2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

Arizona

If you looked at the posts above about North Carolina, Colorado and Virginia, you saw early voting statistics showing that early turnout is whiter, older, and less college educated than in 2016. Which is not reflected in the polls the media likes to tout.

Unfortunately not all states give us these same details, but Arizona does and it is following the same trajectory

2016 CNN exit polling in Arizona showed:
75% white electorate
35% were whites w/o a college degree
40% were white with a college degree​

2020 Arizona (from TargetSmart)
81% white early vote electorate (so far)
52% are whites w/o a college degree
28% are whites with a college degree​

The increases of this group in 2020 over 2016 in AZ is the same pattern as is happening now in North Carolina, Virg and Colorado (as shown above).
This is Trump's base turning out
And it is not how the media polls were modeled
This will be a story in the post-election analysis, but the national media has not yet figured it out.
 
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Joe Fan said:
Now Rs +451,715 early in person
Overall Dem lead down to +183,218
Click to expand...

Florida in person early voting now Rs +474,738
The total EV math:
Vote By Mail - In Person Early Vote = D+161,356
Trump now 47,000 ahead of his 2016 pace

Palm Beach Rs +3k
Ds now -19 off their 2016 pace in Palm Beach

Miami Dade Rs +7k
Ds now -30 off 2016

Pretty remarkable
 
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Joe Fan said:
Arizona
If you looked at the posts above about North Carolina, Colorado and Virginia, you saw early voting statistics showing that early turnout is whiter, older, and less college educated than in 2016. Which is not reflected in the polls the media likes to tout.
Unfortunately not all states give us these same details, but Arizona does and it is following the same trajectory
2016 CNN exit polling in Arizona showed:
75% white electorate
35% were whites w/o a college degree
40% were white with a college degree​
2020 Arizona (from TargetSmart)
81% white early vote electorate (so far)
52% are whites w/o a college degree
28% are whites with a college degree​
The increases of this group in 2020 over 2016 in AZ is the same pattern as is happening now in North Carolina, Virg and Colorado (as shown above).
This is Trump's base turning out
And it is not how the media polls were modeled
This will be a story in the post-election analysis, but the national media has not yet figured it out.
Click to expand...

Every time I start playing around with one of those electoral maps, I keep coming back to Arizona
It's more important than I thought a month ago. Not just for Trump but for the Senate. My sense is that McSally wont pull quite the same numbers as Trump, so he will have to win by enough to drag her over the line with him

So here is another interesting tidbit about what is happening there
The "youth vote" -- defined as 18-24
They came out in AZ in the last midterm at 40%
However, this time they are down to 31%

Just another trend in the right direction for Trump
 
mchammer said:
Trump +3 in latest FL poll of Trafalger. Trump is down 2 in NV.
Click to expand...

The EV Dem lead in Nevada is down to 45k
But that is with ~55% already voted.

It's going to be close and may come down to "crossovers"
Most models assume voters largely stick with their party of registration (90%+) and then split independents 50/50%. But Trump's rallies have been pulling a high number of registered Dems and indies. So I think if he could get maybe 15% Dem crossovers and then pull 60% of the indies, it can be done
We will see
 
Joe Fan said:
North Carolina update
The Dem EV lead fell last night to ~285k (In 2016, their EV lead was ~310k going in, when Hillary lost by 3 points). The current estimate for their 2020 EV lead going into election day is now ~230k. If this holds, Rs project to win NC by 4 points. Also, the key black vote demographic is currently below 20% (now at just 19.78%)
Biden will need more than that to win NC
Click to expand...

North Carolina
The black vote share has dropped to 19.55%
And has now dropped 5 straight days
On top of that, Trump is going to receive some of that - maybe 15%?
In 2016, the share of the black vote in NC was 21%

Overall in NC
Dems now lead the EV +270k
In 2016, it was Ds +310k going in, and Hillary lost by 3

The Registration Gap in North Carolina
2016: registered Dems outnumbered Republicans by 646,246
Trump won by 173,315 votes.

2020: registered Dems outnumber Republicans by 398,953
Thus Rs have narrowed the registration gap by 247,293 and so Trump is starting from a better spot than he did in 2016
 
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New Mexico is showing the same trend as the other states that release this data

2016
Non-college whites: 21%
College-educated whites: 29% ​

2020 NM early vote
Non-college whites: 41.5% of all early voters
College-educated whites: 24.9%​
 
Joe Fan said:
North Carolina
The black vote share has dropped to 19.55%
And has now dropped 5 straight days
On top of that, Trump is going to receive some of that - maybe 15%?
In 2016, the share of the black vote in NC was 21%
Overall in NC
Dems now lead the EV +270k
In 2016, it was Ds +310k going in, and Hillary lost by 3
The Registration Gap in North Carolina
2016: registered Dems outnumbered Republicans by 646,246
Trump won by 173,315 votes.
2020: registered Dems outnumber Republicans by 398,953
Thus Rs have narrowed the registration gap by 247,293 and so Trump is starting from a better spot than he did in 2016
Click to expand...

More North Carolina
NC now has 66% of the vote in (2.7M voters)

Yesterday (Oct 29), Rs (71,537) and "Unaffiliateds" (67,188) both outvoted Dems (56,493) by mail and in-person.
In 8 of the last 9 days, Rs have led daily EV returns in NC
This is the first time in NC history that Rs have led a single day in Early Voting, and they are now at 8

Totals
Rs are up 3
Ds are down 5
net 8 to Trump

Trump won 2016 NC by 170k+ votes
He is going to double that in 2020, maybe win NC by 6 points


EllA7tlX0AALuuz
 
Last edited:
Joe Fan said:
Arizona

If you looked at the posts above about North Carolina, Colorado and Virginia, you saw early voting statistics showing that early turnout is whiter, older, and less college educated than in 2016. Which is not reflected in the polls the media likes to tout.

Unfortunately not all states give us these same details, but Arizona does and it is following the same trajectory

2016 CNN exit polling in Arizona showed:
75% white electorate
35% were whites w/o a college degree
40% were white with a college degree​

2020 Arizona (from TargetSmart)
81% white early vote electorate (so far)
52% are whites w/o a college degree
28% are whites with a college degree​

The increases of this group in 2020 over 2016 in AZ is the same pattern as is happening now in North Carolina, Virg and Colorado (as shown above).
This is Trump's base turning out
And it is not how the media polls were modeled
This will be a story in the post-election analysis, but the national media has not yet figured it out.
Click to expand...
I wonder if the college educated folks are waiting till ED, but not sure if I can make a reason for that (vs other education classes).
 
UTChE96 said:
Biden had the audacity to accuse Trump of deporting Cubans when it was him and Obama that ended the "wet foot, dry foot" policy. He is such a shameless liar. It's sad that he can get away with these regular and shameless lies about his record because the media is complicit.
Click to expand...
It doesn’t matter. Biden going down in flames in FLORIDA
 
mchammer said:
I wonder if the college educated folks are waiting till ED, but not sure if I can make a reason for that (vs other education classes).
Click to expand...

I think Trump has motivated his base better than Biden motivated his
In fact, I cant see how Joe Biden gets anyone excited. About anything
 
Biden is in Midwest today and tomorrow because TX-GA-FL-NC are lost. Apparently OH too. Rumors are that Biden hit the fan yesterday when he heard the blue wall is where he has take his last stand.
 
So in other states when you early vote they can release demographics ?
Why then is it illegal to release similar results in election day?
 
mchammer said:
It doesn’t matter. Biden going down in flames in FLORIDA
Click to expand...

Seems clear as of this moment, Trump wins Texas, FL, GA, Ohio and NC
Which RCP still counts as "toss ups"

If this is true, add Penn and AZ and Trump is over 270
And this is giving Biden Wisc, Mich, MN, Virg, IA, CO and NV

How great is that?
 
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Finally got to see the problems with the alleged 'voter suppression' firsthand yesterday. Went to early vote in Travis County...today would be the last day and, admittedly, I have been in the late afternoon lines on a primary during an election year.

It took forever...I mean, seriously...I think it took me three minutes to park my car, find my voter registration card, get out...oh, crap...forgot my face diaper, and it IS Travis County after all...get out of car, lock car, walk to the front of building...sign said to walk around...so I did.

Old guy at the door opens it, tells me I need ID with me (I had my voter card in hand but they want DL...whatever). Nobody at the plexiglass wall of shame where I had to let them scan my TxDL and grab the finger condom to sign their little iPad. I'm given my big long scan-tron looking sheet and told to go to any booth.

From there...my gawd...which of the eight empty booths should I use.

Got to a booth and fed the card, make the selections, wait for the card to print...and wait some more...and wait a little more. Oh, its done...pull the card and go to the deposit table where another machine scans the card.

Done.

I declined to take the 'I voted' sticker.

It took me longer to get my vehicle inspected about a half-hour later.

I used strategery in my location choice...with the early voting, any place is acceptable. Since Travis County posted the voter totals for each location on a nightly basis, I knew that week Two was optimal. I then found the locations that were consistently drawing less than 250-300 on a weekday. Twelve hours a day, that tells me they probably have a little wait early in the AM or in the last few hours but mid-day was probably light. I was correct. But the media would have you believe that there are just lines upon lines upon lines to vote in Texas...once again, the media lies to the masses and somehow, the masses believe them.
 
Joe Fan said:
I have been hoping Trump would get ~15% of the national black vote
But he might get over 20%

Click to expand...



I think 15 percent would doom them. Plus if the Trump percentage is that high, then the overall turnout is lower for blacks.

double whammy for Slow Joe: he gets less of a smaller group of their core supporters.
 


Look it’s possible the Democrats have a big Election Day turn out, with all their voters who have spent the last 4 years waiting for this day.

But traditional, in swing states they have had a big lead going into Election Day, and that isn’t happening this year, based on ballots returned and early voting so far.

Plus, the Democrats relied even more heavily this year on early voting and via mail, so it’s even worse. Maybe the mail order ballots keep coming in for days after the election to whittle down President Trump’s lead, but by all looks, at best for them he’s going to have a big lead at the end of Election Day, if not an insurmountable one, even with their fraud efforts.
 
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