Coronavirus

[PecosBill]

Half of the covid deaths would be dead of something else within 6 months if they never had covid in the first place.

By your thinking 50% of the 300K+ CV19 deaths in the last 6 months would have died anyway. Does the same apply to the next 6 months of CV19?

 

[PecosBill]

In reading the predictions over the last 6 months since June, I didn't find any Posters saying that December would be the peak for CV19 in positive test, deaths or hospitalizations that we are currently experiencing. Maybe I missed those posts in the reading. Several models predicted increases.

 

[mchammer]

MC what chart would you use if you were looking at the country as a whole?

Not useful. Sort of like looking at a global chart. Not sure if it tells you much. Look at the map of cases for WV. Completely different from other states.

 

[mchammer]

By your thinking 50% of the 300K+ CV19 deaths in the last 6 months would have died anyway. Does the same apply to the next 6 months of CV19?

Since people are enrolled in nursing homes everyday, then yes. By the way, it is not my thinking but an epidemiologist in Italy at the height of their surge.

 

[mchammer]

In reading the predictions over the last 6 months since June, I didn't find any Posters saying that December would be the peak for CV19 in positive test, deaths or hospitalizations that we are currently experiencing. Maybe I missed those posts in the reading. Several models predicted increases.

Good point but most of us live in Texas and as discussed above it is hard to know what is going on in other states based on the data. If you look at the Houston area data here, TMC Daily New Covid-19 Hospitalizations - Texas Medical Center
you will see that the peak was last summer. The same is true for other sunbelt states. The recent surge in Texas was due to previous areas not hit like the panhandle. I think the best graph that shows what is going on if you were able to remove the regionalization is Louisiana. Basically wave after wave but getting smaller each time.

 

[mchammer]

As far as I can tell, there is x % of the population either due to pre-conditions or genetics that causes death by covid. The same thing occurs with the flu but 3-4x less each year (due to vaccine availability and prior exposure). It’s amazing we are almost out of this mess. The vaccine saves us a year, basically (say April 2021-April 2022). By Spring 2022, >70% probably exposed by then if no vaccine.

 

[Joe Fan]

I am so old I can remember the Govt bailing out banks on the grounds they were “too big to fail."

Now the Govt is forcing small businesses to close, some of them dating all the way to the 19th century, because they are "too small to matter."

 

[Seattle Husker]

Don't know what that is, and don't care Scissors Boy. You were too much of a coward to post here in October, like a little girl hiding her eyes at the scary part of a movie, now you post as many times in an hour as Nebraska loses football games. Sad.

You might want to slow your roll young buck.

 

[OUBubba]

I infer you read HuffPost and watch CNN. You lap up propaganda like no other. Get out of the trailer and experience reality.

Statistics like this are propaganda? I infer that one group, and those with whom they associate, are more serious about masking, social distancing, etc. I mean, I have a few degrees and 25+ years in the workforce that provides me the education and experience to jump to such wild conclusions based upon a curious set of facts like this. :|

 

[PecosBill]

Not useful. Sort of like looking at a global chart. Not sure if it tells you much. Look at the map of cases for WV. Completely different from other states.

I understand the idea of looking just at the home state but as an American I'm just as concerned about the whole impact on the entire country bc it impacts the entire country.

I have Family and Friends in 30 states and even though most were born in Texas they are now facing the peak of CV19 2020 not past history.

Some say CV19 went from high density population to low density population over the progression. Perhaps the same is true for Texas as the subject.

 

[PecosBill]

Since people are enrolled in nursing homes everyday, then yes. By the way, it is not my thinking but an epidemiologist in Italy at the height of their surge.

MC do you have a link for the Italian epidemiologist that I can look at.

The early CV19 activity peak in Northeast+ (NY/NJ/LA/MI) seemed to have a higher rate of death among the over 70 crowd than the same age groups as CV19 hit Texas and the Southern states. Would be curious to read his work.

The CV19 peak today may indeed be the same or not.

The number impacted is higher.

 

[PecosBill]

Good point but most of us live in Texas and as discussed above it is hard to know what is going on in other states based on the data. If you look at the Houston area data here, TMC Daily New Covid-19 Hospitalizations - Texas Medical Center
you will see that the peak was last summer. The same is true for other sunbelt states. The recent surge in Texas was due to previous areas not hit like the panhandle. I think the best graph that shows what is going on if you were able to remove the regionalization is Louisiana. Basically wave after wave but getting smaller each time.

I remember that Texas cancelled SXSW and Houston Livestock show early on while Nola chose to have Mardi Gras. The rest of La followed.

 

[PecosBill]

It’s amazing we are almost out of this mess.

That is the data point that I dont understand.

Is Texas almost out of this mess with advent of vaccines or are you saying the US is almost out of this mess? Dec 2020.

 

[mchammer]

I understand the idea of looking just at the home state but as an American I'm just as concerned about the whole impact on the entire country bc it impacts the entire country.

I have Family and Friends in 30 states and even though most were born in Texas they are now facing the peak of CV19 2020 not past history.

Some say CV19 went from high density population to low density population over the progression. Perhaps the same is true for Texas as the subject.

Due to “heterogeneous” mixing, what you are asking is not possible.

 

[mchammer]

That is the data point that I dont understand.

Is Texas almost out of this mess with advent of vaccines or are you saying the US is almost out of this mess? Dec 2020.

Mess is over on April 1 according to the modelers. The vaccine only insures there is not another wave beyond April 1.

 

[mchammer]

MC do you have a link for the Italian epidemiologist that I can look at.

The early CV19 activity peak in Northeast+ (NY/NJ/LA/MI) seemed to have a higher rate of death among the over 70 crowd than the same age groups as CV19 hit Texas and the Southern states. Would be curious to read his work.

The CV19 peak today may indeed be the same or not.

The number impacted is higher.

Not sure if I can find it since it was one line in an article from last March. Here is a link about nursing care.

Half of coronavirus deaths happen in care homes, data from EU suggests

You may not be aware that average lifespan for patients in a nursing home is 6 months. So if half the deaths are nursing home patients, ergo they would be dead in 6 months anyway on average if no covid.

 

[mchammer]

This is for Texas. Over by spring break.

 

[horninchicago]

You might want to slow your roll young buck.

Interesting. So, time as a member means more than post to like ratio?



Edit: Added Sombrero Boy to denote sarcasm.

 

[Horn6721]

mc
Thank goodness the link you posted is from the UK
i hope we are better than that with elderly covid patients is assisted etc living

well except fot Cuomo

 

[mchammer]

Check out Germany. Worse than US per capita

Germany Coronavirus: 1,469,991 Cases and 26,003 Deaths - Worldometer

 

[theiioftx]

Statistics like this are propaganda? I infer that one group, and those with whom they associate, are more serious about masking, social distancing, etc. I mean, I have a few degrees and 25+ years in the workforce that provides me the education and experience to jump to such wild conclusions based upon a curious set of facts like this. :|

You asked what we could infer from your post from the two most liberally biased organizations on the planet. Just every once and a while, look for other sources of information.

 

[Joe Fan]

"Level the playing field" by intentionally letting white folks die, by a supposed "expert in ethics and health policy"

If you have wondered what exactly "social justice" means, this is a good example

The Elderly vs. Essential Workers: Who Should Get the Coronavirus Vaccine First?

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

"Level the playing field" by intentional letting white folks die, by a supposed "expert in ethics and health policy"

If you have wondered what exactly "social justice" means, this is a good example

The Elderly vs. Essential Workers: Who Should Get the Coronavirus Vaccine First?

Many didn't understand my comment about hating social Healthcare because some are more important than others. This is what I meant. Who gets medical care and who doesn't is decided by the government and elitists. I hate this!!

 

[theiioftx]

It’s only going to get worse except for those who can access concierge medicine.

 

[Clean]

You may not be aware that average lifespan for patients in a nursing home is 6 months. So if half the deaths are nursing home patients, ergo they would be dead in 6 months anyway on average if no covid.

It may be true, but man, that is stone cold.

 

[OUBubba]

You asked what we could infer from your post from the two most liberally biased organizations on the planet. Just every once and a while, look for other sources of information.

It is facts. I agree huffpost is a liberal rag. Doesn't mean the numbers are wrong. This better? Republicans Make Up 70% Of The Members Of Congress Who Have Tested Positive For Covid-19

 

[Garmel]

It is facts. I agree huffpost is a liberal rag. Doesn't mean the numbers are wrong. This better? Republicans Make Up 70% Of The Members Of Congress Who Have Tested Positive For Covid-19

Small sample size. The 3 worst states for Covid death are blue states. What's your point?

 

[Monahorns]

"Level the playing field" by intentionally letting white folks die, by a supposed "expert in ethics and health policy"
If you have wondered what exactly "social justice" means, this is a good example

Joe, this is why government shouldn't be making medical decisions. It leads to injustice. Let people decide for themselves. Just get the vaccine out there and let people who want it pay to get it. The people with more incentive to get it, like old people, will naturally go get them. I guarantee you young, healthy people aren't beating down doors to get vaccinated.

 

[mchammer]

It may be true, but man, that is stone cold.

I hope by end of January every senior in a nursing home or at home with a pre-condition has been vaccinated. My old boss who is 68 with high blood pressure is scheduled for a shot in 2 weeks. You will see death cut in half at least.

 

[mchammer]

I read that the antibody therapies by Regeneron and Lilly will be supplied up to 20,000 doses per day once they are ramped up. If mainly reserved for folks above 65 (which is the plan), it can make a significant dent in deaths. However I don’t think they reach full production until second half or end of 2021. So, this is going to be hitting in 1Q, 2021 at a growing level along with the vaccines.