2022 House and Senate election

Trafalgar now has AZ senate +1 for dems.

go see the headlines at real clear politics website, the panic is now palpable on the Dem side. Dems are going down with the titanic (abortion, crime, inflation, border, work policies).
 
I think it's going to end in 50-50 again, with NV and PA swapping parties. Arizona seems like a done deal from those in the state, especially the ones who were fed up with the Maricopa County efforts. Trafalgar's social desirability bias was overweighted in AZ in 2020.
 
Horns11 said:
I think it's going to end in 50-50 again, with NV and PA swapping parties. Arizona seems like a done deal from those in the state, especially the ones who were fed up with the Maricopa County efforts. Trafalgar's social desirability bias was overweighted in AZ in 2020.
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Interesting that it is Wisc that is first to file against this crap student loan handout
"The Supreme Court has been asked to block President Joe Biden's massive student loan forgiveness plan before it is officially rolled out.

The Brown County Taxpayers Association (BCTA) and the Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty (WILL) sent their request to Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who handles such matters on behalf of the court for that region, asking them to put a hold on the relief plan before requests are processed this Sunday.

In filing for an emergency injunction they claim the move from the Biden administration is unconstitutional, oversteps its executive powers and targets American taxpayers. "
Supreme Court asked to BLOCK Biden's student loan relief | Daily Mail Online
 
Horns11 said:
I think it's going to end in 50-50 again, with NV and PA swapping parties. Arizona seems like a done deal from those in the state, especially the ones who were fed up with the Maricopa County efforts. Trafalgar's social desirability bias was overweighted in AZ in 2020.
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NV's the done deal, don't think so about AZ, GA, or PA. Two crappy 2 year Democrat incumbants running in states where Depends is 20 points undewater, plus a brain dead carrot running in PA on the Democrat side. Will be hard for the Democrats to sweep those three to have 50 D's.

It hardly matters for the next two years - the Democrats will get as much of what they want with a 51-49 GOP lead as they would with it 50-50. If McConnel doesn't have judges to confirm he's a worthless as a rubber with a hole in it. Plus there's always 3-5 Republicans to provide the needed majority on votes, between Collins, Little Lisa, Mittens, Graham, Cornyn, the one from W VA, the one from NC who's not retiring, etc.

Only difference would be for having more R's in place for 24, when it might matter with a GOP House and White House. Till then, the GOP House as of Jan 23 will stop most of the rubbish, but not all of course.
 
Sure hope the GOP is doubling down on the "Get-out-the-vote" campaign. The number one issue is still going to be inflation - a pocketbook issue that everyone feels personally. Even the Dems feel the inflationary pinch - hope a significant number of Dem voters decide to say "Enough!" The country really needs for the GOP to take over Congress and put the kibosh on the Biden agenda.
 
HHD
I can tell you from my limited experience volunteering with the GOP to GOTV there has been block walking every week all over the country encouraging Republicans to get out and vote. It wasn't fun in the heat of July and Aug but it does seem the people are energized and more knowledgeable than ever before on the issues.
Now the GOP needs eyes at every polling place.
 
BrntOrngStmpeDe said:
funny thing is. She's right. Having children that you are not prepared for and can't afford to take care of is a significant element of the poverty cycle. But guess what....the answer is to choose pregnancy protection, choose marriage, choose education, etc. There are CHOICES.
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It has always pissed me off when people treat pregnancy as though it's something that passively happens to people out of nowhere. Are we really this dumb?
 
Mr. Deez said:
It has always pissed me off when people treat pregnancy as though it's something that passively happens to people out of nowhere. Are we really this dumb?
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Progressive ideology ignores on purpose. It simply isn't part of the equation for them. The only consideration is that a person is suffering hard ship. That position is actually glorified to saint like status. All of society must be reengineered to help the victim.
 
At this trend, in 2.5 weeks the GOP will be ahead 3-4 points in Senate polls of PA, GA, AZ.

I think NV is in the bag and FL, IA, OH, WI, and NC are very safe at this point.

NH, CO, and WA may become the new tossup states.
 
Monahorns said:
Progressive ideology ignores on purpose. It simply isn't part of the equation for them. The only consideration is that a person is suffering hard ship. That position is actually glorified to saint like status. All of society must be reengineered to help the victim.
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Yep. They do it with everything. You're not allowed to examine the life choices that create or promote a bad situation. If a woman gets pregnant out of wedlock, it's considered far too "judgy" to say, "maybe hooking up with some dude you don't know wasn't a good idea."

If a guy is homeless, you have to assume that the problem is housing costs rather than the fact that the guy abandoned education and work for drug use.

If a guy gets HIV/AIDS after spending months cruising bathhouses and screwing around with dozens or hundreds of different guys, you have to ignore what he did to get it. Can't say it's a dangerous lifestyle. We saw it again during the monkeypox outbreak.
 
Gov races in MI and MN are within MOE of the polling now. Only a single poll (out of 8-10) shows Dem leading NV senate. This one is over.
 
mchammer said:
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While I agree with the sentiment, I'm not sure the GOP has much credibility on fiscal discipline. Energy policy would be the one area that the GOP would clearly be better in combating inflation. Unfortunately it is mostly influenced by the executive branch.
 
BrntOrngStmpeDe said:
funny thing is. She's right. Having children that you are not prepared for and can't afford to take care of is a significant element of the poverty cycle. But guess what....the answer is to choose pregnancy protection, choose marriage, choose education, etc. There are CHOICES.
Click to expand...
And it is a CHOICE that they wait until AFTER becoming pregnant to find Planned Parenthood...never mind that the same location was there BEFORE they got pregnant.
 
mchammer said:
At this trend, in 2.5 weeks the GOP will be ahead 3-4 points in Senate polls of PA, GA, AZ.

I think NV is in the bag and FL, IA, OH, WI, and NC are very safe at this point.

NH, CO, and WA may become the new tossup states.
Click to expand...
Glad to say I may be eating a little crow after this is all said and done. I really thought the RvW decision and subsequent trigger laws were going to sink us this cycle.
 
Tiffany Smiley is running against the incumbent Dem in Washington for the Senate. Reports say this is rapidly becoming a tossup - Tiffany has gained a lot of ground. It's hard to believe that voters in WA are actually getting sick and tired of the fiasco created by the Dems - maybe there's hope. It would be a very nice win for the GOP if Tiffany can pull this one off.
 
HornHuskerDad said:
Tiffany Smiley is running against the incumbent Dem in Washington for the Senate. Reports say this is rapidly becoming a tossup - Tiffany has gained a lot of ground. It's hard to believe that voters in WA are actually getting sick and tired of the fiasco created by the Dems - maybe there's hope. It would be a very nice win for the GOP if Tiffany can pull this one off.
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I'll put money on Murray and give Smiley a +4% in the spread. While the people hoping to oust Murray are very vocal and pointing out some things that need to change, the establishment there isn't having it. And while it's true that Smiley gained ground, it was a pretty vast separation that she dug into. Kind of like when Beto cut into Ted's lead a few years ago. My guess is that the new Trafalgar will show Murray with +2 in the coming days.
 
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