2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

relying on media polls =
ElgsBTBXgAAdVNU
 
Joe Fan said:
Disagree on Florida
I am concerned the outbreak in Wisc may hurt R turnout day of election voting. We will see
NV and AZ are going to be close, but Trump has a shot
I think he should spend his final days on Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania
Click to expand...

I think we win Florida, maybe by 4. I'm just posting existing data
 
Joe Fan said:
Arizona
The original Dem VBM lead has been cut in half over the last 3-4 days
Click to expand...


Another factor in AZ is that weed is on the ballot
This is one place the youth vote will actually be up
The libertarian will pull some votes (Jo Jorgensen)
But today Trump turned Maricopa County, so he has a good shot

(you might recall media originally told us AZ was Biden+10, lol)
 
Joe Fan said:
Florida
The Dem Vote By Mail lead began as Ds +632,615
Early In Person Voting now has Rs +439,750
632,615 - 439,750 = Ds +192,865
Biden needs a bigger margin than that going into election day
Click to expand...

Now Rs +451,715 early in person
Overall Dem lead down to +183,218
 
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This tweeter got **** on by commenters but Trump is winning or within MOE (3.5%) for all the red states.

 
By Election Day, a 3% shift to Trump in votes from the polls will give Trump the win.
 
I can see a 2% improvement in Trump in 2020 vs 2016. If so, Trump would likely win NV-NH-MN and tie the populate vote. That would be 33 states.
 
Joe Fan said:
North Carolina update
The Dem EV lead fell last night to ~285k (In 2016, their EV lead was ~310k going in, when Hillary lost by 3 points)
The current estimate for their 2020 EV lead going into election day is now ~230k
If this holds, Rs project to win NC by 4 points
Also, the key black vote demographic is currently below 20% (now at just 19.78%)
Biden will need more than that to win NC
Click to expand...

The EV in North Carolina in 2016 was 70% white
So far in 2020, it is 73% white
In addition, among white voters there, the non-college-educated whites represent 44.5% of the vote (they were only 30% in 2016)
Translation, the Trump base is motivated and voting

A similar pattern can be seen in both Florida and Nevada
 
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Who said a positive shift in 70% of the population is better than a negative shift in 15% of the population (i.e., loony woman segment)? Who??!
 
Does anyone understand how a populist politician gets elected? Anyone? Bueller?
 
In the 2018 midterms, in North Carolina and Florida, 17% of voters were "non-affiliated."
Trump's rally's have been getting ~31% “not Rs.”
Conclusion, he is pulling in independents
 
Okay I checked the modeled EV results by party from the target smart website. In ALL battleground states, the pattern is the same: 3 weeks out Dems expand to a lead (of varying size); 2 weeks out, Dem and Rep vote at similar levels; 1 week out, Rep close gap with Dem or pulls ahead.

Regardless of absolute accuracy of the target smart model, the trends are likely correct. The Dems are running out of voters. If GOP wins Election Day, they win the race.
 
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Yes there will be a certain type of GOP voters crossing over to Biden. This is why the black and Hispanic vote is important for Trump (to offset the loss).
 
Nevada
It looks like the Dem EV lead is down to ~60.5k
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9054

The Trump people say their internals show their #s are up since 2016 with blacks, Hispanics and Mormons (even though they may not have necessarily changed their registration). In 2016, "other" got 28k+ (which were probably mostly Mormons voting for McMullen). Also Gary Johnson got 37k+. In addition, the casino industry in Clark County is now less 6,000 service workers (who were mostly Ds). Lastly, they also have some type of weed vote going on which nobody knows the effect of.

Trump lost 2016 by 27k. In 2020, he is getting a real surge from rural voters in Nevada.
Conclusion - Trump has a better shot this time

This was 2016. Clark County the big one
ElgwE-GX0AIVa6w
 
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No guarantee that the Vegas vote goes to Biden. Dems assuming same support within Dem party despite lockdown Biden for president. If 5% of Vegas shift their vote to Trump, he wins.
 
Nv is an example of Libertarians throwing their vote away.
If even most of the 37k who voted for Johnson had voted for Trump??
This time is just as stark a contrast to how America is viewed
Trump's view? Or Biden 's?
 
@Mr. Deez Polls are tightening. Note some outfits stopped polling one week out from election, giving them plausible deniability.

 
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