2022 House and Senate election

Garmel said:
A lot of good and upcoming guys who are not weirdos or MAGA lost in the House races. Many of McCarthy's candidates in the House bombed. Yes, there were weak candidates here and there but we have those in every election cycle.

The Murdock and MSM media are trying to say Trump or "weak candidates" (many of whom were sabotaged by Cocaine Mitch) were the cause of the problems. However, the GOP congressman are pointing their fingers toward McConnell and McCarthy. I believe the latter to be correct
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I think two things can be true at once. The Trump candidates sucked ***, and the McCarthy strategy was poor. The difference is that Trump's people were at or near the top of the ticket (Senate and Governor), which made the damage worse.

Garmel said:
Also, exit polling shows that abortion drove the democrats this time around. Dislike for Trump didn't even look to be much of a factor in the polling.
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It definitely drove Democrats to the polls, but I think it hurt us mostly because we didn't have time for things to dissipate and to show independents that nothing radical was coming. That's why it would have been helpful if the ruling had been handed down in a non-election year.

I do not blame McConnell for not throwing limited resources at people with little or no chance at winning. Trump and his people didn't think they had a chance either. That's why they cut most of the money off as well.

Garmel said:
Can we all agree that Ronna McDaniel has to go as well?
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Yes.
 
In Clark County, Nevada's largest, which includes Las Vegas, CNN estimates there are roughly 24,000 more mail-in ballots to be counted, along with about 15,000 provisional ballots and ballots that need to be cured.

In Washoe County, Nevada's second-most populous, there were about 10,000 ballots counted on Friday, and CNN estimates there are roughly 12,000 remaining.
 
Laxalt on Saturday acknowledged his narrowing lead over Cortez Masto in the too-close-to-call race, tweeting that the mostly mail-in ballots being counted were favoring Democrats by higher margins than expected.

"This has narrowed our victory window. The race will come down to 20-30K Election Day Clark drop off ballots," Laxalt tweeted.

"If they are GOP precincts or slightly DEM leaning then we can still win. If they continue to trend heavy DEM then she will overtake us," he added.
 
mchammer said:
Laxalt on Saturday acknowledged his narrowing lead over Cortez Masto in the too-close-to-call race, tweeting that the mostly mail-in ballots being counted were favoring Democrats by higher margins than expected.

"This has narrowed our victory window. The race will come down to 20-30K Election Day Clark drop off ballots," Laxalt tweeted.

"If they are GOP precincts or slightly DEM leaning then we can still win. If they continue to trend heavy DEM then she will overtake us," he added.
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If Dem wins, it means the Dem party was ballot harvesting right up to 7 pm on Election Day.
 
McConnel is the leader of the warchest money for the republicans, not Trump. While McConnell was throwing 9 million to get rid of an America First candidate in Alaska he left a lot of people who were tied or ahead in the polls flapping in the wind.

I will agree Walker and Oz are knuckleheads. The other ones aren't.
 
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There are about 275,000 ballots left to count in county, according to Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Chairman Bill Gates.

Gates said he expects that if they continue counting at the same pace -- around 60,000 to 80,000 ballots a day -- the county should be done counting by "very early next week."

Pima County, Arizona's second-most populous and home to Tucson, is expected to have roughly 85,000 ballots left to count at the end of Friday, Constance Hargrove, elections director for the county, told CNN's Wolf Blitzer and John King on Friday.
 
mchammer said:
There are about 275,000 ballots left to count in county, according to Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Chairman Bill Gates.

Gates said he expects that if they continue counting at the same pace -- around 60,000 to 80,000 ballots a day -- the county should be done counting by "very early next week."

Pima County, Arizona's second-most populous and home to Tucson, is expected to have roughly 85,000 ballots left to count at the end of Friday, Constance Hargrove, elections director for the county, told CNN's Wolf Blitzer and John King on Friday.
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Most of Maricopa's are election day drop offs. I have no idea what Pima's are. These two counties add up to 350,000 left. There are supposedly about 400k left so I wonder where the other 50k are from.
 
Garmel said:
McConnel is the leader of the warchest money for the republicans, not Trump. While McConnell was throwing 9 million to get rid of an America First candidate in Alaska he left a lot of people who were tied or ahead in the polls flapping in the wind.
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He's going to help protect incumbents who are loyal to him first. I don't condone it, but that's how congressional leadership works. Always has been. He's also not going to be quick to toss money at candidates unlikely to win, and keep in mind that the political apparatus doesn't rely on the polls we see. Very good chance that he was privy to data to which we were not. Maybe he had the same data the Democrats had when they decided to help some of these candidates win the GOP primaries. Either way, I have a hard time believing he'd rather be minority leader than to help the Trump candidates.

Garmel said:
I will agree Walker and Oz are knuckleheads. The other ones aren't.
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I wouldn't call any of them knuckleheads. I would have voted for all of them, and I don't dislike any of them. However, they did have major political liabilities that we didn't have to accept and shouldn't have accepted.
 
I find it hard to believe Mitch has has better polling info than the conservative pollsters out there.

We have to get out of this mode of "blame Trump" every time something goes wrong with this party. We have to get better leadership. Leadership who doesn't insult the MAGA candidates like McCarthy and McConnell did. You get a self-fulfilling prophecy doing that crap. Leadership who doesn't blow money on useless ventures like getting O'Deah elected who had no chance or sabotaging a MAGA candidate in favor of an old RINO. As you said Trump should shut up about DeSantis because that doesn't help either.

We have to either get rid of mail in voting or get better at it because this is killing us as well. I know you don't believe in massive election fraud but southern states that don't do mail in voting stay red. You don't have voting that last a week or two either.
 
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Yep. Mail in balloting (and it's inherent chicanery) caused AZ and GA to go from red to purple and it doesn't have a damn thing to do with Trump.
 
They deliberately lied. They told people they could go to another place to vote if the machines weren't working and they couldn't by law. BS.

 
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Garmel said:
I find it hard to believe Mitch has has better polling info than the conservative pollsters out there.
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There are two kinds of pollsters - those who put out polls to attract attention and get in the news (or get sponsored by the news to create news) and those that political organizations directly hire for no reason other than to gauge the electorate. None are perfect, but the latter are definitely better.

Garmel said:
We have to get out of this mode of "blame Trump" every time something goes wrong with this party.
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The party establishment blames Trump too much. The party base blames Trump too little. It's not all his fault, but he bears much responsibility.

Garmel said:
We have to get better leadership. Leadership who doesn't insult the MAGA candidates like McCarthy and McConnell did. You get a self-fulfilling prophecy doing that crap. Leadership who doesn't blow money on useless ventures like getting O'Deah elected who had no chance or sabotaging a MAGA candidate in favor of an old RINO.
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The leadership did fail. Though I agreed with their assessment of the candidates, there was no reason for McConnell to say so in public. (I'm not aware of McCarthy doing that, but he failed in other ways.)

Candidate recruitment was also poor on the establishment end. Rick Scott's (chair of the NRSC) job was to find solid candidates, and he failed to do it. In fact, he didn't even think it was his job. It is, and he blew it. In some races, they didn't have a preferred candidate. In others, they clearly did, but they weren't much better than the Trump candidates.

I've heard that Sandoval (NV) and Sununu (NH) were all approached to run and declined because they didn't want to haggle with Trump. I understand that, but they should have run anyway and tried to work something out.

There also should have been some kind of agenda to run on. We thought that rampant crime, chaos on the border, and inflation would translate into wins by itself. I understand the reluctance. If you put forth an agenda, you give the other side something to attack and fear-monger about. However, if you put out nothing, you let the other side frame and characterize your agenda as they see fit. And we saw that on abortion and on Social Security and Medicare.

They could have found some 80-20 issues that the Democrats would look bad opposing and run on them. How about proposing something to toughen criminal justice laws or supporting police? How about a border security enhancement proposal? How about some kind of promise to respect state abortion laws? How about a real higher education reform bill to counter the student loan forgiveness decree?

Garmel said:
As you said Trump should shut up about DeSantis because that doesn't help either.
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It definitely doesn't help, but it should tell you what his priorities are. They aren't to help the party or to elect conservatives. If they were, he wouldn't be doing that, and he would have kept helping Masters and Boulduc after the primary, whether McConnell should have done so or not.

Garmel said:
We have to either get rid of mail in voting or get better at it because this is killing us as well. I know you don't believe in massive election fraud but southern states that don't do mail in voting stay red. You don't have voting that last a week or two either.
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We better get better at it, because I don't see it going away. Voters tend to like it, because it's easier. Unless you can show clear proof of cheating, they're not going to embrace dumping it. And of course, if Democrats control any part of the process in a given state (either house of the legislature, the governorship, or the court of last resort), there is no chance of it going away.
 
Thank you SN. I was hoping someone would bring that up.
So once in 22 years is telling.
Also interesting that the state it happened in has managed to clean up voting.
What do the recent several results in Nevada and Az (not to mention Penn) have in common?
 
Instead of complaining about voting machines, cameras going dark, Chinese ballot paper, etc., Republicans should admit the obvious, Donald Trump is an albatross around the neck of the GOP. His hand picked Senate candidates, Oz, Masters, Laxalt, and soon to be Walker, all got beat in easily winnable contests. I am looking forward to Donald running again, will guarantee a Democrat president.
 
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