AP Poll

mchammer said:
This is the same thinking that leads one to think that Vegas doesn’t have sources within every P5 team regarding injuries and the like.
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Really, all 60+ teams? What sources - players, coaches, training staff? And for what - cash payments, buffet tickets, free parking? Pretty big if true that bribes are being taken to give out confidential information to a 3rd party, when that info can get used by the team's opponents.

And you do realize that "Vegas", meaning sport gambling which sounds less in the know and cool, but more correct, doesn't give a rats *** who wins or loses a game, merely that there's equal amounts of money bet on both sides, so they don't have to gamble themselves, they get their fee for hosting the bet, and let the suckers actually gamble.
 
Duck Dodgers said:
Really, all 60+ teams? What sources - players, coaches, training staff? And for what - cash payments, buffet tickets, free parking? Pretty big if true that bribes are being taken to give out confidential information to a 3rd party, when that info can get used by the team's opponents.

And you do realize that "Vegas", meaning sport gambling which sounds less in the know and cool, but more correct, doesn't give a rats *** who wins or loses a game, merely that there's equal amounts of money bet on both sides, so they don't have to gamble themselves, they get their fee for hosting the bet, and let the suckers actually gamble.
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You apparently don’t realize that Vegas is the one who outed Michigan’s sign stealing.
 
We get no respect in the north or southeast. Some of you may not remember the disrespect we got in the 60s from the pollsters. I am not surprised we have not moved in the rankings. I know my glass is half empty,but I doubt if we move up if we beat OkieLite.
 
Remember when the B12 needed to add the extra data point and add the CCG. Well, that extra data point better carry the day over tOSU. I like to believe we'd carry the day over them after the CCG's. I still think if FSU wins and Georgia wins we'll get in. But maybe that's wishful thinking. To me where it really gets interesting is if Bama beats Georgia. Do you put Bama ahead of us? I just can't see not taking an SEC team and I certainly can't see Georgia getting in ahead of Bama with a loss.
 
Do you think B10 will get the benefit of the doubt for a 2nd team when Michigan last year got trounced by TCU?
 
I just read that if FSU loses next week, they will play tOSU in a bowl game. So how will OSU be in CFP then??
 
We are now ahead of Bama on all but 3 ballots. So long as we win, they will stay in our rear-view mirror. If we win, we need any one of the following to lose:
  • Georgia
  • Michigan
  • Florida State
If 2 of those teams lose, it will be very interesting to see who gets the 4th spot.
 
wadster said:
Remember when the B12 needed to add the extra data point and add the CCG. Well, that extra data point better carry the day over tOSU. I like to believe we'd carry the day over them after the CCG's. I still think if FSU wins and Georgia wins we'll get in. But maybe that's wishful thinking. To me where it really gets interesting is if Bama beats Georgia. Do you put Bama ahead of us? I just can't see not taking an SEC team and I certainly can't see Georgia getting in ahead of Bama with a loss.
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absolutely no way bama gets in if we both finish with victories!
 
NJlonghorn said:
We are now ahead of Bama on all but 3 ballots. So long as we win, they will stay in our rear-view mirror. If we win, we need any one of the following to lose:
  • Georgia
  • Michigan
  • Florida State
If 2 of those teams lose, it will be very interesting to see who gets the 4th spot.
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I'm not sure which poll you are referring to. The coaches poll perhaps? The following is the procedure for the official poll that will determine the final four teams. I think you are referring to some other poll. The official poll is the result of a meeting of 13 selection committee members, and it is more complicated than just a single tabulation of their individual ballots. https://www.si.com/fannation/colleg...playoff-rankings-top-25-how-cfp-process-works
 
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stanhin said:
Personally, I'm not saying anything. ;) I just linked to the polls. Also remember it's Tuesday's poll that counts . . . not these.
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It's actually the CFP poll after the CCG that counts.
I can't see OSU being placed ahead of a conference champion if we win.
(maybe a different story if the pokes were to win)
Common opponebts are supposed to count.
What if Bama beats Georgia?
We have a common opponent with Georgia in Bama.
We beat them and they lose to them.
 
HTownBevo said:
Playoff hopes were dashed when Sark and Ewers were absent 1st half against Iowa St. Like it, don’t like it fair or not fair. Can’t put up 6 in a half and not expect anyone to notice
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If they are indeed dashed then I think we can look back to lack of defense for 75 seconds in the RRS.
 
moondog_LFZ said:
If they are indeed dashed then I think we can look back to lack of defense for 75 seconds in the RRS.
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And Houston, KState, and TCU. If we cover the spread on 2 of those 3 we're in a stronger position. You'd think we'd learn our lesson on style points from 08. Play like we did against Tech this week and you may see some change. OSU should not score more than 17 if we don't turn the ball over.
 
stanhin said:
I'm not sure which poll you are referring to. The coaches poll perhaps? The following is the procedure for the official poll that will determine the final four teams. I think you are referring to some other poll. The official poll is the result of a meeting of 13 selection committee members, and it is more complicated than just a single tabulation of their individual ballots. https://www.si.com/fannation/colleg...playoff-rankings-top-25-how-cfp-process-works
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I’m referring to the AP poll. I know it’s not official, but it does tend to correlate pretty closely with how the committee thinks.
 
I don't know how much weight to put in it, but some of the big mouth pundits out there screaming how Alabama goes ahead of Texas if they beat Georgia, because a win over #1 Georgia is better than head to head :brickwall::puke:
 
Worst case scenario (other that Texas losing) is:
  • Close win for UT
  • Close win for UO
  • Close win for Bama
  • Big FSU win
  • Big Iowa win

That seems like it ought to help us, but it makes the committee give a hard look at putting in:

  • UO for sure
  • UW maybe
  • Bama for sure
  • UGA probably
  • FSU for sure
  • UM maybe
  • tOSU maybe
We might stay 7th!

if you think we jump tOSU or UM, change it to Iowa barely wins or UM wins...
 
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The amount of ridiculous cynicism and pessimism on this board is incredible. In the 9 years the CFP has existed, all but 8 qualifiers have won a power-5 conference title. The others were:
  • 2016 Ohio State, with one loss. The conference champs they beat out were 2-loss OU and 2-loss Penn State.
  • 2017 Bama, with one loss. The conference champs they beat out were 2-loss Ohio State and 2-loss USC
  • 2018 Notre Dame, undefeated. The conference champs they beat out were 1-loss Ohio State and 2-loss Washington
  • 2020 Notre Dame, with one loss. The conference champs they beat out were 2-loss OU and 2-loss Oregon.
  • 2021 Georgia, with 1 loss, and Cinci, undefeated. The conference champs they beat out were 2-loss Baylor, 3-loss Utah, and 2-loss Pitt.
  • 2022 TCU, with 1 loss, and Ohio State, with 1 loss. The conference champs they beat out were 2-loss KSU, 2-loss Clemson, and 3-loss Utah. They also beat out 2-loss Alabama.
No power-5 conference champ has EVER lost a slot to a non-conference champ with the same record. There is no chance the committee would make Texas the first team to suffer that fate, even if we didn't have a top-10 SOS and a win over Bama. With those two factors added in, its laughable to even throw it out for discussion.
 
Bayerithe said:
pundits out there screaming how Alabama goes ahead of Texas if they beat Georgia, because a win over #1 Georgia is better than head to head
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If Bama beats Georgia then maybe Georgia wasn't the #1 team (speculation). Bama had a chance to beat Texas and failed (fact).
 
NJlonghorn said:
The amount of ridiculous cynicism and pessimism on this board is incredible. In the 9 years the CFP has existed, all but 8 qualifiers have won a power-5 conference title. The others were:
  • 2016 Ohio State, with one loss. The conference champs they beat out were 2-loss OU and 2-loss Penn State.
  • 2017 Bama, with one loss. The conference champs they beat out were 2-loss Ohio State and 2-loss USC
  • 2018 Notre Dame, undefeated. The conference champs they beat out were 1-loss Ohio State and 2-loss Washington
  • 2020 Notre Dame, with one loss. The conference champs they beat out were 2-loss OU and 2-loss Oregon.
  • 2021 Georgia, with 1 loss, and Cinci, undefeated. The conference champs they beat out were 2-loss Baylor, 3-loss Utah, and 2-loss Pitt.
  • 2022 TCU, with 1 loss, and Ohio State, with 1 loss. The conference champs they beat out were 2-loss KSU, 2-loss Clemson, and 3-loss Utah. They also beat out 2-loss Alabama.
No power-5 conference champ has EVER lost a slot to a non-conference champ with the same record. There is no chance the committee would make Texas the first team to suffer that fate, even if we didn't have a top-10 SOS and a win over Bama. With those two factors added in, its laughable to even throw it out for discussion.
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It's nice to know that there's precedent, but there are going to be a lot more 1-loss teams this season, and I think we all know how the rest of the college football world perceives Texas. It's easy to put a 1-loss conference champ TCU in over a bunch of 2-loss teams. It's a different conversation to put a 1-loss conference champ Texas in over every other 1-loss team.

As for the perception of Texas, pretty much anyone I talk to outside of Longhorn fandom has the same idea: always saying they're back but never really back. I get that the Sam quote got blown out of proportion (he has even alluded to it). But there's a tinge of truth to it.

I know we lost to a decent team and not the likes of UCF or whatever, but when it comes down to it:
A Washington loss would be to a better team than OU (Oregon).
The Oregon loss was to a better team than OU (Wash).
The Bama loss was to a better team than OU (us).
A UGA loss would be to a better team than OU (Bama).
The tOSU loss was to a better team than OU (Mich).

So at that point, we're basically saying "hey committee, I know we had the worst loss among those teams, but because of the H2H with Bama and the CCG, gotta let it slide." And I don't think everyone agrees with that methodology. Including the 2008 pollsters. And everyone who watched us in the 2nd halves of the UH, KSU, and TCU games.

This is why we basically need the CFP gods to create chaos this weekend:
UO over Wash
Bama over UGA
Iowa over Mich
Louisville over FSU

When everyone has 1 loss, no one can have zero losses. Sayeth Confucius.
 
Horns11 said:
This is why we basically need the CFP gods to create chaos this weekend:
UO over Wash
Bama over UGA
Iowa over Mich
Louisville over FSU

When everyone has 1 loss, no one can have zero losses. Sayeth Confucius.
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I disagree. The best-case scenario for us is as follows:

(1) Washington beats Oregon in the Pac 12 CCG. Oregon has 2 losses. UW is in, Oregon is out.
(2) We win comfortably (i.e., cover the spread and then some) against OSU in the Big 12 CCG. This is obvious; we have no chance if we allow the Pokes to beat us.
(3) Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC CCG. Alabama has 2 losses. Georgia is in, Alabama is out.
(4) Michigan beats Iowa in the B1G CCG. Michigan is in, leaving no doubt about who should represent the B1G in the CFP.
(5) Louisville beats Florida St. in the ACC CCG (preferably by double-digits).

That leaves the committee to choose among Texas, Ohio State, and Florida State for the last spot. Texas has the best win among that group, and will have won its CCG. I don't see how the committee picks Florida State or Ohio State over a team that lost or didn't even play in its CCG.
 
TxLawGrad said:
I disagree. The best-case scenario for us is as follows:

(1) Washington beats Oregon in the Pac 12 CCG. Oregon has 2 losses. UW is in, Oregon is out.
(2) We win comfortably (i.e., cover the spread and then some) against OSU in the Big 12 CCG. This is obvious; we have no chance if we allow the Pokes to beat us.
(3) Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC CCG. Alabama has 2 losses. Georgia is in, Alabama is out.
(4) Michigan beats Iowa in the B1G CCG. Michigan is in, leaving no doubt about who should represent the B1G in the CFP.
(5) Louisville beats Florida St. in the ACC CCG (preferably by double-digits).

That leaves the committee to choose among Texas, Ohio State, and Florida State for the last spot. Texas has the best win among that group, and will have won its CCG. I don't see how the committee picks Florida State or Ohio State over a team that lost or didn't even play in its CCG.
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The chance of all four favorable events happening is statistically low
Georgia win .6
Texas win .8
Washington win .6
Louisville win .6
.6 x .8 x .6 x .6 =.1728 or 17.28%
 
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TxLawGrad said:
I don't see how the committee picks Florida State or Ohio State over a team that lost or didn't even play in its CCG.
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CORRECTION: I don't see how the committee puts Florida State (after losing its CCG) over Ohio State (not even playing in its CCG) over Texas (who will have won its CCG).
 
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