2024 GOP Primary

Garmel said:
I thought so too but his poor campaigning has sunk him. There is not a chance in hell DeSantis could win a contestable Rust Belt state.
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I don't think that's true. I'd agree that Desantis isn't campaigning well overall. However, I do recognize that Trump is much harder to beat in the primary than Biden is to beat in the general election.

There's a clear playbook for dealing with Biden. When it comes to Biden, he simply has to show independent voters who aren't committed to Biden that he sucks, and Desantis wins. There isn't a clear playbook for dealing with Trump. Desantis has to show a bunch of voters who not only agree with Trump but are emotionally committed to him on a very deep level that Trump sucks or at least can't win without offending them. That's really hard to do.
 
Mr. Deez said:
I don't think that's true. I'd agree that Desantis isn't campaigning well overall. However, I do recognize that Trump is much harder to beat in the primary than Biden is to beat in the general election.

There's a clear playbook for dealing with Biden. When it comes to Biden, he simply has to show independent voters who aren't committed to Biden that he sucks, and Desantis wins. There isn't a clear playbook for dealing with Trump. Desantis has to show a bunch of voters who not only agree with Trump but are emotionally committed to him on a very deep level that Trump sucks or at least can't win without offending them. That's really hard to do.
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Well, Trump's "cult" as people call them isn't the only thing causing Trump to be ahead. DeSantis is having an awful time with independents. DeSantis is by far the better candidate but when you watch him with an unbiased eye the lack of warmth and sincerity is damaging. Not saying he's either of those but he comes off as such.
 
Garmel said:
Well, Trump's "cult" as people call them isn't the only thing causing Trump to be ahead. DeSantis is having an awful time with independents. DeSantis is by far the better candidate but when you watch him with an unbiased eye the lack of warmth and sincerity is damaging. Not saying he's either of those but he comes off as such.
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He's definitely aimless. He started off poorly with the Twitter launch - not the right way to go, and he has mostly farted around since. And though he's a powerful fighter, he isn't particularly likable.

Having said that, though I can come up with criticism of what he's doing, I'm not sure I know the right answer. If Trump was under 50 percent, it would be easier. He could just go after the other opponents. However, with Trump over 50 percent, he has to crack into Trump's support to win. I'm honestly not sure it's possible to come up with a good approach. Obviously, he'd like to make the argument that Trump lost in '20 and will lose again, but he can't do that, because most Trump supporters think he actually won. He could go after Trump on Covid (where I think he should have vulnerability) or spending, but nobody seems to care about any of that. This probably isn't going to be his year.
 
Mr. Deez said:
He's definitely aimless. He started off poorly with the Twitter launch - not the right way to go, and he has mostly farted around since. And though he's a powerful fighter, he isn't particularly likable.

Having said that, though I can come up with criticism of what he's doing, I'm not sure I know the right answer. If Trump was under 50 percent, it would be easier. He could just go after the other opponents. However, with Trump over 50 percent, he has to crack into Trump's support to win. I'm honestly not sure it's possible to come up with a good approach. Obviously, he'd like to make the argument that Trump lost in '20 and will lose again, but he can't do that, because most Trump supporters think he actually won. He could go after Trump on Covid (where I think he should have vulnerability) or spending, but nobody seems to care about any of that. This probably isn't going to be his year.
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Well, I'm with DeSantis but I do believe Trump won 2020. There are too many statistical improbabilities and too many odd occurrences. However, Trump and many of his followers want to live in the past and we can't do that. Many of them think he's entitled to 2024 just because he was screwed but that's not how things work.
I agree that DeSantis has to work on his likeability. His smile is phony and he doesn't seem comfortable in big crowds. However, he has one of the best minds I've ever seen and he knows how to run things. Far superior to Trump. However, I'm voting for Trump against Biden. The last 3 years we've seen alarming trends toward authoritarianism and it has to be stopped. Staying at home and not voting because Trump hurts your fee-fees solves zilch.
 
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Garmel said:
Well, I'm with DeSantis but I do believe Trump won 2020.
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I know you do, and frankly, I don't see any reason why there has to be such overlap between that issue and Trump support. I think one can logically think the election was stolen and still support someone else. I also think one can think the election wasn't stolen and still support him on other grounds.
 
mchammer said:
Biden only up 46-37 in NY over Trump. This race is over.
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Who are the 46% who support Biden? Inflation is up, Unemployment is up, Gas and Heating prices are up. Perhaps if the price of ice cream went up, the President would pay attention.
 
utahorn said:
Who are the 46% who support Biden? Inflation is up, Unemployment is up, Gas and Heating prices are up. Perhaps if the price of ice cream went up, the President would pay attention.
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30% of them would support anyone that has D by their name even if inflation was 100%, the others are anti-MAGA no matter what.
 
The Hamas attack likely guaranteed Trump victory. Who can defend Biden’s term?
 
mchammer said:
Who can defend Biden’s term?
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No one with a brain. I really hate writing that, but this admin is a trainwreck.

I did not vote for Biden, and I don't believe he won fair and square, but he remains my President. However, we need a change.
 
I don’t see how Trump is behind in WI relative to the other polls:

 
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