2020 Senate & House

AOC is now part of Biden campaign, working on the green economy. Will be a big loser.
 
I wonder how long it will be until we hear about Creepy Joe copping a feel on AOC, her resigning, and it being the end of his campaign.

I'd bet something like this happens, just coincidentally, right before the D convention.
 
Joe Fan said:
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A flip is a flip is a flip, but I'd barely call the CA-25 a Democratic stronghold. It was Buck McKeon's seat for like 20 years, and he was about as far right as they come with regards to the Armed Forces and civil liberties and what-not. The 25th had kind of an anti-Trump movement in 2016, but still reelected Steve Knight. I think the Katie Hill one-off was out of frustration over Trump moreso than her beguiling, naked hair brushing ways. Plus, Garcia is a really good dude. A lot of people compare him to Dan Crenshaw, but without the obvious "buy my book" schtick and blatant gerrymandering.
 
Horns11 said:
A flip is a flip is a flip, but I'd barely call the CA-25 a Democratic stronghold. It was Buck McKeon's seat for like 20 years, and he was about as far right as they come with regards to the Armed Forces and civil liberties and what-not. The 25th had kind of an anti-Trump movement in 2016, but still reelected Steve Knight. I think the Katie Hill one-off was out of frustration over Trump moreso than her beguiling, naked hair brushing ways. Plus, Garcia is a really good dude. A lot of people compare him to Dan Crenshaw, but without the obvious "buy my book" schtick and blatant gerrymandering.
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Since 2016, Hillary carried it by 7 and Hill by 9. That is a flip which is more relevant to 2020 than whatever Reagan, Goldwater and Eisenhower did. On top of that, Obama endorsed one candidate and Trump the other. Plus Smith, like Zunker in Wisc, was touted as a bellcow of the coming 'blue wave.'
 
Joe Fan said:
Since 2016, Hillary carried it by 7 and Hill by 9. That is a flip which is more relevant to 2020 than whatever Reagan, Goldwater and Eisenhower did. On top of that, Obama endorsed one candidate and Trump the other. Plus Smith, like Zunker in Wisc, was touted as a bellcow of the coming 'blue wave.'
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And I said when Hillary carried it (and Harris got an even much higher percent for Senate there), Steve Knight still won that 2016 election handily. It wasn't a "local level" blue wave until 2018. In fact, for the 2018 primaries, he still outpolled EVERY Democrat, but then the left turned Katie Hill into a cause celebre between the Spring and Fall and we saw what happened with that. I think Garcia's election is kind of a "things are back to normal" for the CA-25, not an indication that Democrats are losing the majority in 2020.

If you gave the GOP every single House election within the margin of error right now, like the 2010 Tea Party wave or the 1994 flip, Democrats still hold the majority. It would be slim, but it would still exist.
 
Horns11 said:
A... I think Garcia's election is kind of a "things are back to normal" for the CA-25, not an indication that Democrats are losing the majority in 2020.....
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I still think you are missing (or ignoring) the Trump part of what happened with both these specials
 
CA25 is definitely not a Democratic stronghold. Like a lot of suburban districts, it used to be a Republican stronghold that gradually became more favorable to Democrats as its Hispanic population grew and as the GOP hemorrhaged suburban educated voters. It's basically an even district now. It's similar to the suburban Dallas and Houston districts that flipped in 2018 but even closer. If the GOP has a strong candidate and isn't in a Blue wave election, they can win. In a Red wave, they can win decisively.
 
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