The big flaw in it is that it requires Trump to have the self-awareness to see that his age would be a drawback and that his ego would tolerate someone else getting the attention. Obviously he hates and is humiliated by the idea of losing, so I don't think he'd run if he thought he would lose especially in the primary, becaue he'd have no one to blame but himself. However, at least right now, though the January 6th riot is politically toxic in a general election, it clearly did very little damage to him among Republican voters. That's why Liz Cheney is in trouble.
And what's very telling about Trump and his influence is that his preferred conference chair is Elise Stefanik (R-NY). I generally like Stefanik. She's young and well-spoken and frankly, kinda cute, and all of that plays well in her moderate, North Country New York district, which might otherwise elect Democrats. (Outside of the New York City metro area, New York Democrats are more moderate.) However, she has a significantly less conservative record than Cheney does. Her big asset is that she's a bigger Trump loyalist than Cheney is.
I think a big factor will be the 2022 elections. What's going to happen to the Republicans who voted to impeach? If they win their primaries decisively, then Trump might be more cautious. However, if they all or mostly get defeated, I think he'll definitely run again barring some major health problem.
