North pole to melt this year?

well hornpharmd...joking aside, after over 2 years of this thread, do you think that the original claim of the article seems to be overstated?

by the way, i am sure you will be very encouraged that we are just above average for sea ice extent in the world:

global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
 
to get back to the regular topic (i don't expect hornpharmd to answer my last question)....the ice graph is now charting nicely with 2006, which currently puts it above 2007 but still a good ways behind 2009 and 2008. with the way that 2008 and 2009 are dropping (in relation to 2006 and 2010) we could see an intersection in the next 2 weeks. but that's pure speculation because 2010 could start freefalling again as well.

AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
 
Texoz....we have talked about this many times. you are not so subtly referring to the albedo effect....but you overstated it anyways because the ice gain in the antarctic has MORE than accounted for the ice gained in the arctic in terms of volume. now...we still need both to reflect enough sunlight back into space...but at this point it looks like the arctic went through 30 years of downtrend and will now head back up while the antarctic heads down for a time.
 
another ice update....2010 is tracking 2006 almost perfectly and is quickly closing the gap on 2008 and 2009. as an example....2010 and 2006 both lost around 35,000 on this day in their respective years, while 2008 and 2009 lost closer to 80,000 and 90,000. at this pace, the years will converge in another week or so.
 
so currently we are perfectly tracking with 2006, which as you will remember was well above years 2007, 2008 and 2009. however, it is reasonable to believe this tracking will end soon because no doubt the ice is not as thick as it was in 2006, although it seems to be thicker than in the years of 2007 through 2009......i am guessing we come in somewhere around 2009's total but perhaps below it by about 300,000....therefore splitting the difference with 2008.
 
ice melt off has been considerable in the past 4 or 5 days....but seems to have slowed again yesterday and today. still running above 2007 and close to 2006 and approaching 2009.
 
looks like we are headed for an intersection with 2009 ice in the next 2 days....which is interesting because 2009 was the highest of the past 3 years. but with arctic ice, you can never be certain...it seems to change weekly in terms of trajectory.
 
so i predicted yesterday that 2010 would converge with 2009 by today or tomorrow......we shall see at 10:00 PM...
 
good thing i gave myself 2 days! so last night the ice gain on 2009 by 2010 was like 60,000 square kilometers but that leaves a gap of 50,000 square kilometers. based upon how much 2009 dropped on july 25th we still have an excellent chance for 2010 to catch 2009 today. it is almost certain that after tonight's update the two will be within 20,000 square kilometers of each other (a virtual deadheat)......but i will keep you posted, even if i am wrong!
 
the new numbers are in and 2009 just surpassed 2010 in terms of melt....but only by 5,000 square kilometers. of course, there is usually a morning adjustment so that will probably grow come tomorrow morning when they do the daily adjustment.
 
But seriously, is the North Pole qualified to contradict the wisdom of literally hundreds, if not thousands, of climatologists? Is the North Pole even trained in a relevant field of study?
 
great question Coel....honestly, my guess is that we have a bit less ice than 2009 but a bit more than 2008. i think next year we continue the short (but substantial) upward trend and surpass 2009's low. but i think we will see foreshadowing of this by January.
 
oops....in a strange turn of events the correction this morning actually showed MORE melt rather than less, so 2010 is still about 8,000 square kilometers behind 2009. of course that means that in the past few weeks it has gained over 200,000 square kilometers on 2009, so no doubt tonight it will pass it for at least a few days or weeks.
 
it is actually amazing how closely 2010 is now tracking 2009....at this point it is like 3,000 square kilometers above 2009.....but that's not much. it will be interesting to see if it soon passes 2008 like 2009 did in another week or so.
 
today was interesting....last year's July 28th lost about 63,000 square kilometers while 2010 only lost 47,000.....so for the first time 2010 has a little bit more of a "substantial" lead on 2009. of course, there is TONS more melt to come and i suspect this lead may change a few more times. all said, this is fairly meaningless at this point, but it continues to be interesting (and a tad bit surprising) to see that 2010 is tracking 2009 so closely. at this rate, we are only a few more days from 2010 catching 2008 (which fell further than 2009 but that fall came later in the melt season).
 
GT....try to hang in there, i know this entire thread must absolutely gall you. but hey....if nothing else i am persistent and i do post updates even when things are going "against" my general thoughts. currently....they seem to be trending in the way i expected but i realize that could change. we have about 6 weeks to go (although 4 weeks will tell us most of the story because not much melts the last 2 weeks)....
 
for the 2nd day in a row 2010 added distance between itself and 2009......2008 isn't far away and the two are heading towards each other.....but these things can change quickly.
 
well based upon the last few days of melt (rather small) and the way this year has been improving on 2009, i am predicting that within the next 4 days we eclipse (if only briefly) 2005. to keep it in perspective, 2005 was the lowest meltoff on record until 2007-2009 eclipsed it. however, 2008 and then 2009 both greatly improved upon 2007's low meltoff. if this year surpasses 2005 (at the end, not in the next 4 days) it would be a continued short term up trend. but as i said a few days ago, we have a lot of melt off in front of us so this is just premature speculation in all likelihood. having said that, it has been a cold summer in the Arctic and we are continuing to track below average temperatures up there.

arctic temperature graph
 
so 2010 has slipped beneath 2009...but the two are still in a statistical deadheat. in fact, the years 2008, 2006 and 2005 are all right there too. arctic temperatures are among the lowest for this time of year on record (but that says nothing of the water temps so who knows what will happen.)
 
This thread is almost half-way caught up to Mira Sorvino. I will post there, too, so as not to cause a narrowing of the gap with my observation.
 
2010 has melted fairly significantly in the past 3 or 4 days....it is now behind 2009 so we will have to see what happens over the next week or so.
 
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