I know that. Does Putin? I'm not convinced that he's ready to accept that Russia's military is one reliant on 40yr old armaments, at least what he's using in Ukraine. Russia wants everyone to believe they can project power globally. Their national identity depends on it. Russia has entered into another Afghanistan, a war that humbled them for a generation. Clearly Putin forgot the lessons of that war and Ukraine is a refresher.

I think they do, because of this.

To project military power a country has to have an economy that can support large scale war over a large geographic area. The GDP chart shows that Russia's economy is relatively small compared to the US and the EU. Russia's economy overall is bigger than UK or France individually.
But per capita GDP shows that Russia's economy is bigger than those 3 countries just because they have a much larger population. That population has to have money for food and shelter though.
That brings up the third chart which multiplies the first 2 together. This is one way to estimate "disposable surplus" which is the money that can be used for things like waging war. It shows that Russia has less ability to do so than even France or UK if they wanted. The EU doesn't spend much on defense right now. So Russia has more military capability today than individual European countries. But if the EU ever built their defenses up that changes completely.

 

[Monahorns]

That message is shown in the defense spending chart.

This shows that Russia has no chance against the West with the US standing behind Europe to help. Even though Russia spends a higher % of GDP on military than the US, we spend over 10xs more military than they do.
France/Germany/UK spends more overall on military than Russia. If Putin doesn't know this, then he is a really foolish and unintelligent man. I think he knows it. He has a little wiggle room to fight the Ukraine right now. But Russia's only credible threat to the West is by launching nukes. In that case he still doesn't win. He just wounds to the giant before he is completely destroyed.

 

[Monahorns]

Context is everything. In 2016, Russia had taken Crimea and was supporting rebels in Donetsk and Luhansk. Those fighters were actively fighting Russian mercenaries using Russian armaments on Ukraine soil. If Russia felt threatened then they were threatened that the US was helping push them out of Ukraine.
There isn't an iota of evidence of threat to Russian land in that video. And that's saying a lot coming from those two war hawks.

Looking into the video as much as I could. It was taken in Kiev. It wasn't next to Donbas so the threat is a little more broad, even though you are correct on the context. I don't think this was a call to attack Russia. It does show the US working right outside Russia's borders with a government that they hand picked to replace Yanukovych.
If you were in Russia, would you think there was no appetite to continue further? There would surely be nothing stopping them. And situations change all the time.

 

[Monahorns]

Sanctions don't harm Russian military capabilities? Not immediately but when they are forced to donate finite resources to supplying food and heat to it's citizens those are resources that can't go to the military, supporting the current war or future technology needs.

I don't think it limits them enough to change their approach with Ukraine.

 

[Monahorns]

An underreported story right now is not the refugees leaving Ukraine but rather people fleeing Russia. They are experiencing a brain drain like they've never seen before. Westernized middle class citizens, tech workers who have the $$ and ability to relocate.

Anyone who can leave that part of the world should for many reasons.

 

[Monahorns]

The Arab Spring, Orange Revolution and other countless large population protests have proven that change can occur even if the leaders try to quell it. Russia has been on the precipice of change with protests led by Navalny and others but quelled it.

Sanctions are needed for that. The more hungry a populace is the more they will focus on subsistence not overthrowing a government. I don't consider the Arab Spring a positive outcome.

 

[AC]

Ukraine First, Taiwan Second, Stage Is Set, Watch What Happens Next – Ep. 2717

 

[Seattle Husker]

Ukraine First, Taiwan Second, Stage Is Set, Watch What Happens Next – Ep. 2717

Ian Bremmer 3rd?

 

[AC]

This report is a good one. Expect China to invade Taiwan soon. Not much on here outside of my posts, agreeing these strikes regardless of where exactly they are (airports, neighborhoods), are against Ukraine bio weapon labs and money laundering operations.

 

[AC]

Putin had no reason to think US/NATO would ever attack Russia. Right?
The context of this video isn't clear, but it is US politicians promising to fight against Russia through Ukraine. Why would the Russian government ever feel threatened by that?

John McCain was a traitor, seems likely Lindsay Graham is too.

 

[Seattle Husker]

John McCain was a traitor, seems likely Lindsay Graham is too.

John McCain wasn't a traitor. He gave much more to this country than probably anyone on the West Mall. To call him a traitor shows just how far we've fallen from any traditional definition of Patriotism. Just because he had a different perspective, agenda, whatever didn't make him a traitor.