AP Poll

many on here are like the worrisome mother that puts on 5 layers of clothing including a thick coat on their kid just because it's a little cold outside.
I know all of us want texas to go to the CFP. We are so freaking close. We are capable of beating any of the top teams.
But we got to remember going from 8-5 to 12-1(assuming we win ccg and are passed over for CFP) is a huge success. This is so good for recruiting enabling us to be a huge factor in future CFP.
I do rely on the idea of being a conference champ and SOS including a decisive win over bama at their place to advance us to the CFP.
 
Gylcomer said:
The chance of all four favorable events happening is statistically low
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Well, virtually any permutation when looking at 5 games is going to be statistically low.

Going by the point spreads, the most likely winners (in order) are:

- Michigan (favored by 23 over Iowa)
- Texas (-14.5 over OSU)
- Oregon (-9.5 over UW, which I don't understand)
- Georgia (-4.5 over Alabama)
- Florida St (-2.5 over Louisville)

If those hold to true to form, we're out - Oregon would likely be ahead of us. If Oregon wins and Florida State loses, however, I think we're in good shape.
 
TxLawGrad said:
Well, virtually any permutation when looking at 5 games is going to be statistically low.

Going by the point spreads, the most likely winners (in order) are:

- Michigan (favored by 23 over Iowa)
- Texas (-14.5 over OSU)
- Oregon (-9.5 over UW, which I don't understand)
- Georgia (-4.5 over Alabama)
- Florida St (-2.5 over Louisville)

If those hold to true to form, we're out - Oregon would likely be ahead of us. If Oregon wins and Florida State loses, however, I think we're in good shape.
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yes it looks like we are depending on Louisville and that is scary.
 
Pomspoms said:
yes it looks like we are depending on Louisville and that is scary.
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Agreed - which is why we all need to remember what you said earlier: We're 11-1, playing in the CCG with a chance of the CFP. The needle is pointing upwards, and we need to keep that in mind and be satisfied with this season overall.
 
I think we have two chances to get in. First, let me say that I don't think we are going to get selected if either of these two outcomes happen.

If FSU loses we are in or if Alabama beats Georgia. That's it. Iowa can't beat Michigan's second string players and the winner of Oregon and Washington are in.

With me conceding that we don't make the playoffs, if we end up playing someone like Tulane in a New Years Day bowl is a slap to the face of Texas fans and not a good thing as far as fans traveling to the bowl game. We need to be playing Georgia if they lose or Ohio St.
 
TxLawGrad said:
Well, virtually any permutation when looking at 5 games is going to be statistically low.

Going by the point spreads, the most likely winners (in order) are:

- Michigan (favored by 23 over Iowa)
- Texas (-14.5 over OSU)
- Oregon (-9.5 over UW, which I don't understand)
- Georgia (-4.5 over Alabama)
- Florida St (-2.5 over Louisville)

If those hold to true to form, we're out - Oregon would likely be ahead of us. If Oregon wins and Florida State loses, however, I think we're in good shape.
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Taking it down to the three closer pivotal games then using the point spreads and less of my opinion:
Georgia win .6
Louisville win .45
Washington win .4

Chance of three favorable events more closely according to point spread is:
.6 x .45 x .4 =.108 or 10.8 %
 
And another thing, which I don't ignore, that Michigan (allegedly, but really) cheating to win leaves a bad taste in my mouth not withstanding the late quality win over tOSU.
 
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Gylcomer said:
Taking it down to the three closer pivotal games then using the point spreads and less of my opinion:
Georgia win .6
Louisville win .45
Washington win .4

Chance of three favorable events more closely according to point spread is:
.6 x .45 x .4 =.108 or 10.8 %
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sounds about right
 
Pomspoms said:
And another thing, which I don't ignore, that Michigan (eledgily(?), but really) cheating to win leaves a bad taste in my mouth not withstanding the late quality win over tOSU.
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It we had cheated we would have been disqualified from the championship
 
I am hoping bama beats Georgia, which is a real possibility better than Louisville beating FSU.
Then this will bring real pressure on the committee. In this complicating scenario the committee might just think heck Georgia their chance and Texas is rolling at this moment, let's put Texas in. Just sayin.
 
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Pomspoms said:
I am hoping bama beats Georgia, which is a real possibility better than Louisville beating FSU.
Then this will bring real pressure on the committee. In this confusing scenario the committee might just think heck Georgia their chance and Texas is rolling, let's put them in. Just sayin.
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I would love for Bama to win. It would force the committee to do what they have done all year on their rankings which is have Texas above Bama.

If that happens, the SEC will not have a team in the CFP. Do you really believe they are going to let that happen. Don't be surprised if Bama jumps us if they win.
 
Pomspoms said:
I am hoping bama beats Georgia, which is a real possibility better than Louisville beating FSU.
Then this will bring real pressure on the committee. In this complicating scenario the committee might just think heck Georgia their chance and Texas is rolling, let's put Texas in. Just sayin.
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I hope the team is altogether primed and pissed off if not selected, and then crushes the SEC..like when Houston joined the SWC
 
militaryhorn said:
I would love for Bama to win. It would force the committee to do what they have done all year on their rankings which is have Texas above Bama.

If that happens, the SEC will not have a team in the CFP. Do you really believe they are going to let that happen. Don't be surprised if Bama jumps us if they win.
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This is why I don't understand all of the people wanting Bama to win. If Bama loses, they have two losses and are out of the picture. One less domino that needs to fall for us to get in.

I'm not saying it's going to happen, but the most likely 'upset' this weekend (by point spread, at least) is Louisville over Florida St. This is also the simplest, easiest way for us to get in.
 
TxLawGrad said:
This is why I don't understand all of the people wanting Bama to win. If Bama loses, they have two losses and are out of the picture. One less domino that needs to fall for us to get in.

I'm not saying it's going to happen, but the most likely 'upset' this weekend (by point spread, at least) is Louisville over Florida St. This is also the simplest, easiest way for us to get in.
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my view is that Louisville is not going to beat FSU. So I am thinking if Bama beats Georgia (which could happen) and since we beat bama that could get us in.
In this scenario if they put Georgia in despite losing then Georgia would be backing their way in instead of rolling their way in like Texas would be doing. This has a more righteous feel to getting into the CFP.
 
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militaryhorn said:
I would love for Bama to win. It would force the committee to do what they have done all year on their rankings which is have Texas above Bama.

If that happens, the SEC will not have a team in the CFP. Do you really believe they are going to let that happen. Don't be surprised if Bama jumps us if they win.
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yes I think the committee could leave the SEC OUT. What, are they privileged to the point of exclusion of others. Last I checked you have to earn your way into the CFP.
 
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My only claim here is that there is no way that a 12-1 Texas will be passed over by a 1-loss tOSU or FSU. Not going to address the 100 other permutations.
 
TxLawGrad said:
This is why I don't understand all of the people wanting Bama to win. If Bama loses, they have two losses and are out of the picture. One less domino that needs to fall for us to get in.

I'm not saying it's going to happen, but the most likely 'upset' this weekend (by point spread, at least) is Louisville over Florida St. This is also the simplest, easiest way for us to get in.
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I think if the committee puts Alabama in has to make a choice between FSU, Oregon (assuming they win), and Texas.

At this point, you have to take Texas because they beat Bama and our SoS is stronger than the other teams we are compared against.

Now, do I think this will happen? Absolutely not, they only look at record and not how each team would fair against each other. The toughest game would be against Oregon if you compared these three teams.
 
TxLawGrad said:
I disagree. The best-case scenario for us is as follows:

(1) Washington beats Oregon in the Pac 12 CCG. Oregon has 2 losses. UW is in, Oregon is out.
(2) We win comfortably (i.e., cover the spread and then some) against OSU in the Big 12 CCG. This is obvious; we have no chance if we allow the Pokes to beat us.
(3) Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC CCG. Alabama has 2 losses. Georgia is in, Alabama is out.
(4) Michigan beats Iowa in the B1G CCG. Michigan is in, leaving no doubt about who should represent the B1G in the CFP.
(5) Louisville beats Florida St. in the ACC CCG (preferably by double-digits).

That leaves the committee to choose among Texas, Ohio State, and Florida State for the last spot. Texas has the best win among that group, and will have won its CCG. I don't see how the committee picks Florida State or Ohio State over a team that lost or didn't even play in its CCG.
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I appreciate that everyone is fine with "yielding" top-4 positions in the CFP and hoping there's one remaining spot to secure. That's the most rational way to look at it.

My method, however, forces the committee's hand to actually look at who belongs and who doesn't. When everyone has 1 loss, then you need to use a more holistic method to actually figure out which four are the best ones to represent all of FBS. Otherwise, it's like gifting spots just because of the zero next to the L, like Cincy a few years ago. It also allows for some nuance for the human committee to look at things like the computer rankings too.

In that scenario, Texas has a few things going for it that the others don't have (before the CCG weekend at least):
1. Best road win in the country
2. Arguably toughest schedule in the country
3. All nonconference wins against bowl teams

The main knocks against us are the neutral site loss to a good (but not 1-loss) team and our poor 2nd halves against some middling non-bowl teams.
 
mchammer said:
My only claim here is that there is no way that a 12-1 Texas will be passed over by a 1-loss tOSU or FSU. Not going to address the 100 other permutations.
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You're definitely correct there.

The ESPN 'predictor' I just posted (and who knows how accurate it is) consistently puts a 1-loss Texas above a 1-loss Alabama. It does (contrary to my original post) seem to favor a 1-loss Oregon over a 1-loss Texas.
 
TxLawGrad said:
Agreed.

Has anyone played around with this? It seems to indicate that Texas is the most favorable 1-loss team: Create a path to the College Football Playoff by picking conference championship game winners
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Assuming both Alabama and Louisville have a 50/50 chance of winning then there is of course a 25% chance both events occur.

The selection committee, all things being equal in their minds, will not select Texas given any altogether minuscule chance to do so.

Sorry to say this but after 50 years of very closely following Texas Longhorn Football one gets it. UT has been deemed privileged and all the soft powers and particularly subjective polls and selection committees are biased against Texas..now and always have been.

It has to do with jealousy for the State of Texas and The University of Texas..more by extension than anything else. In addition there’s the hate for the success of the city of Austin. I’ve lived all over..from Maui to recently Vermont and Massachusetts..and from Bozeman to Marathon..and then all points in between too numerous to list. The hate and jealousy for Texas is perhaps way, way beyond some of your wildest imaginations.

I’ve learned to be a very low Texan profile wherever I’ve lived…starting back in Aspen and Hawaii in the early eighties
 
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TxLawGrad said:
You're definitely correct there.

The ESPN 'predictor' I just posted (and who knows how accurate it is) consistently puts a 1-loss Texas above a 1-loss Alabama. It does (contrary to my original post) seem to favor a 1-loss Oregon over a 1-loss Texas.
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We really need these 3 teams to win:
- UW
- Louisville
- Bama
 
mchammer said:
We really need these 3 teams to win:
- UW
- Louisville
- Bama
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Louisville is the key. If Florida St. wins it gets much tougher. I see the percentages and all that, but what if Bama completely dominates Georgia and we squeak by OSU (or only win by, say, a touchdown)? I have a hard time believing the committee would completely shut the SEC out of the playoff in that scenario (or maybe they would say 'well, Texas will be in the SEC next year, so that's good enough').
 
mchammer said:
Texas is in if Bama and FSU wins according to this app (No SEC teams). Yet everyone knows the SEC is down this year.
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And my "chaos method" in that app (all of the underdogs winnings except OK State) gives us the best odds of making it out of any scenario. The worst case is all of the favorites winning, regardless of whatever happens in the Pac-12.
 
Pomspoms said:
yes I think the committee could leave the SEC OUT. What are they privileged to the point of exclusion of others. Last I checked you have to earn your way into the CFP.
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How do you earn your way in? Bama beating Georgia doesn't earn a spot? Because, in case you were asleep the last 9 years, the committee loves some SEC football giving them multiple spots in the CFP a couple of times.

For some reason, the committee doesn't believe Texas is a top notch program regardless of the results on the field. Almost every metric points to us having a spot in the CFP and it seems that record and 'eye ball' test are the only thing that matters.

Oregon has only one win against a top 25 CFP team and that happened this last weekend. Granted we have only one win against a team in the top 25 but it is the number 8 team.
 
militaryhorn said:
How do you earn your way in? Bama beating Georgia doesn't earn a spot? Because, in case you were asleep the last 9 years, the committee loves some SEC football giving them multiple spots in the CFP a couple of times.

For some reason, the committee doesn't believe Texas is a top notch program regardless of the results on the field. Almost every metric points to us having a spot in the CFP and it seems that record and 'eye ball' test are the only thing that matters.

Oregon has only one win against a top 25 CFP team and that happened this last weekend. Granted we have only one win against a team in the top 25 but it is the number 8 team.
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I know - I understand some, but not all, of the Oregon love. But why on earth are they favored by 9.5 against UW? Do the oddsmakers just think it will be that hard for UW to beat Oregon twice in one season?
 
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