North pole to melt this year?

[HousHorn09]

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[hornpharmd]

Yeh I wouldn't focus on that part too much as it seemed to be added in with editorial license. I mean the article itself doesn't link to anything and that quote is from "environmentalists" so not a real quote.

I would just say focus on the main point which is a giant ice shelf has separated itself from Greenland...and it is the biggest piece to breakaway from the arctic region since 1962 apparently.

 

[pasotex]

Why don't you look into the temperature reconstructions and tell us who is full of **** and why they are are full of ****?

 

[mop]

hornpharmd....why can't that be good? or more precisely....why does it matter? the last time this happened was in 1962....at time at which global temperatures had been dropping for about 20 years and no one was concerned about global warming.

 

[mop]

there are lots of reasons to doubt the hockey stick and the general implications of past temperature reconstructions (particularly those based upon a handful of cherry-picked Yamal trees as proxies).....but here is yet another one:

russian study shows a much slower rise in temperatures than that implied by the Mann reconstruction (i.e. hockey stick graph)

 

[mop]

by the way....i am wondering what you alarmists think of this graph:

notice how the global sea surface temperatures generally track the Nino 3.4? see how the Nino 3.4 is dropping steadily since January? The Global Sea Surface temperature is a very good predictor for the Global surface temperatures. what does all of this mean? It means a cold winter like we haven't possibly seen since the 90's (depending on whether or not the Nino 3.4 drops lower than the late 2007/early 2008 dip we saw 3 years ago!).

thoughts?

finally, how do you feel about another year going by that in all likelihood will not surpass the hottest year on record 1998?

 

[mop]

oh....and for the more open-minded among you (this probably doesn't apply to you if you are convinced that natural mechanisms are weaker than man produced CO2).....

this guy is no nonsense and puts his predictions out there VERY specifically and reviews them regularly:

Joe Bastardi

que GT and ad hominem attacks....but notice that this guy has been predicting the La Nina that is hitting hard for about 6 months.

 

[GT WT]

He's a weatherman, MOP. He's supposed to be able to predict weather. He's not a climatologist.

If reportinging accurately a person's area of expertise is an ad hominem attack, I'm guilty. I really don't care what TV weathermen, mining engineers, or youth ministers think about climate science. Their opinions on climate change are as well informed as my opinion on theodicy.

 

[mop]

yep GT...and he is doing a far better job of predicting Arctic Ice and general climate trends than the experts you put such stock in.

 

[mop]

for the record...i agree that the trend for the past 30 years has been down....but then that's not surprising or particularly poignant.....we could back out to longer and longer time spans and continue to make opposite claims. you guys act as if the ice should recover completely in one year.....that's not possible and if it did, we should all be very concerned about global cooling! on the other hand....it is now 700,000 square kilometers above where it was just 3 years ago and will end up closer to 1,000,000 square kilometers above the 2007 low....so the 3 year trend is certainly upwards.

 

[GT WT]

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[mop]

already did...just go backwards as far as you want and watch his predictions. he is very explicit and doesn't make excuses when he is mistaken...it is refreshingly scientific actually.

 

[GT WT]

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[mop]

same place GT....he predicts what is going to happen with the Arctic years in advance and has been doing so for a while.....

but rather than go digging through a bunch of his old videos only to have you come up with some excuse for why it doesn't count....

let's see how he does this year (he actually predicts for the ice to come in slightly lower than last year but then rebound to amounts we haven't seen in years (i.e. not weather, but actual climate) and continue that trend for the next 30 years. now...i don't want us to have to wait for 30 years, but why don't we give it 6 months for starters and see if the La Nina he is predicting is really as severe as he thinks and if the winter weather really drops to temperatures we haven't seen globally since the 90's and then drops even further in the coming years to temps we haven't seen since the 70's.

he is also predicting that the AMO will shift around 2015 leading to further cooling and leading to more rapid Arctic Ice growth while the Antarctic begins to come down off it's 30 year high (yes....it is at a 30 year high, but you alarmists don't really like to talk about that do you?) to more pedestrian levels. the climate is shifting back to a cooler North Pole and a warmer South Pole....i would say those are climate predictions not weather predictions wouldn't you?

 

[mop]

by the way....this entire thread is more 2 years past when the scientist quoted claimed that we had a 50/50 chance of the North Pole "completely melting out" (whatever that meant is still up for interpretation as it is an infinitesimally small point) and we now are 700,000 square kilometers ahead of where we were 3 years ago (the summer BEFORE the scientist made that claim). so i would say the short term trends (call them weather or climate) are not going the way that was the very reason for this entire thread. i have been faithful to keep this thread going and i will continue to be so for the foreseeable future....even if the trends go against me....

 

[pasotex]

the "trend" is going against you

sometimes a little knowledge of math and statistics go a long way

There is a fairly obvious statistical trend. Is anything in the last year or two altering this?

 

[GT WT]

La Nina is a weather event, MOP, not an indicator of climate. Everyone agrees that short-term (i.e., the next few years) the la nina pattern will result in colder winters and increased Arctic ice. That has nothing to do with climate. The long-term trend is still towards warmer winters in the Arctic, earlier thawing, and later freezes.

There will always be short term variation in weather patterns. That doesn't change the predictions for long-term climate change. Nor does it change the observation that human release of fossil CO2 contributes to that change.

 

[GT WT]

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[mop]

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[mop]

remember after 2005 when we were told by all the "experts" that the global cyclone energy was going up and up because of global warming? strange that we are at a 30 year low:

cyclone activity low...

 

[hornpharmd]

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[GT WT]

MOP, you continue to confuse weather, as determined, for example by the el nino/la nina cycle, with climate. There will always be short-term cyclical changes in weather patterns.
Climate, however, is determind by long-term directional changes in the earth's environment - such as accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere.

 

[mop]

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[mop]

no GT...i don't confuse the two....it just makes for a nice sounding "rebuttal" on your part that doesn't address the point of my posts.....but carry on....at least you admit that the Arctic is refreezing and will be for some time. hey, when are you going to tell us how many years we can expect recovery in the Arctic as part of the larger AGW narrative? i mean, if we are going to understand your position, we need to be able to understand these new developments.

 

[pasotex]

There is and has been no recovery in the trend in the arctic. There is a statistically significant decline trend and what you term "recovery" is well within the trend.

 

[mop]

paso, contrary to your thoughts, i am no idiot and i understand the trend just fine. but the point is that even when something is recovering from a trend it will be within the trendlines until it breaks out. it would not be worth mentioning it if there weren't great reasons to believe the trend was related to the MDOs....since the 3 year trend (still within the 30 year downturn i know) has been up since the PDO shifted....there is good reason to believe that the trend may be about to break out. furthermore, even GT admitted that "everyone agrees" that the ice will build up over the coming years....so even in your graph, if GT is right, we will see it break out of that longer downturn.

 

[pasotex]

So you think ENSO cycles are responsible for this trend and will somehow create a recovery from it? How is this going to work exactly and what are the ENSO cycles anyway?

 

[GT WT]

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[mop]

no Paso...not the ENSO by itself, although i think it is certainly key. i believe the MDOs generally are responsible with the ENSO only representing one of those. there is also the AMO, AO, NAO etc. at this point, the temperatures are doing a far better job of responding to the MDOs than to CO2....considering we have cranked a bunch of CO2 into the atmosphere in the past 12 years since our 1998 high temperature year (according to all 4 major temperature indices although Hansen over at Nasa is working very hard to try and make 2005 look hotter than 1998, the other 3 don't seem to look that way....similar to this year when only the GISS is suggesting this is the hottest year on record thus far....of course it is a moot point because no one really believes it will be so at the year's end, that was just good publicity for a all to predictable cycle of AGW alarmist news). i mean of CO2 is such a key driver in the temperature you would think that adding roughly 7% of all the CO2 man has added in the past 150 years to the atmosphere in just 12 years' time would have cranked those temperatures up to new highs...instead they have more or less plateaued and now there is good reason to think they will fall over the next several years. why is that?

and don't give me any business about how this is the hottest decade on record etc etc.....the simple fact is that it has stopped getting warmer in the past 10 years and with what the oceans are currently doing right now, there is good reason to expect some serious cooling in the next couple of years.

 

[mop]

GT...i agree it's not that hard, but for some reason you are stuck on pretending it is hard. like i said...we will see the Arctic recover nicely over the next several years...i wonder what the excuse will be in the next 2 years or so when it DOES break out of the 30 year downtrend? will you blame the weather and say that it is merely weather? how can weather be so powerful to suppress the almighty force that is CO2? man....CO2 is looking more an more impotent as we go here. i thought it was the primary driver of temperatures...what's going on? has it been dethroned by the MDOs?