2022 House and Senate election

Garmel said:
One race doesn't define what we're seeing from those two states. Abrams has a lot of baggage. She's better as a kingmaker than a candidate.
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It doesn't, but shouldn't it warrant consideration? Isn't the argument against mail-in ballots that it invites fraud?
 
Mr. Deez said:
It doesn't, but shouldn't it warrant consideration? Isn't the argument against mail-in ballots that it invites fraud?
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Perhaps the gap would have been larger without it. She was a bad candidate. Have you noticed that Texas, Florida and the other southern states aren't in danger of becoming purple?
 
The results seem to be incongruent with the vote tally. Republicans won nearly 5% more of the total votes which is a pretty sizable margin. But somehow they lost Governorships and seats in the Senate plus the House will be almost perfectly split. I tend to shy away from conspiracy theories but that just feels improbable.

I understand how it can happen but wonder how often it happened in previous elections.
 
UTChE96 said:
The results seem to be incongruent with the vote tally. Republicans won nearly 5% more of the total votes which is a pretty sizable margin. But somehow they lost Governorships and seats in the Senate plus the House will be almost perfectly split. I tend to shy away from conspiracy theories but that just feels improbable.

I understand how it can happen but wonder how often it happened in previous elections.
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The count will be closer as CA count their votes.
 
Garmel said:
Perhaps the gap would have been larger without it. She was a bad candidate. Have you noticed that Texas, Florida and the other southern states aren't in danger of becoming purple?
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Maybe it would have been, but also consider two things. First, even before voting by mail became big, Georgia was less red than most southern states. Second, there was a significant disparity between Kemp's performance and Walker's. One candidate decisively won. The other is losing and would have lost if a runoff wasn't on the table.

The point is that if mail-in voting is the decisive factor rather than candidate quality, Kemp should be in a similar position to Walker. He's not. As crazy as a seems, a significant number of Georgians voted for Kemp and Warnock. Kemp seemed like a serious choice. Walker didn't.
 
Monahorns said:
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That may be true, but it's a bit like complaining about women having the right to vote. Conservatism has definitely paid a price for it, but once the change was done, there's little chance of undoing it. Does anyone think the Democrats running Pennsylvania and now Arizona are going to dump something that superficially looks good and is beneficial to them? Of course not. We simply need to get better at it.
 
Mr. Deez said:
Maybe it would have been, but also consider two things. First, even before voting by mail became big, Georgia was less red than most southern states. Second, there was a significant disparity between Kemp's performance and Walker's. One candidate decisively won. The other is losing and would have lost if a runoff wasn't on the table.

The point is that if mail-in voting is the decisive factor rather than candidate quality, Kemp should be in a similar position to Walker. He's not. As crazy as a seems, a significant number of Georgians voted for Kemp and Warnock. Kemp seemed like a serious choice. Walker didn't.
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If mail in balloting is taking 2-4 points away from republicans large wins like Kemp's won't be very noticeable.

Kemp has been an incumbent for awhile and Abrams is a bad candidate. That's why he won by a large amount.
 
One other thing, Kimberly Yee (R) was elected state treasurer of Arizona by over ten points. The mail in ballots aren't creating an impossibility for Republicans. People are splitting their tickets.
 
Mr. Deez said:
One other thing, Kimberly Yee (R) was elected state treasurer of Arizona by over ten points. The mail in ballots aren't creating an impossibility for Republicans. People are splitting their tickets.
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It's not an impossibility. It's just in close races we're going to keep losing. Even with some of the stronger House candidates that McCarthy ran we lost nearly every close race.
 
So trying to look on the bright side. This election may have been a blessing in disguise. First, Republicans will likely have a majority in the House so they can stop Biden from passing more inflationary spending. More importantly, I believe we saw the end of the Trump era (even if his supporters don't realize it yet) and the beginning of the Desantis era.
 
UTChE96 said:
So trying to look on the bright side. This election may have been a blessing in disguise. First, Republicans will likely have a majority in the House so they can stop Biden from passing more inflationary spending. More importantly, I believe we saw the end of the Trump era (even if his supporters don't realize it yet) and the beginning of the Desantis era.
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Yeah, we do need DeSantis as president over Trump. I've said that many times. However, I'm tired of the scapegoating of Trump. If you noticed the republican GOP congress members are not pointing fingers at Trump. They're pointing them at the 3 Mc's of McConnell, McDaniel, and McCarthy and mail in ballots.
 
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UTChE96 said:
I tend to shy away from conspiracy theories but that just feels improbable.
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Election fraud is not a conspiracy. It's a form of corruption just like money laundering is and it can be done quite easy. If Tammany Hall was occurring in the modern day the libs and many members of the right would be calling it a conspiracy and never would have been looked at just like we're ignoring the elephant in the room right now.
 
The term "conspiracy theorist" was coined by the CIA in 1967 so that they had a way to insult people who were critical of the things they were doing. The fact that we the people use it to mudsling each other is very sad.
 
UTChE96 said:
I believe we saw the end of the Trump era (even if his supporters don't realize it yet) and the beginning of the Desantis era.
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UTChE96, I think you're right. I really liked the policies Trump pursued during his term. However, IMO, he is not electable. We're all saying Biden is too old to serve another term - and DJT is also old. And if DJT is the nominee, it would energize the Dems to get out the anti-Trump vote (just as it did in 2020, when many weren't voting for Biden, just voting against Trump).
A ticket with DeSantis and Nikki Hakey would be a winner.
 
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Garmel said:
It's not an impossibility. It's just in close races we're going to keep losing. Even with some of the stronger House candidates that McCarthy ran we lost nearly every close race.
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I get that, and I detest mail-in voting and would even if there was literally no fraud at all (which is obviously not the case), because it makes it easy for low information people to vote, which pretty much always favors the media's preferred candidates. There's a reason why Democrats like it, and it's not their supposed reverence for "democracy."

However, it's pretty clear from Yee's performance and Kemp's that the challenge isn't insurmountable (or even necessarily a major problem) if we nominate candidates who aren't needlessly controversial beyond their positions on issues. Even if low-information, many of these voters were willing to vote for more mainstream Republicans.

Either way, I don't see the plan for getting rid of mail-in voting with Democrats now in charge in these states, so we can either improve our candidates, get better at mail-in voting, or ideally, both. Simply complaining about it isn't going to help.
 
Garmel said:
Election fraud is not a conspiracy. It's a form of corruption just like money laundering is and it can be done quite easy. If Tammany Hall was occurring in the modern day the libs and many members of the right would be calling it a conspiracy and never would have been looked at just like we're ignoring the elephant in the room right now.
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I think the reason "election fraud" hasn't resonated with more people is that the narrative wrapped all things into "fraud". While dead people voting is outlandish and grabs headlines, there is not a large number that are provable. what is much more significant is ballot harvesting but the camp that hangs on to the fraud narrative has failed to get most people to make the connection between harvesting, which is a legal practice in some places, and fraud.
 
Mr. Deez said:
I get that, and I detest mail-in voting and would even if there was literally no fraud at all (which is obviously not the case), because it makes it easy for low information people to vote, which pretty much always favors the media's preferred candidates. There's a reason why Democrats like it, and it's not their supposed reverence for "democracy."

However, it's pretty clear from Yee's performance and Kemp's that the challenge isn't insurmountable (or even necessarily a major problem) if we nominate candidates who aren't needlessly controversial beyond their positions on issues. Even if low-information, many of these voters were willing to vote for more mainstream Republicans.

Either way, I don't see the plan for getting rid of mail-in voting with Democrats now in charge in these states, so we can either improve our candidates, get better at mail-in voting, or ideally, both. Simply complaining about it isn't going to help.
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Those are popular incumbents who are outliers. Finding people who can win by 2-4 points to beat the mail in ballots is hard. Like you said we have to get better at it ourselves.
 
Garmel said:
Those are popular incumbents who are outliers. Finding people who can win by 2-4 points to beat the mail in ballots is hard. Like you said we have to get better at it ourselves.
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You also have to end mail-in balloting if you ever get in power.

But we are asking the Republican Party to actually fight for power and use it move the country in a conservative direction. That isn't what they are for.
 
Garmel said:
Those are popular incumbents who are outliers. Finding people who can win by 2-4 points to beat the mail in ballots is hard. Like you said we have to get better at it ourselves.
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Either way, I think you're right. We have to get better at it. We need to get our people voting as soon as possible. Basically, we need an army of volunteers to get people voting by mail - like the Democrats do. I think it's a crock of ****, but retaking Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and similar states certainly gets a lot of harder if we don't.
 
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