2024 GOP Primary

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

These are ballot requests, not returned ballots. In 1-2 weeks, the ability to request ballots approaches zero and returned ballots are counted. VA is counting returned ballots and some EV. PA and FL just now are counting returned ballots, but numbers are small and uneven. Anyway, in 2 weeks the ballot request numbers will be finalized and the focus will switch to returned ballots and early votes. VA, NC, and FL have early votes but PA does not (only vote by mail).

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

If the above is true, watch Harris campaign implode with 4 weeks left to go.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Vance goes to the Varsity…SabreHorn’s favorite restaurant:

 

[mchammer]

This should be ballot requests:

 

[Horn6721]

Love it. Bidone showing some clever revenge even in his dementia OR his staff did a great gotcha on Commiela.

 

[mchammer]

NC is going from a ~400k dem advantage in voter registration in 2020 to ~100k dem advantage in 2024.

 

[Horn6721]

Maybe I am too stupid to understand. Does that mean that between 2020 and 2024 500 k more Dems registered than Republicans in NC?

 

[Garmel]

NC is going from a ~400k dem advantage in voter registration in 2020 to ~100k dem advantage in 2024.

My concern is will the hurricane ravaged areas which are mainly conservative vote in November.

 

[Horn6721]

After the way the Government has screwed the people in those states I bet they will find a way to vote

 

[Garmel]

I hope

 

[mchammer]

Maybe I am too stupid to understand. Does that mean that between 2020 and 2024 500 k more Dems registered than Republicans in NC?

No, they loss 300k registered voters relative to 2020.

 

[mchammer]

My concern is will the hurricane ravaged areas which are mainly conservative vote in November.

 

[mchammer]

My concern is will the hurricane ravaged areas which are mainly conservative vote in November.

Asheville is big dem area.

 

[Horn6721]

mc?
They don't have to re register do they? So the 400k more Demx who registered in 2020 are still registered to vote.

 

[mchammer]

mc?
They don't have to re register do they? So the 400k more Demx who registered in 2020 are still registered to vote.

Voter rolls are constantly cleaned up. It’s not a static situation. Check out the dem voter numbers circled in red below.

 

[Horn6721]

I understand. My point is the majority of the 400k more Demx who registered in 2020 are still registered plus the 100k more who registered this year
The changes that do occur occur to both parties. So unfortunately the advantage is still to the Demx.

 

[mchammer]

I understand. My point is the majority of the 400k more Demx who registered in 2020 are still registered plus the 100k more who registered this year
The changes that do occur occur to both parties. So unfortunately the advantage is still to the Demx.

No, the numbers I am referring to are not folks who registered in 2020 or 2024. It is simply total Dems registered at that time (where some could have registered over 50 years ago) vs the totals in 2024 that are relative to similar GOP totals.

 

[mchammer]

mc?
They don't have to re register do they? So the 400k more Demx who registered in 2020 are still registered to vote.

No, they don’t have to re-register. These are summed totals over 75 years or more (minus clean-up for folks dying, moving, etc.). Sorry I missed your point earlier.

 

[mchammer]

Not sure why this is hard to understand though I am sure it is related to how the data is laid out in the tweet above (it’s not obvious with a mix of tabled and bar data).

In 2020, there were 2.6m registered Dems. Today, it is 2.4m registered Dems. In that same time period, registered GOP went from 2.2m to 2.3m. Thus Dem advantaged in total registered voters went down 300k (from 400k advantage in 2020 to 100k advantage in 2024).

 

[mchammer]

mc?
They don't have to re register do they? So the 400k more Demx who registered in 2020 are still registered to vote.

I suspect you are confused with open vs closed primaries. This has come up on this site multiple times. Texas is an open primary. As a result you register as a GOP or Dem every 2 years when you vote in the primary on your choice. By registering, you can vote in any runoffs for that party and/or attend the state convention. That is not true in closed primaries. You register in advance of the primary. You cannot vote in the other party primary just by showing up. You have to change your registration beforehand. If you register as GOP when you turn 18, you are GOP for the rest of your life unless you actively change it.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Data released 30 days after polling: