2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

This is "ballots returned" for Michigan
Rs lead

7unOnpjx


Republicans Now Lead in Michigan in Number of Ballots Returned!
 
In North Carolina, it is currently Ds +357,533

But .... Black turnout is ~20%
Obama won NC by less than 1-point in 2008 with a black turnout of ~23%
Obama 49.70%
McCain 49.38%​

So it looks like black turnout will be down some in 2020 compared to 2008
Add to that Trump getting maybe 12-15% of black voters there, and the Dem black turnout looks more like ~17%
That is not going to be enough for them to win there
 
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WillUSAF said:
WOW i didn't realize it was that large. Well for what its worth the people I have talked to (wifes family and friends) and from what I have heard Trump has Eastern PA and I'm putting $$ on Central PA
Click to expand...

Some more on Philly
The NYT (of all people) says Trump is carrying ~24% of that city
If true (admitting the NYT gets this stuff wrong, a lot) and Trump does carry 24%+ of Philly voters, then he wins PA hands down (barring massive fraud)

ElRtGpKXIAA8MB4

The Election May Hinge on Pennsylvania. Can the Polls Get the State Right?
 
Joe Fan said:
Update on the FL early in person voting
Now Rs +330,606

This has cut the D overall lead now to 284,384.
They are on pace for a FL turnout of just over 75%. They are supposed to need 84%+ turnout to be competitive.

Here some of the counties for early in person vis-à-vis 2016
Osceola County: D+10 points
2016: D+26

Palm Beach Co. R+.1%
2016: Hills +19%

Alachua Co. D+22 points
2016: D+ 27.5

Leon Co. D+23 points
2016: D+27.5 points​
Click to expand...
I’ve seen the Democrats need plus 400k for pre-election day numbers to offset the traditional R advantage on Election Day. Of course, more Republicans could be voting early too and so have less of a pot of Election Day votes to come in.

Outside of the well off harpie and Twatter groups, I don’t see enough dislike of President Trump for this Trump / Not Trump plan to work. If the Democrats had a candidate who could get more than 7 people to show up at an event it would be one thing. Or if Trump was polling 28 percent like Bush was in late 2008 (granted he wasn’t running and in fact had given up being President in about Sep 2005).

But neither of those things are true. So they are left hoping the rest of the country is as filled with hate and rage as their Twatter feeds.
 
Joe Fan said:
In North Carolina, it is currently Ds +357,533

But .... Black turnout is ~20%
Obama won NC by just 1-point in 2012 with a black turnout of ~23%

So it looks like black turnout will be down some in 2020 compared to 2012
Add to that Trump getting maybe 12-15% of black voters there, and the Dem black turnout looks more like ~17%
That is not enough for them to win there
Click to expand...
Obama won NC in 2008, lost in 2012. Do you mean in 2008?
 
John King on CNN saying Trump campaign is one the defensive for campaigning in the Midwest. WTF?
 
It should be pointed out that Trump didn’t need one of FL or NC to win in 2016 due to the PA, MI, and WI wins.
 
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Duck Dodgers said:
I’ve seen the Democrats need plus 400k for pre-election day numbers to offset the traditional R advantage on Election Day. Of course, more Republicans could be voting early too and so have less of a pot of Election Day votes to come in.....
Click to expand...

Here is something on the difference between FL and PA voting

PA has more restrictions/hoops on early/absentee votes than FL
As a result, it will have only about 1/2 the early votes as FL
PA is a vote in person on election day culture (like AZ in this regard, although AZ seems to be changing).
 
Joe Fan said:
In North Carolina, it is currently Ds +357,533
But .... Black turnout is ~20%
Obama won NC by less than 1-point in 2008 with a black turnout of ~23%
Obama 49.70%
McCain 49.38%​
So it looks like black turnout will be down some in 2020 compared to 2012
Add to that Trump getting maybe 12-15% of black voters there, and the Dem black turnout looks more like ~17%
That is not going to be enough for them to win there
Click to expand...

In 2016, Clinton was leading by ~300k going into Election Day
Trump ended up wining by over 3 points

So far with the early 2020 NC vote, the Dems are down ~7% points off their 2016 numbers

Also, some theorize that the media and Dem hysteria of the virus from China is actually going to depress the black turnout in NC. If so, that would be ironic

Here is the latest there
North Carolina Early Voting Statistics
 
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mchammer said:
It should be pointed out that Trump didn’t need one of FL or NC to win in 2016 due to the PA, MI, and WI wins.
Click to expand...

Correct by numbers alone. But if Trump was doing so badly that he didn’t win NC or FLA, no way he was going to win the three Midwest states.

Think of then as apples on a tree, with NC and FLA low, and the others high. If you can’t pick the low ones, you won’t be able to for the upper ones.
 
Joe Fan said:
That rule applies only if you are alive
If not, you can vote as many times as you like
Click to expand...

The political phrase “three legged stool” was coined in the 80’s to describe the joining in the Republican Party of foreign policy hawks, social conservatives, and supply siders on the economy.

Now it refers to the Democrat party’s voter base: felons, illegal aliens, and the dead.
 
The ballot counters in FL figure a 4% pt victory for Trump. Lots of assumptions though.
 
Horn2RunAgain said:
Joe, that link is the same thing I see on the nbc link for the election. It's been showing this for a week, trump looking strong in MI yet RCP has shaded MI blue

If their (nbc) data is correct we're good in MI but hurting badly in PA
Click to expand...

It says its updated thru Oct 27

quote from the NBC page
Last updated Oct. 27. Party registration is modeled by TargetSmart from multiple commercial sources.​
 
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