Russia attacking Ukraine 2/16?

[TaylorTRoom]

Taylor, this increase in production can't be done over night. First of all, it would take a long time - at least a few years - to get production back to that volume. Second, the administration in power is committed to green. Oil CEO's can't even talk to the administration. Right now, that's a pipe dream.

Years? How in the hell do you come up with that, other than that’s what you want to believe? Do you not live in Texas? Have you never paid attention? We were producing like that two years ago and we just have to ramp back up. Nothing needs to be discovered or built.
As for the Greens- Putin just convinced Germany’s Greens to go nuclear. I don’t see why you think our Greens have more power.

My point was that, contrary to your claim, economic pain can get much worse for Russia. You don’t have a good argument in refuting that.

 

[Horn6721]

Uh Mus
Who appointed McFaul?
It is because of the sanctions the elites would like to see Putin ousted. They want sanctions lifted.

You say the " common man is behind Putin? The hundreds of thousands protesting in the streets disagree with you. The Russian soldiers lied to about purpose of goung to Ukraine border disagree with you

 

[Seattle Husker]

Years? How in the hell do you come up with that, other than that’s what you want to believe? Do you not live in Texas? Have you never paid attention? We were producing like that two years ago and we just have to ramp back up. Nothing needs to be discovered or built.
As for the Greens- Putin just convinced Germany’s Greens to go nuclear. I don’t see why you think our Greens have more power.

My point was that, contrary to your claim, economic pain can get much worse for Russia. You don’t have a good argument in refuting that.

Per Reuters...

LONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped on Monday as Western allies imposed more sanctions on Russia and blocked some Russian banks from a global payments system, which could cause severe disruption to its oil exports.

Brent crude rose $2.32, or 2.4%, to $100.25 by 1436 GMT after touching a high of $105.07 a barrel in early trade.

The Brent contract for April delivery expires on Monday. The most active contract, for May delivery, was up $3.14 at $97.26.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up $3.09, or 3.4%, at $94.68 after hitting $99.10 in early trade.

"Growing concerns about disruptions to Russian energy supplies are pushing oil and gas prices up sharply," Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.
With the price of oil increase

With the sharp increase in oil prices incentive increases for US rigs to increase production, right? Is there some weather component at play? Regardless of what the Biden Administration decides, existing price sensitive oil fields can and should increase production.

 

[Seattle Husker]

The fog of war. Remember the 13 Ukraine border guards on Snake Island that were supposedly killed by a Russian Warship after telling the ship to "Go F yourself"? It was reported that they perished. As usual, the story is better than reality. They are Russia's POWs.

Ukrainian defenders who told Russian warship to 'Go f--- yourself' survived

 

[Musburger1]

Years? How in the hell do you come up with that, other than that’s what you want to believe? Do you not live in Texas? Have you never paid attention? We were producing like that two years ago and we just have to ramp back up. Nothing needs to be discovered or built.
As for the Greens- Putin just convinced Germany’s Greens to go nuclear. I don’t see why you think our Greens have more power.

My point was that, contrary to your claim, economic pain can get much worse for Russia. You don’t have a good argument in refuting that.

Taylor, increasing oil production quickly to the point it would make a difference is an uphill battle. As evidenced below.

This was from yesterday.
Psaki says calls to enhance US oil production are a 'misdiagnosis'

White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Sunday said calls for the U.S. to boost its own fossil fuel production in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has increased oil prices further, were a "misdiagnosis."​

And this is an excerpt from a Nov. 2021 article.
OPEC Says To Biden: If You Want More Oil, Pump It Yourself

The Biden administration’s refusal to increase oil and gas output also puts Europe in a particularly difficult situation, as the gas production in the UK, North Sea, and Holland is depleting, and there is no domestic gas supply besides Norway.​

 

[Musburger1]

The fog of war. Remember the 13 Ukraine border guards on Snake Island that were supposedly killed by a Russian Warship after telling the ship to "Go F yourself"? It was reported that they perished. As usual, the story is better than reality. They are Russia's POWs.

Ukrainian defenders who told Russian warship to 'Go f--- yourself' survived

Any information coming out before its been vetted must be viewed skeptcially. Propaganda is a major factor in any war. You have to have the people back whatever decision you make.

 

[mb227]

With the sharp increase in oil prices incentive increases for US rigs to increase production, right? Is there some weather component at play? Regardless of what the Biden Administration decides, existing price sensitive oil fields can and should increase production.

You mean in those lease fields where Biden banned continued activity and snatched/revoked leases? Those fields?

Further, there is more to production than just getting an increased amount out of the ground. This is where *checks notes* pipelines come into play, something else that your side doesn't like and had taken extensive steps to choke out of existence.

Oh, and there is ALSO a staffing issue given the layoffs that came in the wake of Slow Joe's stupid embrace of the Green New Deal.

We can only HOPE that Slow Joe has the temerity to piss off the squad during the SOTU and announce he is removing ALL restrictions that his regime has put into place in the past year and one month (plus a few weeks).

 

[mb227]

Taylor, increasing oil production quickly to the point it would make a difference is an uphill battle. As evidenced below.

This was from yesterday.
Psaki says calls to enhance US oil production are a 'misdiagnosis'

White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Sunday said calls for the U.S. to boost its own fossil fuel production in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has increased oil prices further, were a "misdiagnosis."​

Psaki is still toting water for the party line of oil being bad. She is afraid to say anything that offends AOC and the other idiots.

 

[OUBubba]

McFaul is one of the point men for the Neocons. He's experienced and knows Russia very well, but he's talking propaganda here. Hell, the elites are among those being sanctioned. And while they may not be aligned with Putin, Putin has the political power and support of the common man. The Russian elites do not.

He's the guy that made me think that the kompromat that they had on Trump was possibly real. He said as US diplomats living in Russia they were aware that EVERY action that they might take (bathroom, bedrooms, other people's bedroom's, hotel rooms, etc.) could be recorded and to act accordingly. He said Trump may not have been the most responsible OpSec guy when he was there for the Miss Universe pageant. I'm not saying that the pee tape is real, but there could be something untoward out there. And, there could be something sketchy that they walked Trump into that he wasn't even really a part of but he was not aware enough to NOT be walked into something and didn't have the secret service to keep him on point.

 

[Musburger1]

He's the guy that made me think that the kompromat that they had on Trump was possibly real. He said as US diplomats living in Russia they were aware that EVERY action that they might take (bathroom, bedrooms, other people's bedroom's, hotel rooms, etc.) could be recorded and to act accordingly. He said Trump may not have been the most responsible OpSec guy when he was there for the Miss Universe pageant. I'm not saying that the pee tape is real, but there could be something untoward out there. And, there could be something sketchy that they walked Trump into that he wasn't even really a part of but he was not aware enough to NOT be walked into something and didn't have the secret service to keep him on point.

I’m sure much of what he says is factual, some is false, and some is projection (that is, we are doing the same things). Take anything he says with a grain of salt.

 

[OUBubba]

Taylor, increasing oil production quickly to the point it would make a difference is an uphill battle. As evidenced below.

This was from yesterday.
Psaki says calls to enhance US oil production are a 'misdiagnosis'

White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Sunday said calls for the U.S. to boost its own fossil fuel production in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has increased oil prices further, were a "misdiagnosis."​

And this is an excerpt from a Nov. 2021 article.
OPEC Says To Biden: If You Want More Oil, Pump It Yourself

The Biden administration’s refusal to increase oil and gas output also puts Europe in a particularly difficult situation, as the gas production in the UK, North Sea, and Holland is depleting, and there is no domestic gas supply besides Norway.​

80% of pols are ready to "drill baby, drill". We haven't seen that kind of agreement since we learned how popular universal background checks were.

 

[OUBubba]

I’m sure much of what he says is factual, some is false, and some is projection (that is, we are doing the same things). Take anything he says with a grain of salt.

True. He was your neighbor so you probably know better than us.

 

[Musburger1]

True. He was your neighbor so you probably know better than us.

He told me in confidence that he and Barry Switzer are good buds.

 

[Seattle Husker]

Zelensky calls for Ukraine to be given immediate EU membership

Remember, it was an agreement with the EU (not full membership) that prompted the Ukrainian Parliament to essentially impeach the Russian stooge Victor Yanukoyvich in 2014.

 

[Horn6721]

How does any of that babbu about Trump negate that many including elites in Russia want to see Putin gone?
Watch the hundreds of thousands brave enough to protest.

 

[OUBubba]

He told me in confidence that he and Barry Switzer are good buds.

Switzer is a huge commie. Hell, he makes me look like one of those fine people that I unfollowed.

 

[Musburger1]

Zelensky calls for Ukraine to be given immediate EU membership

Remember, it was an agreement with the EU (not full membership) that prompted the Ukrainian Parliament to essentially impeach the Russian stooge Victor Yanukoyvich in 2014.

Suppose the EU rushes it through and then Putin changes the government. Does the EU then appoint a Juan Guaido as the real president, while based in Poland? How does that work?

 

[Mr. Deez]

After Putin takes Ukraine he'll be mired in a massive insurgency that won't be quelled even with brutal tactics, IMHO.

The financial sanctions the West is putting in place are nearly unparalleled. China will help buffer some of the sanctions but anti-war protests have now reached them. If China's support wanes at all it's really Putin against the world.

My understanding is that the energy sector is largely being spared. Obviously going that far will hurt the West the most, but it would turn Russia into a third world country very fast.

 

[Mr. Deez]

I'm worried that they're being outed as "not the world's best fighting force" and he may want to try to impact that perception over the next few weeks.

Hard to imagine that, but it's possible.

 

[Seattle Husker]

My understanding is that the energy sector is largely being spared. Obviously going that far will hurt the West the most, but it would turn Russia into a third world country very fast.

Yep. As I read it the SWIFT expulsion for Russia stopped at Energy companies that sell to EU, primarily Germany and Italy. That's a pretty big loophole.

 

[bystander]

You mean in those lease fields where Biden banned continued activity and snatched/revoked leases? Those fields?

Further, there is more to production than just getting an increased amount out of the ground. This is where *checks notes* pipelines come into play, something else that your side doesn't like and had taken extensive steps to choke out of existence.

Oh, and there is ALSO a staffing issue given the layoffs that came in the wake of Slow Joe's stupid embrace of the Green New Deal.

We can only HOPE that Slow Joe has the temerity to piss off the squad during the SOTU and announce he is removing ALL restrictions that his regime has put into place in the past year and one month (plus a few weeks).

Don't forget how the greens are trying to choke off financing by intimidating banks and large pension funds.

 

[Musburger1]

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sen-josh-hawley-proposes-congress-reopen-us-energy-production-full-thrott

Taylor, maybe you’re on to something. At least a political war among factions. We’ll see what happens.

 

[Seattle Husker]

Suppose the EU rushes it through and then Putin changes the government. Does the EU then appoint a Juan Guaido as the real president, while based in Poland? How does that work?

First, it can't happen quickly. Second, no way EU makes that move while Russia has troops in Ukraine threatening its sovereignty. This was a trigger to invading Crimea and Eastern Ukraine initially which is likely why Zelensky is calling for it now. It's an attempt to poke Putin in the eye.

 

[Monahorns]

Interesting theory by a former Ambassador to Russia who talks to people un Russia every day,
Mike McFaul says Putin no longer has the support of the "elites ".
He is suggesting a coup nsy take place ousting Putin and allowing Russia to withdraw.
Hope this happens and soon.

If you do that you could end up with someone worse than Putin in charge. If NATO puts in a puppet you will have the same kind of insurgency that people are talking about if Russia were to conquer Ukraine. Bad, bad idea.

Seek peace.

 

[Horn6721]

Mona
"Seek peace"
Great idea
And do you think Putin will agree and withdraw?

 

[Monahorns]

Has anyone read George Kennan's comments from 1998? He basically predicted the future and many comments on this board.

Blows Against the Empire: George Kennan in 1998 on NATO expansion and Russia


With some commentary.

What would George Kennan say about Ukraine?

 

[Monahorns]

Mona
"Seek peace"
Great idea
And do you think Putin will agree and withdraw?

Possibly. Over the weekend there were reports that Putin and Zelensky were going to meet. I think that is the only path forward.

 

[TaylorTRoom]

Sure, China could help Russia navigate the sanctions. But China has seen Russia’s actions unite the west like it hasn’t been in decades, and the slaughter in the cities hasn’t even begun yet. Maybe China wants to send a signal to Russia that as much as they want to weaken the US’ stature, this escapade needs to wrap up?

China so far not helping Russia evade Western sanctions-U.S. official

 

[Seattle Husker]

Possibly. Over the weekend there were reports that Putin and Zelensky were going to meet. I think that is the only path forward.

Putin has said that only after the Zelinsky administration is removed and the ambiguous "denazification" occurs will he consider peace.

Well...Zelinsky has quickly become the "hero" in the prevailing narrative and has made clear that he'll only be removed by force. The latter "denazification" is laughable considering the previous atrocities by Chechen brigade supporting Putin right now in Ukraine and "nazi's" like the Asimov Battalion also exist within the Eastern Ukraine separatists. Let's be clear, Putin was never really concerned about "nazis" but the Asimov Battalion is a useful rhetorical tool for his propaganda machine.

Essentially, Putin set the bar to the point that peace isn't possible. The addition of Belarus to the fight further pushes peace away. Then again, we all know that peace was never Putin's intention. It was never on the table but rather was held out as a headfake for the Putin apologists.

 

[Seattle Husker]

Sure, China could help Russia navigate the sanctions. But China has seen Russia’s actions unite the west like it hasn’t been in decades, and the slaughter in the cities hasn’t even begun yet. Maybe China wants to send a signal to Russia that as much as they want to weaken the US’ stature, this escapade needs to wrap up?

China so far not helping Russia evade Western sanctions-U.S. official

I'm fully expecting China to discreetly support Russia. They want to avoid their own sanctions but they'll do everything they can to aid their ally against Western interests.