2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

[Joe Fan]

Arizona update
The Dem lead in EV shrank by another 4,000 this afternoon
Now ~71k total
At this rate, the Dem EV lead could easily be down near D+30k by election day, in a state which usually has a large R in-person voting presence
Still too close to call, but completely within range for an R-win and hold of the Senate seat

One more aspect to Arizona - Republicans requested ~14k more ballots than Democrats in early voting but are returning them slower

 

[Joe Fan]

In one Q, the USA recovered ~2/3 of the GDP lost due to the virus from China

This figure is 2X the previous quarterly record, which was set ~70 years ago

 

[Joe Fan]

Now Rs +407,684

Florida early in person
Thurs am update -- Rs +428,554

Also as of this am
Palm Beach Early Voting -- Rs +2,100
Miami-Dade Early Voting -- Rs +7,000
__________________________________
edit - now Rs +429,181 (growing by the hour)

 

[Joe Fan]

Sports media twitter is coming hard after poor ol Jack Nicklaus today

 

[Joe Fan]

Forty years ago they hated Texans for different reasons. We owned much of it and they didn't like our "style"

But now they like us again

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

Good for Jack.

f the twitterhaters

 

[mchammer]

In one Q, the USA recovered ~2/3 of the GDP lost due to the virus from China

This figure is 2X the previous quarterly record, which was set ~70 years ago

The economy is only down 3-4% from this time last year.

 

[Horn6721]

I will be gobsmacked if they didnt have copies
But wow the DMC is scary And scared

 

[4th_floor]

Watchin Trump in AZ
He just introduced McCarthy who Trump said would be the next House Speaker
Mccarthy said when he took the gavel he would not bang Nancy with it but would gavel in a newer era
NIgel on now

Please don't ever use the phrase "bang Nancy" again. I lost my breakfast.

 

[4th_floor]

That's good. Nobody would ever want to touch that gavel again.

I wouldn't do Pelosi with your gavel.

 

[Joe Fan]

The Dem EV lead in NC is falling The current lead is 9k less than Hillary went in with (She lost by 3+ points)
Here is a realtime county-by-county North Carolina - Trump's trend is good there now, ahead of his 2016 pace
North Carolina interactive map

North Carolina update
The Dem EV lead fell last night to ~285k (In 2016, their EV lead was ~310k going in, when Hillary lost by 3 points)
The current estimate for their 2020 EV lead going into election day is now ~230k
If this holds, Rs project to win NC by 4 points

Also, the key black vote demographic is currently below 20% (now at just 19.78%)
Biden will need more than that to win NC

 

[mchammer]

Junk poll but seems accurate here.

 

[mchammer]

Trump retweets this guy:

 

[Joe Fan]

Florida early in person
Thurs am update -- Rs +428,554
__________________________________
edit - now Rs +429,181 (growing by the hour)

Now Rs +430,165
Should have said 'growling by the minute'
_____________
edit -- Now Rs +431,154
And Dem EV lead (in vote by mail + in person) down to D+189,754

__________________
Remember that these are inferences based off voter registration (has nothing to do with polling). If Dems crush it with independents in Florida (which arent reflected), Biden would still have a good chance. But that is a huge IF.

Likewise, another weakness of this type of projection is that they do not include "crossovers." There will be some, but I cant see very many R-to-D crossovers with Trump's super high approval rate among registered Republicans. But, as with all things, we will see

 

[Joe Fan]

Junk poll but seems accurate here.

And that is with rounding (I assume without digging in)

 

[Joe Fan]

North Carolina update....
Also, the key black vote demographic is currently below 20% (now at just 19.78%)
Biden will need more than that to win NC

Not all states provide this same level of EV breakdown as North Carolina
One way to try and project a national trend on black vote is to extrapolate the NC data, which naturally carries a wider MOE. Still, if we do this --

Looks like the black vote will be down ~4% in NC
Of those who do vote, Trump may get 15%
If we assume national black turnout down 5% and that Trump takes another 15% of the turnout, then Dems are set to lose a combined 4-5 million black votes in 2020.
And Joe Biden would only get ~81% of the black turnout (Hillary had ~88% and lost)
IF all of this is true, then Trump could win both EC and PV
But, it's a lot of assumptions

 

[Joe Fan]

Georgia
Much of the media, including Fox even, are relying on media polls to conclude Georgia will go Dem
But check out NBC's numbers which are fairly up to date -- Dems did have the VBM lead, but early in person voting is changing it. Early in person over the last 5 days is Rs+7
As stated in 2016, IMO, linear regression models based on party registration produce more accurate results

Here is the hardlink if that is too blurry Georgia election results 2020: Live results by county
Set the bottom chart to "party registration"

 

[Joe Fan]

More Georgia
The way this state works demographically, Dems need a black turnout of 30%+
In order for Dems to sweep the entire state, black turnout would have to be ~35%
Right now, black turnout in Georgia is just slightly above 27%

There is a rumor there among Dems that Stacey Abrams thinks that if Biden wins now that she will lose in 2022. So she has not gone out of her way to help Joe in 2020

 

[Monahorns]

There is a rumor there among Dems that Stacey Abrams thinks that if Biden wins now that she will lose in 2022. So she has not gone out of her way to help Joe in 2020

But I had to see her unpleasant face on a Youtube ad about 100 times trying to get money for Joe's campaign.

 

[Joe Fan]

 

[Joe Fan]

But I had to see her unpleasant face on a Youtube ad about 100 times trying to get money for Joe's campaign.

OK, that just what my hs friend now in the ATL told me

 

[Horn2RunAgain]

Georgia
Much of the media, including Fox even, are relying on media polls to conclude Georgia will go Dem
But check out NBC's numbers which are fairly up to date -- Dems did have the VBM lead, but early in person voting is changing it. Early in person over the last 5 days is Rs+7
As stated in 2016, IMO, linear regression models based on party registration produce more accurate results

Here is the hardlink if that is too blurry Georgia election results 2020: Live results by county
Set the bottom chart to "party registration"

I've been following that link for over a week now. Just from the data today it looks like...

Biden looks solid in PA, NV
Looks promising in NC, IA, MN

Trump looks solid in TX, MI, GA, OH, WI

Toss up per data in FL

None of this takes into account game day action (voting day historic trends)

Also, it contradicts what polling experts are touting (WI , MI are leaning dem etc)

 

[Joe Fan]

Now Rs +430,165
Should have said 'growling by the minute'
_____________
edit -- Now Rs +431,154
And Dem EV lead (in vote by mail + in person) down to D+189,754
__________________
Remember that these are inferences based off voter registration (has nothing to do with polling). If Dems crush it with independents in Florida (which arent reflected), Biden would still have a good chance. But that is a huge IF.
Likewise, another weakness of this type of projection is that they do not include "crossovers." There will be some, but I cant see very many R-to-D crossovers with Trump's super high approval rate among registered Republicans. But, as with all things, we will see

Florida
The Dem Vote By Mail lead began as Ds +632,615
Early In Person Voting now has Rs +439,750
632,615 - 439,750 = Ds +192,865
Biden needs a bigger margin than that going into election day

 

[Joe Fan]

I've been following that link for over a week now. Just from the data today it looks like...
Biden looks solid in PA, NV
Looks promising in NC, IA, MN
Trump looks solid in TX, MI, GA, OH, WI
Toss up per data in FL
None of this takes into account game day action (voting day historic trends)
Also, it contradicts what polling experts are touting (WI , MI are leaning dem etc)

Disagree on Florida
I am concerned the outbreak in Wisc may hurt R turnout day of election voting. We will see
NV and AZ are going to be close, but Trump has a shot
I think he should spend his final days on Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Disagree on Florida
I am concerned the outbreak in Wisc may hurt R turnout day of election voting. We will see
NV and AZ are going to be close, but Trump has a shot
I think he should spend his final days on Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania

Trump has 3 rallies on Friday in MN, WI, and MI and 3 rallies on Saturday in PA. He is in FL and NC today. Note he is not visiting TX-GA-OH-IA of late.

 

[Joe Fan]

Arizona update
The Dem lead in EV shrank by another 4,000 this afternoon
Now ~71k total
At this rate, the Dem EV lead could easily be down near D+30k by election day, in a state which usually has a large R in-person voting presence
Still too close to call, but completely within range for an R-win and hold of the Senate seat

Arizona
The original Dem VBM lead has been cut in half over the last 3-4 days

 

[Joe Fan]

...Note he is not visiting TX-GA-OH-IA of late.

I think Biden cut his ad buying in those states too
Conclusion?

 

[Horn6721]

Maybe Biden is counting on the Bloomberg multi million $ ad buy
And cheating
Harris is coming Fri

 

[Garmel]

Arizona
The original Dem VBM lead has been cut in half over the last 3-4 days

Is it possible it will be at 2016 levels by the end of early voting you think?