2022 House and Senate election

Bolduc takes the lead in NH. Would be a current GOP seat but for 500 votes in 2016, via students who voted in NH but actually residents of another state:

 
If Pennsylvania votes in Fetterman, one of two things is true:

1) Pennsylvanians are idiots
2) The election is rigged

Fetterman might be the worst senate candidate of all time.
 
Susquehanna has Oz +1 in PA senate. They lean a little left, so I assume PA senate is now firmly in the bag for the GOP (it took a while for the polls to catch up to what the campaign professionals knew). The next cliffhangers are AZ, WA, and CO (in that order).

I think the line will be between WA and CO come Election Day. CO likely within 1-2 points short of GOP flip.
 
Need another 1-2 pt shift in the last week for GOP to win WA and CO. Quite possible, particularly if the market dives again like today.
 
CO won't go red for the senate. Just won't

Wrap up NV, WI, NC, OH, GA, with PA. NH, as good possibilities, and to a lesser chance, WA. That gives us NLT 52 seats. Maybe 53 or 54

Re Arizona, I think the momentum started too late, but hopefully lake can drag masters across the line too

The unjust part is, Turtle has poured 9 million into Murkowski's pocket leaving Tshibaka out in the cold. Fk mitch. I'd rather have murk out of there
 
Horn2RunAgain said:
CO won't go red for the senate. Just won't

Wrap up NV, WI, NC, OH, GA, with PA. NH, as good possibilities, and to a lesser chance, WA. That gives us NLT 52 seats. Maybe 53 or 54

Re Arizona, I think the momentum started too late, but hopefully lake can drag masters across the line too

The unjust part is, Turtle has poured 9 million into Murkowski's pocket leaving Tshibaka out in the cold. Fk mitch. I'd rather have murk out of there
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I want 56-44 and a complete melt down of the Dem party. DeSantis win and an unfavorable Senate map for Dems in 2024 means 60 vote majority for GOP.
 
I have this feeling in the pit of my stomach that if mitch isn't replaced nothing improves, nothing changes. All talk No walk.

What are the chances mitch and/ or McCarthy are replaced? They're ineffective
 
mchammer said:
Susquehanna has Oz +1 in PA senate. They lean a little left, so I assume PA senate is now firmly in the bag for the GOP (it took a while for the polls to catch up to what the campaign professionals knew). .
Click to expand...

Otoh, fetterwoman is up by 4 in fox's latest poll, and up 2 in the latest USA Today polls. Both were taken after the debate, which in a sane world would have Oz up by 100 pts.
 
Re PA Senate race and debate, I can't tell you how many interviewees in PA on fox and cnn have said basically "yeah the debate was hard to watch, but Fetterman will vote the way I'd want", or "I think Oz won the debate but he's not one of us. He's just a carpetbagger. "
That **** is worrisome
 
Horn2RunAgain said:
CO won't go red for the senate. Just won't
Click to expand...

Probably not, but it has done so much more recently (2014) than Washington has (1994).

Horn2RunAgain said:
The unjust part is, Turtle has poured 9 million into Murkowski's pocket leaving Tshibaka out in the cold. Fk mitch. I'd rather have murk out of there
Click to expand...

I despise Murkowski, but leadership doesn't typically try to unseat incumbents from the same party, especially in the general election. I wouldn't give him crap about not doing so here, especially when the money can be sent unseating or fighting off Democrats who are much worse.
 
Mr. Deez said:
Probably not, but it has done so much more recently (2014) than Washington has (1994).



I despise Murkowski, but leadership doesn't typically try to unseat incumbents from the same party, especially in the general election. I wouldn't give him crap about not doing so here, especially when the money can be sent unseating or fighting off Democrats who are much worse.
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Mitch is doing so at the expense of the future of the party. Murkowski is the past. Her republican counterpart is the future.

The future of the party should take control now. Otherwise it's the same old. Remember the promises to ditch Obama care once the Rs took control in 2014? Never happened. No leadership in the House was interested in improvement, just the majority.
 
Polls now showing GOP ahead in NH, PA, GA, and NV. AZ is within 1 point, but I suspect that is due to poll lag. Look for GOP ahead in AZ by Election Day. The big question now is WA and CO. At most dems wins by 1-2 points. Also a lot of Dem governors that win by 1-2 points, if at all.
 
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