AP Poll

guy4321 said:
Have you ever heard of the SEC?
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This is what I'm worried about. I know that deep down people want to believe that NJ is right about the conference champ thing, but I don't think the humans on the committee would necessarily make the same decision as all those data points indicate. There's too much love for either Bama or UGA to completely nix the idea that both should be in with a Bama win. UGA can play the back-to-back champs card as well as the "other teams have lost (or not even played in) their CCG and gotten in" thing that seems to sway certain *ahem* sectors of people.

I don't believe the SEC will be kept out of it. We pretty much know that the Pac won't be ignored either. Just win Saturday and let the chips fall. Honestly, we can just use the experience as a lesson to not let OU game clock management ruin our season.
 
I presume Georgia is going to win without much sweat. If Texas can beat Bama at their place by 10, then Georgia should win easily.
 
Horns11 said:
This is what I'm worried about. I know that deep down people want to believe that NJ is right about the conference champ thing, but I don't think the humans on the committee would necessarily make the same decision as all those data points indicate. There's too much love for either Bama or UGA to completely nix the idea that both should be in with a Bama win. UGA can play the back-to-back champs card as well as the "other teams have lost (or not even played in) their CCG and gotten in" thing that seems to sway certain *ahem* sectors of people.
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I think a lot of it will depend on the 'style' points in the CCGs. If we struggle but barely beat OkState, and Alabama blows out UGA, I can see the committee putting Bama ahead of us. If the reverse is true, there's less of a case for that.
 
TxLawGrad said:
I think a lot of it will depend on the 'style' points in the CCGs. If we struggle but barely beat OkState, and Alabama blows out UGA, I can see the committee putting Bama ahead of us. If the reverse is true, there's less of a case for that.
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I agree, and even then, there's still a slim case for the "Texas blowout, Bama narrow win" to keep us out. OK State got blown the **** out by UCF, narrowly beat a team we beat by 4 TDs to get into the CCG, and by the way, beat the team we lost to. Meanwhile, Bama would have beaten the #1 team in the country.

I have an ofrenda set up to offset all of this, however. It's got Kirk Ferentz and Louisville plastered all over it.
 
TxLawGrad said:
I think a lot of it will depend on the 'style' points in the CCGs. If we struggle but barely beat OkState, and Alabama blows out UGA, I can see the committee putting Bama ahead of us. If the reverse is true, there's less of a case for that.
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Georgia is already in win or lose. Alabama is in with a win. 99% chance Michigan is in with win.. That leaves one spot for us,FSU,or PAC 12 winner. The only way we get in is Alabama and FSU both lose. Lots of people making this a lot more difficult than it is.
 
I_Dont_Exist said:
Georgia is already in win or lose. Alabama is in with a win. 99% chance Michigan is in with win.. That leaves one spot for us,FSU,or PAC 12 winner. The only way we get in is Alabama and FSU both lose. Lots of people making this a lot more difficult than it is.
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I think it was Bobby. Burton says common opponents are supposed to count.
So if Bama beats Georgia and we win the conference championship, we have a common opponent with Georgia.
That's Bama.
We beat Bama. Georgia would have lost to Bama.
So we go in over Georgia in that case.
 
I_Dont_Exist said:
Georgia is already in win or lose. Alabama is in with a win. 99% chance Michigan is in with win.. That leaves one spot for us,FSU,or PAC 12 winner. The only way we get in is Alabama and FSU both lose. Lots of people making this a lot more difficult than it is.
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Most years I would agree that Georgia is in win or lose. This year is very different in that we have four undefeated teams going into championship weekend. The dilemma that faces the committee is what do you do if Alabama wins Saturday and all the other undefeated teams win.

That gives you three conference champions that are undefeated and two one loss conference champs (assuming we win).

Who is in based on this being the only outcome that could leave the SEC out of the playoffs?

There is no explanation that the committee can give that would rationalize leaving an undefeated power 5 champion out of the playoffs. That leaves the last spot between Texas and Alabama. I can definitely see them rationalizing that 'Bama beat the number one team and should get in over Texas.

Like I have said a couple weeks ago, we are out of the playoffs unless FSU loses. That is our only path.
 
moondog_LFZ said:
I think it was Bobby. Burton says common opponents are supposed to count.
So if Bama beats Georgia and we win the conference championship, we have a common opponent with Georgia.
That's Bama.
We beat Bama. Georgia would have lost to Bama.
So we go in over Georgia in that case.
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Sure as hell hope you're right but have strong doubts you are. I'll gladly be back to admit I'm wrong. Won't be back for the proverbial ' I told you so'. I want to be wrong with every ounce of being I have left.
 
Georgia is not going to lose to bama. Milroe is a run first qb who has medium passing ability. Georgia will limit both options for him with their stout d.
 
What sucks is that Bama/UGA game is in front of the FSU game. I sure would have more fun with the Bama game if I knew the results of the FSU game.
 
militaryhorn said:
Like I have said a couple weeks ago, we are out of the playoffs unless FSU loses. That is our only path.
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The ESPN "predictor" says that if Bama, FSU, Michigan, Texas all win, Texas goes to the playoff and there will be no SEC representative ...

... but also says that Texas's chance is 57%, and Bama's is 43%. So that's definitely not a slam dunk.

FSU losing is our very best chance. Not our <i>only</i> chance, but definitely the best chance. If we win and FSU loses, the committee would really, really have to want to specifically exclude Texas from the playoff and (1) put two 1-loss SEC teams in, (2) put a 1-loss Ohio State in that didn't win its division, (3) put a 1-loss Michigan in that lost to Iowa in its CCG, (4) put a 1-loss Washington in that lost to Oregon in its CCG, or (5) put a 1-loss Florida State in that lost to Louisville in its CCG.

(1) is possible, but not likely.
(2) is very, very doubtful.
(3) is virtually unthinkable.
(4) is possible, but not likely unless the Pac-12 CCG is very close.
(5) is virtually unthinkable.

.... and I think any of those scenarios are only viable if we play poorly and just squeak out a win vs. OkState.
 
ESPN show announcing the latest poll is starting now. Fingers crossed. . . .Alabama still 8 . . . Texas still 7 . . . Ohio State 6 . . . Oregon 5 . . . FSU 4

. . . Where is everybody? ;)

ESPN just interviewed the Chairman of the selection committee (he's from NC State) and pressed him on why Oregon is ahead of Texas when Texas has more quality wins, a much higher SOS, and the results against the common opponent (TTech). His response was basically that Oregon has continued to look very impressive and has a Heisman contender at QB. That didn't really satisfy me, but, of course, I'm biased. Of course, Oregon is currently favored by 9 over Washington, and, if Oregon wins, they'll be in indisputably. Finally, they closed the show by saying that Louisville v. FSU will be each team's first game against a currently ranked opponent in this latest poll.
 
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stanhin said:
ESPN show announcing the latest poll is starting now. Fingers crossed. . . .Alabama still 8 . . . Texas still 7 . . . Ohio State 6 . . . Oregon 5 . . . FSU 4

. . . Where is everybody? ;)
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The only reason FSU is still in the top 4 is because of their record. The commissioner of the committee said Oregon being ranked higher is because they have dominated in their games. Well, maybe that's because their SoS is at 62 while Texas is at 13th according to ESPN. The only win they have against the current playoff top 25 is number 20 Oregon St while Texas is number 8 Alabama and number 25 Kansas St.

Basically we are screwed regardless of what happens this weekend. Hell, they think Ohio St is better than Texas and Alabama.

Oh well, let's win out and get ready to get pumped up to play Tulane...yea!
 
Good questions were asked but crap answers were given. They are in love with the PAC 12. It is all group think and bias. Everyone hates Texas including the committee
Last year they fell in love with the Toads. This year the Ducks.
 
stanhin said:
ESPN show announcing the latest poll is starting now. Fingers crossed. . . .Alabama still 8 . . . Texas still 7 . . . Ohio State 6 . . . Oregon 5 . . . FSU 4

. . . Where is everybody? ;)

ESPN just interviewed the Chairman of the selection committee (he's from NC State) and pressed him on why Oregon is ahead of Texas when Texas has more quality wins, a much higher SOS, and the results against the common opponent (TTech). His response was basically that Oregon has continued to look very impressive and has a Heisman contender at QB. That didn't really satisfy me, but, of course, I'm biased. Of course, Oregon is currently favored by 9 over Washington, and, if Oregon wins, they'll be in indisputably. Finally, they closed the show by saying that Louisville v. FSU will be each team's first game against a currently ranked opponent in this latest poll.
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What? Louisville beat NC State and FSU beat LSU. Or do they mean CFP poll?
 
All part of the informal wealth tax we will always pay for being deemed privileged. There’s no fixin’ jealous.

If you get a chance watch Bourdain’s Houston episode..his first of three or more trips here. Though it has nothing to do with football, Anthony explains the hate for Texas from a New Yorkers perspective…it’s very bad.

In the end, it was heartwarming when he confessed that he was deeply embarrassed and very proud of us Texans.
 
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mchammer said:
Well NC State is 19 and LSU in 13 in the current CFP poll.
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Again I don't pretend to understand it, but I went back and rewatched it, and the announcer said that ESPN's crack researcher had just informed him that "this will be Louisville and Florida State's first game against a currently ranked CFP opponent on Saturday." Apparently, the crack researcher is not all she's cracked up to be. . . . or, and I'm way too lazy to research this, were LSU and NC State not "currently" ranked at the time Louisville and Florida State played them?
 
Had Texas not let Houston stay close in the game, mud stomp KSU through ALL 4 quarters, and not allow a really bad TCU to stay close, none of this would be a discussion. TCU and Houston are horrible!! Houston just fired their coach. What does anyone expect?? I mean i know some teams have close calls be we looked like we didn't even belong in the top ten in those games.

The kids played like they had everything in the bag and could cruise to the championship game. These kids still haven't learned yet. It is what it is and they deserve a response based on the final results this weekend from the committee.

I don't know if it was Stoops or Lincoln Riley or just the OU mentality but most EVERY time OU lost to a Texas team, they would go on a tear through the rest of their schedule so that by the end of the season, the committee was pretty confident that OU was actually the better team. OU would look so impressive mud stomping the same opponents as Texas, it made the Texas win look like a fluke (2008 comes to mind when they hopped over us even though we won head to head). Alabama has pretty much done the same thing, consistency. The committee is putting a lot of stock in how well Oregon is mud stomping their opponents and there is even discussion of Alabama hopping over us into the CFP if they win the SEC for the same exact reason.

I don't know what they do to get their kids to perform at that level but Texas needs to figure out the same consistency and will receive the same benefit. In about half the scenario's from this weekend because of that lackadaisical play, we lose the committee's eye test and will subsequently lose a shot in the CFP.

I will say, we do have one more chance to make an impression, I'm just not sure how the committee will judge it, OSU has been about as inconsistent as any team in the country. UCF mud stomped OSU and UCF is pitiful, so the committee may just look at that and say, "Well, UCF did it too, and they suck". We may have to beat OSU like 70-3 in order to change some opinions.

If there was any time to start the "All gas, no Brakes" and actually apply it to on the field performance, it needs to start this Saturday.
 
militaryhorn said:
Most years I would agree that Georgia is in win or lose. This year is very different in that we have four undefeated teams going into championship weekend. The dilemma that faces the committee is what do you do if Alabama wins Saturday and all the other undefeated teams win.

That gives you three conference champions that are undefeated and two one loss conference champs (assuming we win).

Who is in based on this being the only outcome that could leave the SEC out of the playoffs?

There is no explanation that the committee can give that would rationalize leaving an undefeated power 5 champion out of the playoffs. That leaves the last spot between Texas and Alabama. I can definitely see them rationalizing that 'Bama beat the number one team and should get in over Texas.

Like I have said a couple weeks ago, we are out of the playoffs unless FSU loses. That is our only path.
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I definitely agree that this year is different. Unless Iowa beats Michigan, the playoff will almost assuredly consist of four conference champions. Georgia and Washington will not get in if they lose.

Florida State losing is definitely key here, but many still believe we have a shot if FSU wins and Alabama beats Georgia. That will launch the whole Alabama vs. Texas debate. ESPN gives a slight edge to Texas in that conversation, but style points will definitely matter if it comes down to that.
 
We will make the playoff if these four things happen. If all four don’t happen, then we won’t make it.

1) We win (a stomping would help but isn’t necessary. We do have to win by 10+)
2) Louisville beats Florida State
3) Washington beats Oregon (ideally by 10+ but isn’t necessary)
4) Georgia beats Alabama (ideally by less than 10)
 
Horns365 said:
We will make the playoff if these four things happen. If all four don’t happen, then we won’t make it.

1) We win (a stomping would help but isn’t necessary. We do have to win by 10+)
2) Louisville beats Florida State
3) Washington beats Oregon (ideally by 10+ but isn’t necessary)
4) Georgia beats Alabama (ideally by less than 10)
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1 & 2 has to happen. The winner of 3 is automatically in and 4 is irrelevant in my opinion if 1 & 2 happens.
 
militaryhorn said:
1 & 2 has to happen. The winner of 3 is automatically in and 4 is irrelevant in my opinion if 1 & 2 happens.
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Yes, the winner of 3 is automatically in, which is why it has to be Washington for us to make the playoff. If Oregon wins, then there would be some question between Washington and us. If Washington wins, then there is no question we are better than a two loss Oregon.

The same logic applies to 4. If Alabama wins, there may be some question amongst some committee members between Alabama and us (even though it’s been settled on the field). If Georgia wins, then there is no doubt we’re better than a two loss Alabama (which includes a loss to us). But we need this game to be close, since we are pinning a lot of our resume to Alabama being a very good, but not great, team.
 
Horns365 said:
Yes, the winner of 3 is automatically in, which is why it has to be Washington for us to make the playoff. If Oregon wins, then there would be some question between Washington and us. If Washington wins, then there is no question we are better than a two loss Oregon.

The same logic applies to 4. If Alabama wins, there may be some question amongst some committee members between Alabama and us (even though it’s been settled on the field). If Georgia wins, then there is no doubt we’re better than a two loss Alabama (which includes a loss to us). But we need this game to be close, since we are pinning a lot of our resume to Alabama being a very good, but not great, team.
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Do not agree at all. You are way overthinking this. If Oregon wins, Washington is out. No way in hell a 1 loss non-conf champ Washington stays in front of us. If Oregon loses they have 2 losses so #3 is completely irrelevant. If Bama beats Georgia it gets a bit more dicy, but not by that much. Honestly if FSU loses and Bama beats Georgia we're probably a 3 seed. 1) UM 2) winner of the PAC 3) us 4) Bama. If Georgia wins 1) Georgia, 2) UM, 3) winner of the pac 4) us. All we need is FSU to lose and I like our chances. A lot.

Nobody is talking about tOSU, but again a non-conf champ tOSU is not staying ahead of us if we win and FSU loses. They can play the loser of the PAC championship.
 
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