2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

Now for some Nevada

Trump lost 2016 NV by ~27k votes
In 2016, Dems led by 56k (+11%)
In 2020, Dems lead by 22k (+3%), this with 46% more ballots cast.

In terms of ballots cast in NV in 2020
Ds are -4%
Rs +4%

Conclusion, Dems Early Voting in Nevada is not anywhere near where they wanted it to be
 
Last edited:
Now for some Iowa

Trump won Iowa in 2016 by 147k+ votes
2016 - Ds led by 59k (+13.1%)
2020 - Ds lead by 62k (+8.3%) - with 65% more ballots cast.

In terms of ballots cast in IA in 2020
Ds are -4.5%
Rs +0.3%
Unaffiliated +4.2%
The only conclusion here is that unaffiliateds left the Dem Party

I think pollsters normally assume unaffiliateds break somewhere near 50/50.
However, that will clearly not be the case in Iowa in 2020!


ElWkUVVWkAI8qu1
 
Last edited:
Joe Fan said:
Now for some Nevada

Trump lost 2016 NV by ~27k votes
In 2016, Dems led by 56k (+11%)
In 2020, Dems lead by 22k (+3%), this with 46% more ballots cast.

In terms of ballots cast in NV in 2020
Ds are -4%
Rs +4%

Conclusion, Dems Early Voting in Nevada is not anywhere near where they wanted it to be
Click to expand...
I said long time that Nevada is a cinch for Trump. There are two states with the lowest levels of college educated voters that Trump lost: NV and NM. Plus, Vegas is shutdown which is the base for the culinary union. Wouldn’t surprise me for Trump to win NV but lose AZ.
 
The Dem counter argument is that they will win crossovers and independents. I thinks Dems lost independents margin after hunter laptop. As for crossovers, they are only seeing suburb women gain and ignoring minority men loss.
 
Joe Fan said:
...With each hour of Early In Person Voting, the early Dem lead in FL is collapsing (as I have been showing above). At this rate, it will be well under 200,000 by election day. Which means Trump will crush them in Florida
Click to expand...

Winning Miami-Dade would be sort of like Trump winning Seattle or some other place full of nuts

And if he wins Florida, he will probably win PA and Mich too

 
Last edited:
Joe Fan said:
...And if he wins Florida, he will probably win PA and Mich too
Click to expand...

This is because, at least in terms of recent history, every time Florida leans right, so do Penn and Mich. There has been no exception to this rule going all the way back to 1968. Furthermore, if Trump wins FL by more than 1.2 pts, he will also increase his margins in PA and MI

ElEExqxX0AAXVPr
 
Last edited:
Now for Louisiana
Trump won Louisiana by 20 in 2016. This time he is up 23

Trump 59%
Biden 36%
10/22-10/22 by University of New Orleans (B/C) - 755 LV
 
Last edited:
Joe Fan said:
Now for Louisiana
Trump won Louisiana by 20 in 2016. This time he is up 23

Trump 59%
Biden 36%
10/22-10/22 by University of New Orleans (B/C) - 755 LV
Click to expand...
Twitter is now heavily Trump. They have come out in force (like the ballot box). Every time some Lib loon says Biden and blue wave over GA and TX (or other BS), it’s an avalanche of Trump retorts.
 
Last edited:
Now for some North Carolina
Trump won 2016 NC by 173k+ votes

In 2016, Dems led by 243k (+11.6%) -
In 2020, Dems lead by 175k (+5.6%) - with 50% more votes cast

In terms of ballots cast in NC in 2020
Ds are -4%
Rs are +2%

Rs have registered 250k more new voters than the Ds for this election

To win, just using straight math, Trump would need 60% of the remaining votes to win NC.
However, remember that Rs have 250k more voters, which means the actual number Trumps needs is ~54% of the rest
 
Last edited:


The responses there are epic. And lord have mercy, besides the photo ops virtue signaling, is there any reason to have 6 foot crop circles around the chairs? Do all the people there have 6 foot long poles on their chests to keep that far away while walking around?

PS - this is where the last president who died from old age kicked the bucket (FDR). A fitting tie in with Slow Joe who would be older at inauguration than Reagan was when he left office. Sad.
 
Last edited:
Now even Muslims are breaking for Trump (that has got to seriously hurt all the race peddlers)

"President Trump, whose Middle East plan is winning support from Arab nations, is gaining strong support from Muslim leaders and their followers who believe that the Democrats haven't delivered on years of promises, according to a new survey of Islamic leaders.

In a shocking turnaround, 61.48% of the 109 Muslim leaders who “represent two million voters” plan to vote for Trump. That is a slight edge over their 2012 vote for Barack Obama...."​

‘Trump does what he says’: Muslims abandon Biden, back president
 
Last edited:


Now in the lead in returned ballots in Michigan.

Now look with all the focus this year on avoiding the Wuhan, and lots more people are voting early, maybe a lot of those who would have voted Republican on Election Day are doing it now and so there won’t be the big Election Day spike in R votes.

Still, the traditional pattern is early D leads, made up on Election Day by the R’s, who need to win by enough that day to overcome the fraud that shifts every close election to the Democrats. Being close or even worse, behind during early voting is a nightmare for the leftists, who now need a much stronger than usual turnout on Election Day.
 
Last edited:


The locals are hostile! Step on it back to the basement!

This is the first time in my life I’ve seen everyday Republicans take such an active role in an election. Usually it’s the leftists who have their street theatre and Republicans would never picket an appearance by the Democrats.

And yet Nate says Georgia is going leftist?
 
I am only laughing because that has to be poetic justice for all the hating screamers who attack elderly and kids wearing Trump gear.
I wonder if there were any Biden supporters on the street?
 
Anyone have that post from Nate Sliver where he had Texas FLA Georgia NC and others all doing to Slow Joe? That one needs to be saved away for the next time he’s lying in public.
 
I attended a rally here in Dallas and we had 20,000 in good weather. These level of enthusiasm in horrid weather is amazing.
Optimism is an amazing feeling.
I did laugh when he said our nuclear program is at the tippy top.
IF this is a fair election Trump will win easily.
BUT we all know it won't be fair.
What we see happening in Texas is happening all over the country.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Weekly Prediction Contest

* Predict HORNS-AGGIES *
Sat, Nov 30 • 6:30 PM on ABC

Recent Threads

Prediction Results Threads

2024 Schedules

Back
Top