2024 GOP Primary

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Trump doing 4% pts better than 2020 in most places. I actually think it will be 6% pts considering folks not captured yet in the polling (another 2% pts).

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

For context, 2023 election in VA (all state senate and house races) resulted in 2% pt voter lead for Dems:

 

[mchammer]

This guy gets results. Also, note how proactive GOP has been before the election to fix things.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

In 1-2 weeks we should have returned mail-in ballots and early votes to report by party in PA, NC, and FL. In VA, the numbers should be more representative of the race (too early to make conclusions according to Dems).

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Weekly version here (aggregate of 5 days):

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Marist was off 4.7% pts in 2020.

 

[Garmel]

Marist was off 4.7% pts in 2020.

It sure looks like a Trump will win with 1-3 points in the popular vote.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

It sure looks like a Trump will win with 1-3 points in the popular vote.

I saw another post that showed Marist over sampled Dems by 4% pts (for example +5% Dem voter base instead of +1).

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[Horn6721]

Demx cheated with impunity in 20 and 22. Why would they stop now?
They are reading the same polls.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

The most recent Trafalgar poll - which had Trump leading in Wisconsin - also had Baldwin up only 2 points.

Axios also reports that Republicans will be out-spending Democrats in Wisconsin with a massive $20M influx from the GOP.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]