2022 House and Senate election

Horns11 said:
I'll put money on Murray and give Smiley a +4% in the spread. While the people hoping to oust Murray are very vocal and pointing out some things that need to change, the establishment there isn't having it. And while it's true that Smiley gained ground, it was a pretty vast separation that she dug into. Kind of like when Beto cut into Ted's lead a few years ago. My guess is that the new Trafalgar will show Murray with +2 in the coming days.
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That sounds about right. The political climate strongly favors the GOP, and Smiley is a respectable candidate. However, Washington is pretty blue, and it has reliably elected Murray since 1992. Very hard to imagine them ousting her. Dino Rossi gave her a decent challenge in 2010, and he couldn't knock her off in a big Republican year. I think the Beta comparison is pretty good.

I will say this. If she does defeat Murray, the Democrats are in serious trouble. They aren't winning any of the even somewhat competitive races.
 
To win in WA, the Republican would have to be leading by over 1 percent when the regular counting is over, otherwise the King County Fraud Machine will kick in, and count and count and count various spoiled, altered, or just plain fabricated ballots, as they did in 2004 (?) to Rossi in the governors race.

He won that race, won the recount, won the second recount, but by recount #3, the Fraud Machine had created enough ballots to push the Democrat into the lead. Then all counting is over, election over, you're a sore loser if you ask a question about it. Now they'd add Election Denier!!!, and sic the KGBI on you.

That's been 18 years - a eternity in politics, to totally embed the ballot stuffing infrastructure. Unless Smiley has such a lead after the first count that the Democrats and their media scum think it's out of reach, the counting will continue until Murray wins.

Also, just for general information, Murry is generally considered one of the two dumbest Senators - her along with Hirono from HI. With either one, you could shine a light in one ear, and make shadow puppets on the other side. Dumb as stumps, but in both cases, propped up by their party machine.
 
Wa, like MN, a republican would have to win by 3 pts to actually be declared the winner. Seattle / twin cities votes will pile in when needed late

PA is what I'm watching this year. No way fetterwoman gets the votes, yet dems there are sure he's going to win. Campaigning like Biden, dems are smug, not worried about getting beat.
 
My gut feel (with very little substance to back it up) - the horrible crime and homeless situation in Seattle has reached the boiling point with voters. Hoping enough voters say "Enough!" and vote GOP to send the message of rejection to the Dems. It would be a tremendous win for the GOP if Tiffany can pull it off.
 
Real Clear Politics prediction for House has moved from +22 GOP to + 29 in the last 2-3 weeks. Granted in July or so, it was +25. I think I originally predicted +30 seats earlier this year (Spring). Will search for it in the next 2 weeks.
 
mchammer said:
Real Clear Politics prediction for House has moved from +22 GOP to + 29 in the last 2-3 weeks. Granted in July or so, it was +25. I think I originally predicted +30 seats earlier this year (Spring). Will search for it in the next 2 weeks.
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With their minority already pretty big, picking up 30 would be tough. In '18, Democrats gained 41, but their minority was 19 seats smaller than the GOP minority is. Picking up 30 would be the best equivalent of more like 50 under normal circumstances.
 
Trafalgar has MN gov race as a tie. If this is true, the wave is ascending. At this pace, in 2 weeks, dems lose every nominally competitive race.
 
mchammer said:
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They clearly wanted the white guy to look dumb and for the black Democratic woman to smugly disagree with him and make him look bad. Then she largely reinforced his point. If black Democratic voters are starting to think that way to any significant degree the party is in serious trouble.
 
Mr. Deez said:
If black Democratic voters are starting to think that way to any significant degree the party is in serious trouble.
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If GOP gains 30 house seats and 5 senate seats, you are going to see a massive circular firing squad on the Dem side after November.
 
If the RINOs gain full control, they can be as ineffective as the last time they had full control!

(Don't want to upset those media folks)
 
Apparently cnn put out a poll with registered voters instead of likely voters. WTF?

 
LOL. Dems have no chance in NC and NV. Probably not going to be a late decision (4-6 points). As for Fetterman, who is leading by 1-2 points in the latest polls, I don’t think any respectable political observer thinks his lead is going to hold come Election Day (assuming he has a lead to begin with). When was the last time a Dem performed better than their polls?

 
mchammer said:
LOL. Dems have no chance in NC and NV. Probably not going to be a late decision (4-6 points). As for Fetterman, who is leading by 1-2 points in the latest polls, I don’t think any respectable political observer thinks his lead is going to hold come Election Day (assuming he has a lead to begin with). When was the last time a Dem performed better than their polls?

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Alternatively, dems are laying down the foundation that the election was stolen since results were strongly against sentiment and polling. They will use this strategy to deflect criticism.
 
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