North pole to melt this year?

oh...and for the record, we are having a record breaking summer in the Arctic in terms of low temperatures. in fact, you can go back all the way to the late 50's in a vain attempt to find a colder summer. the temperatures have already dropped below freezing about a month earlier than average.....obviously that could change but it is interesting to say the least. this la nina may be setting up to be a fierce one....if so, we could see some serious ice build up in the arctic.

arctic temperatures
 
yes...that is strange ray....isn't it. if the temperature is the cause then what's going on? of course, i suspect it is also attributable to the sea temps.
 
Is the temperature of the ocean rising or lowering?

Hint: I know the answer to this question and ENSO is a regional not global occurrence.

Also, can you post a link to my statement? I am pretty sure it was hyperbole in context.
 
What about this planet's history makes us believe that a warming trend in the Earth's climate cannot occur naturally?
 
Are the current levels of atmospheric CO2, N2O, and CH4 natural?

And my statement concerning the sea ice was obviously hyperbole in context. The trend is what is important.
 
paso....most of the current levels of atmospheric CO2 is certainly natural......man has added a small amount. i honestly don't know about Methane or Sulfur Dioxide....but my guess is that the answer is the same.
 
The highest natural CO2 levels have been in the last 400,000 years is about 300 ppm and it was 290 ppm in 1900. We are at around 388 ppm adding about 2 ppm per year.

The highest natural CH4 levels have been in the last 400,000 years is 773 ppb. It is at around 1700 ppb now although the growth appears to have leveled off at least for the time being.

The highest natural N2O levels have been in the last 650,000 years was 278 ppb. N2O is currently at 319 ppb and growing. I found the historic level of N2O at the following link:

The Link

You should also add halocarbons (like CFCs) pretty much all of which are not natural since we make them for refrigerants.

None of this is natural.
 
Science is pretty cool, huh?

chart_paleo_climate_1.gif
 
In pasotex's graph, it's interesting that the CO2 and CH4 levels do not seem to run out ahead of the temperature fluctuations. In fact, in a couple of instances it appears that there is a slight lag on the part of the gases, where the temperature increases or decreases first, and then the gas levels change slightly later.

So how is it that we determine causation?--Whether it's a change in the gas levels that force temperature changes or whether it's temperature changes that force a change in the gas levels?

If anything, that graph seems to indicate that temperatures, not gases, are in the lead.
 
There is an approximate 600 year lag between the initial rise in temperature and CO2 levels in the glacial-interglacial periods reflected in my chart. While CO2 is not the initial trigger or driver (it is almost certainly solar cycle related), CO2 then drives or compliments the continued rise for thousands of years. This has been addressed and investigated in great detail by climatologists.

Here is a good article on the lag:

The Link

It is also counterintuitive to claim that CO2 is not a driver since CO2 (like CH4, N2O, and CFCs) has known physical characteristics of heat retention so the only scientific question should be how much warming will occur as a result of rising gas levels.
 
by the way....the air temperatures in the arctic continue to be the coldest on record going back to the 1950s....which is quite interesting. my guess is that this suggests a very cold winter is coming.....at least globally...as i am sure there will be anomalously warm portions of the northern hemisphere.

meanT_2010.png
arctic temperature graph
 
The Earth has been warming and the Arctic ice sheets have been melting since the last ice age. Here is a depiction of what the Earth may have looked like around 12,000 years ago:

earthice.jpg


Clearly, the Earth was colder then, and it is warmer now. The observation that the Arctic ice cap is melting is an observation that goes back around 12,000 years. Nearly all of the melting that has occurred, occurred prior to the industrial age (which goes back less than 200 years). All of the melting that occurred prior to the beginning of the industrial age is obviously NOT a result of "anthropogenic global warming".

And now, over the last 10+ years, the Earth has actually cooled a bit. We are not at all time highs even within our lifetimes. Here is an article from the BBC on the topic:

What happened to global warming?

If the effect of CO2 that has been and is being pumped into the atmosphere is as compelling and dangerous as the AGW alarmists suggest, then how is it possible that the Earth has actually cooled over the last decade? If you take the predictive climate models used by Al Gore and his associates at the United Nations seriously, then we are in a state of crisis, the situation is dire, the need for corrective action is urgent and their is no time for delay.

But truth be told, none of these predictive climate models used by Al Gore and the UN predicted the cooling period that we are now entering. But here it is anyway. What are we to make of that?

What these people have been preaching to us is not reliable science. It is agenda-driven propaganda. Once again, the Earth has certainly warmed. But the so-called science surrounding the claims of the AGW alarmists is weak and not sufficiently substantiated to warrant betting our economic futures on. There needs to be a lot more work done on this.
 
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