Russia attacking Ukraine 2/16?

[Monahorns]

An American in Kiev with a new perspective

Mus, this is interesting. The strategy this person describes is the old way of doing war. It is medieval. It is the opposite of total war, which started in the US Civil War btw. It makes sense too. Russia is sees the world in the medieval, feudal way. It isn't the USSR or the Bolshevik way, which was based on Enlightenment philosophy and totalitarian, revolutionary. It is the warlord way of thinking with the goal of taking land in order to later take resources from it.

PS. This isn't me advocating the invasion. It is wrong and murderous still. But it is an interesting idea to think about.

I also disagree with the guy about handing out weapons. It is great that Ukraine is arming its citizenry. I hope this is something they advocate going forward.

 

[Horn2RunAgain]

An American in Kiev with a new perspective

This clip is very similar to most a&m best football seasons. Sounds ok until 2/3 of the way thru, then the bottom falls out.

at around the 12:30 mark his schpiel falls apart & then gets bizarre. I don't need to provide details, because if DC or Mexico rolls tanks thru Texas I'm taking up arms. And I haven't fired a weapon since I was in the USAF 45+ yrs ago

 

[Monahorns]

at around the 12:30 mark his schpiel falls apart & then gets bizarre. I don't need to provide details, because if DC or Mexico rolls tanks thru Texas I'm taking up arms. And I haven't fired a weapon since I was in the USAF 45+ yrs ago

He lost me there too.

 

[Horn6721]

Ukraine officials will meet with Russian officials in Belarus.
Belarus has said they will make sure all planes helos and missiles will remain grounded.
Not sure this is the smartest place to meet.

 

[iatrogenic]

This clip is very similar to most a&m best football seasons. Sounds ok until 2/3 of the way thru, then the bottom falls out.

at around the 12:30 mark his schpiel falls apart & then gets bizarre. I don't need to provide details, because if DC or Mexico rolls tanks thru Texas I'm taking up arms. And I haven't fired a weapon since I was in the USAF 45+ yrs ago

The coward says fighting for your freedom means possibly dying for nothing. That sums up his sermon.

 

[theiioftx]

Ok I have no idea if this is real or not, but if so, Putin had no idea what he was getting into invading these brave people.

‘Here we are now, entertain us!’ — Ukrainian soldiers troll Russia with Nirvana rendition

 

[Horn6721]

Putin made the mistake of thinking Ukranian Christians would run away like Afghan Muslims.
I just hope all the equipment and armament the world is sending gets there in time.

I think Putin ordering nuke on alert is a mistake.

 

[TaylorTRoom]

I shouldn’t have been so surprised by the Ukraine resistance. They remember the Holodomor. They have had 30 years without Russian supervision, 30 years with ups and downs, and they have decided they are done with Russians.

 

[Garmel]

I really wish someone in Russia would put a bullet in Putin and end this.

 

[OUBubba]

I really wish someone in Russia would put a bullet in Putin and end this.

We can sit around a fire and sing on that one.

 

[Seattle Husker]

Estimates are 435k Ukraine soldiers have been involved in the fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk the past 8 years. That's a lot of experience against Russian made hardware. You could make the case that Ukraine has been preparing for this day for 8yrs.

The resolve of the Ukrainians, men and women, has been impressive. Still, Russia is clearly holding back with only 50% of their total staged troop contingent in Ukraine. Additionally, by all reports Russian troops appear to be going to great lengths to avoid civilian casualties. I fear for the eventuality that Putin realizes they aren't being welcomed and decides the only way to win is to go savage on Ukraine. Then the insurgency will start and make Iraq seem like childs play.

 

[bystander]

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev threatens to cut diplomatic ties to Western countries in response to sanctions over Ukraine

 

[iatrogenic]

Putin made the mistake of thinking Ukranian Christians would run away like Afghan Muslims.
I just hope all the equipment and armament the world is sending gets there in time.

I think Putin ordering nuke on alert is a mistake.

So you don’t think the blankets Obama sent will be sufficient?

 

[Garmel]

Estimates are 435k Ukraine soldiers have been involved in the fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk the past 8 years. That's a lot of experience against Russian made hardware. You could make the case that Ukraine has been preparing for this day for 8yrs.

The resolve of the Ukrainians, men and women, has been impressive. Still, Russia is clearly holding back with only 50% of their total staged troop contingent in Ukraine. Additionally, by all reports Russian troops appear to be going to great lengths to avoid civilian casualties. I fear for the eventuality that Putin realizes they aren't being welcomed and decides the only way to win is to go savage on Ukraine. Then the insurgency will start and make Iraq seem like childs play.

Yep. Even if Putin wins Ukraine he won't be able to keep it. An insurgency using guerilla warfare backed by a constant influx of NATO weapons/supplies will make it impossible for him to keep it. I would be utterly shocked if Putin can pull it off.

 

[Seattle Husker]

 

[Seattle Husker]

Yep. Even if Putin wins Ukraine he won't be able to keep it. An insurgency using guerilla warfare backed by a constant influx of NATO weapons/supplies will make it impossible for him to keep it. I would be utterly shocked if Putin can pull it off.

This has Russian Afghanistan written all over it. Charlie Wilson's War take TWO. As long as NATO has the giant land borders of Poland, Romania and Moldova to arm the insurgents Putin has no hope of controlling Ukraine.

My worry is that Putin has no way out of this to save face. He's essentially ended Russia's perception of a strong military which was their last vestige of power. Putin is now a 69yr old autocrat with dreams of grandeur but just drove his country off a cliff. There is no "win" available for Putin. The moment he inevitably pulls out Ukraine will be ushered in to NATO. Heck, he just pushed Sweden and Finland to consider NATO. Putin just reinforced the value and bonds of NATO.

 

[bystander]

This has Russian Afghanistan written all over it. Charlie Wilson's War take TWO. As long as NATO has the giant land borders of Poland, Romania and Moldova to arm the insurgents Putin has no hope of controlling Ukraine.

My worry is that Putin has no way out of this to save face. He's essentially ended Russia's perception of a strong military which was their last vestige of power. Putin is now a 69yr old autocrat with dreams of grandeur but just drove his country off a cliff. There is no "win" available for Putin. The moment he inevitably pulls out Ukraine will be ushered in to NATO. Heck, he just pushed Sweden and Finland to consider NATO. Putin just reinforced the value and bonds of NATO.

Saving face is so important to egomaniacs.

That is why I'm a little anxious about his willingness to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine does not unconditionally surrender. He won't do what Krushchev did, allowing Kennedy to appear strong in ending the Cuban Missile crisis while we in turn secretly removed nuclear missiles from Turkey (kept classified for 25 years).

And how will we save face for a stand-down? Give Ukraine away furthering emboldening Putin? That is why this is so shocking to me. Putin has to know all these things yet has gone beyond brinksmanship.

 

[Musburger1]

The threat to use nuclear weapons isn’t against Ukraine. The threat is to use them against NATO if and when NATO interferes.

 

[Mr. Deez]

This has Russian Afghanistan written all over it. Charlie Wilson's War take TWO. As long as NATO has the giant land borders of Poland, Romania and Moldova to arm the insurgents Putin has no hope of controlling Ukraine.

My worry is that Putin has no way out of this to save face. He's essentially ended Russia's perception of a strong military which was their last vestige of power. Putin is now a 69yr old autocrat with dreams of grandeur but just drove his country off a cliff. There is no "win" available for Putin. The moment he inevitably pulls out Ukraine will be ushered in to NATO. Heck, he just pushed Sweden and Finland to consider NATO. Putin just reinforced the value and bonds of NATO.

I'm not quite ready to say he's in a "no win" situation. I think he still pretty much has free rein to do to Ukraine what he wishes. However, his ambition of walking right in with little or no resistance isn't happening. It's going to take a bigger force and more brutality. My understanding is that about 150,000 troops have gone into Ukraine. They can obviously send a lot more if they want, and if he keeps things limited to Ukraine, I think he'll basically be OK. However, even if they're not in NATO, I think NATO would defend Finland and Sweden if he acts against them.

One thing is for damn sure. There's going to be a major push for all of these non-aligned countries to join NATO. Russia's goodwill will never be trusted or taken seriously again.

 

[OUBubba]

I'm not quite ready to say he's in a "no win" situation. I think he still pretty much has free rein to do to Ukraine what he wishes. However, his ambition of walking right in with little or no resistance isn't happening. It's going to take a bigger force and more brutality. My understanding is that about 150,000 troops have gone into Ukraine. They can obviously send a lot more if they want, and if he keeps things limited to Ukraine, I think he'll basically be OK. However, even if they're not in NATO, I think NATO would defend Finland and Sweden if he acts against them.

One thing is for damn sure. There's going to be a major push for all of these non-aligned countries to join NATO. Russia's goodwill will never be trusted or taken seriously again.

I'm worried that they're being outed as "not the world's best fighting force" and he may want to try to impact that perception over the next few weeks.

 

[Seattle Husker]

I'm not quite ready to say he's in a "no win" situation. I think he still pretty much has free rein to do to Ukraine what he wishes. However, his ambition of walking right in with little or no resistance isn't happening. It's going to take a bigger force and more brutality. My understanding is that about 150,000 troops have gone into Ukraine. They can obviously send a lot more if they want, and if he keeps things limited to Ukraine, I think he'll basically be OK. However, even if they're not in NATO, I think NATO would defend Finland and Sweden if he acts against them.

One thing is for damn sure. There's going to be a major push for all of these non-aligned countries to join NATO. Russia's goodwill will never be trusted or taken seriously again.

After Putin takes Ukraine he'll be mired in a massive insurgency that won't be quelled even with brutal tactics, IMHO.

The financial sanctions the West is putting in place are nearly unparalleled. China will help buffer some of the sanctions but anti-war protests have now reached them. If China's support wanes at all it's really Putin against the world.

 

[OUBubba]

After Putin takes Ukraine he'll be mired in a massive insurgency that won't be quelled even with brutal tactics, IMHO.

The financial sanctions the West is putting in place are nearly unparalleled. China will help buffer some of the sanctions but anti-war protests have now reached them. If China's support wanes at all it's really Putin against the world.

I think China will flip. They'll run a flag up the pole and look at the wind.

 

[Seattle Husker]

I think China will flip. They'll run a flag up the pole and look at the wind.

It will take A LOT for China to flip. They have to be hoping for similar support from Russia over Taiwan.

 

[Musburger1]

It will take A LOT for China to flip. They have to be hoping for similar support from Russia over Taiwan.

The West has gone all in with sanction. There’s no more room to escalate financially, so yes, China is key. If the Ruble crashes, China can easily by Rubles and rescue it. India is important too. They desperately need Russia agriculture exports including fertilizer. The US can nudge them, but if they need to feed a billion people you must consider that. Sanctions likely won’t achieve objectives if China and India don’t play ball.

 

[TaylorTRoom]

The threat to use nuclear weapons isn’t against Ukraine. The threat is to use them against NATO if and when NATO interferes.

Historical note- For decades, the US policy was to not match the USSR’s pledge to not launch a first strike. Number 1, we didn’t believe them. Number 2, if the Russki tanks came through the Fulda Gap, we sure as hell would be ready to nuke them.

 

[TaylorTRoom]

The West has gone all in with sanction. There’s no more room to escalate financially, so yes, China is key. If the Ruble crashes, China can easily by Rubles and rescue it. India is important too. They desperately need Russia agriculture exports including fertilizer. The US can nudge them, but if they need to feed a billion people you must consider that. Sanctions likely won’t achieve objectives if China and India don’t play ball.

I’m sorry, Musburger, but I don’t see why you think the west is currently “all in” on sanctions on your beloved Russia. There are a lot more to go, if need be. For example- with limits on access to foreign markets, what would Putin do if the US opened up oil production and drove the price to $60/barrel? They’d be selling Russian babies to childless western couples again.

 

[Musburger1]

I’m sorry, Musburger, but I don’t see why you think the west is currently “all in” on sanctions on your beloved Russia. There are a lot more to go, if need be. For example- with limits on access to foreign markets, what would Putin do if the US opened up oil production and drove the price to $60/barrel? They’d be selling Russian babies to childless western couples again.

Taylor, this increase in production can't be done over night. First of all, it would take a long time - at least a few years - to get production back to that volume. Second, the administration in power is committed to green. Oil CEO's can't even talk to the administration. Right now, that's a pipe dream.

 

[Musburger1]

Historical note- For decades, the US policy was to not match the USSR’s pledge to not launch a first strike. Number 1, we didn’t believe them. Number 2, if the Russki tanks came through the Fulda Gap, we sure as hell would be ready to nuke them.

You should read Daniel Ellsbreg's book "The Doomsday Machine." I think you would be surprised by some of the revelations. I was.

 

[Horn6721]

Interesting theory by a former Ambassador to Russia who talks to people un Russia every day,
Mike McFaul says Putin no longer has the support of the "elites ".
He is suggesting a coup nsy take place ousting Putin and allowing Russia to withdraw.
Hope this happens and soon.

 

[Musburger1]

Interesting theory by a former Ambassador to Russia who talks to people un Russia every day,
Mike McFaul says Putin no longer has the support of the "elites ".
He is suggesting a coup nsy take place ousting Putin and allowing Russia to withdraw.
Hope this happens and soon.

McFaul is one of the point men for the Neocons. He's experienced and knows Russia very well, but he's talking propaganda here. Hell, the elites are among those being sanctioned. And while they may not be aligned with Putin, Putin has the political power and support of the common man. The Russian elites do not.