2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

Virginia does not look that great for Trump, needing probably +125,000, but there is a path --
(1) Trump takes 15% of the black vote
(2) Another 5% of the black vote stay home because of the virus (or whatever)
(3) The youth vote (18-24) underperforms by ~30%​


The article is American Spectator on how Trump could pull Virginia

" .... But scratch the surface, and you’ll find a pendulum ready to swing back to Republicans. Democrats took the pronouncements of Virginia’s new blue-state status to heart and immediately set about overreaching, as Democratic majorities are wont to do. Northam, who as a former state senator ran as a centrist gubernatorial candidate, proved unable to moderate his party’s leftward lurch due to his near career-ending “blackface” scandal. Democrats reversed decades of state policy on abortion, the Second Amendment, decriminalizing marijuana possession, providing benefits for undocumented immigrants, allowing local government collective bargaining, and increasing and creating numerous new taxes for businesses and consumers.

The building reaction to this Democratic overreach has provided opportunities for Republicans to energize their base. In particular, the Left’s actions around public safety and education are creating additional opportunities to convert Virginia’s suburban voters.

As an example of expanding the GOP base, media estimated over 25,000 gun rights activists attended a peaceful rally in Richmond in late January to demonstrate support for the Second Amendment. Organizers found that a significant percent of attendees had never registered to vote due to their concern about being tagged in a government database. That has now changed, with lines at Republican-sponsored voter registration booths at every gun show in the state. Likewise, pro-life conservatives are reaching out and registering voters after Catholic Masses across the suburbs...."​

Why Trump Could Win Virginia | The American Spectator | USA News and PoliticsThe American Spectator | USA News and Politics
 
Horn6721 said:
Bobulinski is really pissed at the Biden family. He is providing facts and proof
He tried to get the Bidens to get Schiff to retract calling Tony under Russian influence.
That seems all he wanted. Was to not be called a traitor by Schiff.
Click to expand...

lol

ElYV26dWkAI_5R7
 
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Horn6721 said:
Bobulinski is really pissed at the Biden family. He is providing facts and proof
He tried to get the Bidens to get Schiff to retract calling Tony under Russian influence.
That seems all he wanted. Was to not be called a traitor by Schiff.
Click to expand...

If bobulinski was lying , gillyar and Rob Walker would have been howling by now. Paid or not to do so, they'd be on 60 minutes last weekend saying Tony was FOS.. . They have a lot to lose here, staying silent is a response in itself.

Joe Biden is guilty as hell but the MSM is burying it.
 
Yeah it’s going to take the entire brain trust behind closed doors to develop a response, or create some monster diversion. Sure would live to hear the discussions inside that scramble.
 
mchammer said:
Wash Post poll has Biden up 17 pts in WI. Can’t wait till Tuesday.
Click to expand...

That's obvious ********. So WI will be more decisive for Biden than Rhode Island and New Jersey were for Clinton? No sane person buys that. I almost wonder if polls like that are put out on purpose to skew the Real Clear Politics average.
 
Yeah that’s a push poll without doubt.

I think the reason why polling has been so bad for many major elections the past 4 years is the polling companies, like the media /political consultant bubble they work in, doesn’t like the working class, doesn’t know anyone from it, and makes no attempt to understand that group of voters.

Look at some of the major elections that have occurred in the western world – Brexit, USA Presidential Election, Australia and UK elections in 2019. The polls in all those races predicted wins for leftists or a close tie for the UK race. They were terribly wrong in all cases. Brexit passed, Trump was elected, and the right wing parties won big in Aus and the UK.

Part of the incorrect polling is that it’s fixed – the polling companies get the answers their clients (often media outfits) want, and the answers that the social class they’re in want as well. As well as they hope it depresses voting on the other side.

But I think a lot of it that their polling models and assumption are not looking for working class voters, anymore than political consultants run effective campaigns to try to get those votes. Hard to either poll, or make campaigns for, a group of people you don’t know, and don’t like.

So the polls are focused on the same thing the consultants are – people from their same social class. So soccer moms / now suburban woman, college grads, white collar types in big cities, etc.

When the working class doesn’t really care about the election, and sits at home, the polls aren’t horribly bad. They’re still often not right – look at various races for Senate and Governor in 18 that the polls missed (example – all polls except a few small ones said Gillum was going to be next Governor of FLA not DeSatnis), but they can get the overall outcome right. The Democrats won the House in 18, and the first UK election after Brexit was a tie.

But when the working class does care, and has a candidate or issue that fires them up, they turn out. Brexit and leaving the EU fired them up. Trump did, and still does. In the Aus and UK elections in 19, the working class made the switch from left wing parties to right wing parties, after years of being ignored by the left, and turned out strong. And the polls, geared towards what some 43 year old in the suburbs with her Twitter account and Facebook page, never picks that working class support.

I think you’ll see that in this election. The polls are not picking the huge support President Trump is getting from the working class. The factual indicators – the question “are you better off”, rally turnout for Trump and even Trump family members is huge – Biden can’t get more than a dozen people to show up. His surrogates get even less. Partisan registration changes in swing states, early vote totals. All point towards a larger win by Trump than when he won last time.

And then you get 17 point gap polls, so a swing of 18 points since 4 years ago. I know it’s fixed, and as stated, done to drive the poll of poll average. But a lot of it is just that polls are not picking up working class support. Hard to poll people you hate.
 
First group are done deals.

az and nv are tossups.

fla is done. Don’t know why NC would go leftist this time. Went R even in 2012.

pa wi mi and MN are tossups. Trump need Pa or a couple of the others.
 
An explanation of the modeling for drawing conclusions off voter registration, mild math (linear regression) if anyone is curious
Cued to discussion of PA (earlier part is AZ)
 
Updated FL early in person voting -- Now Rs +382,207
Taking the Dem EV lead down to 232,903
Dems went into 2016 election day with an 88,000 lead. Trump won FL by 113,000
Trump Team wants it at 144k going into 2020 election day. The simple math (see video^) suggests he will get there easily and win FL again.

 
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While more republicans may vote early this time, the general thinking is that an even higher percentage of Democrats will. So if the early vote is not a big net gain for them compared to 16, then Election Day voting will blow them out.
 
Colorado
Rs were trailing the EV by 30% 2 weeks ago
Yesterday was down to 10%
Today 9%
This is better than expected and the deadline for mail-ins passed Monday, so the numbers for Rs could pick up more now
Lockdown have been very unpopular there
So maybe Gardner has a chance?
 


So this poll had President Trump with 19% black support. Traditionally it’s been about 12 for a Republican in a presidential election. I would think that’s a death toll for Slow Joe.

To expand on that, there is no way Trump gets 19 percent of black voters in a poll and isn’t ahead. So as I noted above, since he’s not ahead in that poll it shows rural working class voters are not being accurately polled.
 
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Joe Fan said:
Colorado
Rs were trailing the EV by 30% 2 weeks ago
Yesterday was down to 10%
Today 9%
This is better than expected and the deadline for mail-ins passed Monday, so the numbers for Rs could pick up more now
Lockdown have been very unpopular there
So maybe Gardner has a chance?
Click to expand...
I think CO is all vote by mail fraud. So whatever number of votes needed will be found or created.
 
Joe Fan said:
Now for some North Carolina
Trump won 2016 NC by 173k+ votes
In 2016, Dems led by 243k (+11.6%) -
In 2020, Dems lead by 175k (+5.6%) - with 50% more votes cast
In terms of ballots cast in NC in 2020
Ds are -4%
Rs are +2%
Rs have registered 250k more new voters than the Ds for this election
To win, just using straight math, Trump would need 60% of the remaining votes to win NC.
However, remember that Rs have 250k more voters, which means the actual number Trumps needs is ~54% of the rest
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The Dem EV lead in NC is falling to NC. The current lead is 9k less than Hillary went in with (She lost by 3+ points)

Here is a realtime county-by-county North Carolina - Trump's trend is good there now, ahead of his 2016 pace

North Carolina interactive map
 
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