2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

Those are kids dressed as them

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Within the last two days, blue check mark professional media types on Twitter have sent both of these electoral projection maps out. Both were serious

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Duck Dodgers said:
Bad hair too. Dude should go Kojak and shave it all off.



Nothing like an extra quater million new registrations for your side in a state which was decided by 40k last time.
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Not to be a naysayer, but how could the Dem increase from 10/19 - 10/26 be more than the total Dem increase from Nov. 2016 - 10/26/20?
 
Duck Dodgers said:


Now in the lead in returned ballots in Michigan.

Now look with all the focus this year on avoiding the Wuhan, and lots more people are voting early, maybe a lot of those who would have voted Republican on Election Day are doing it now and so there won’t be the big Election Day spike in R votes.

Still, the traditional pattern is early D leads, made up on Election Day by the R’s, who need to win by enough that day to overcome the fraud that shifts every close election to the Democrats. Being close or even worse, behind during early voting is a nightmare for the leftists, who now need a much stronger than usual turnout on Election Day.
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The trouble is that they have a finite set of people and vans to take people to the polls. Republicans don’t need any help to vote.
 
Joe Fan said:
In Georgia, 65% of votes are supposed to be in
GOP with 52.6%
This means Dems would have to win 57.5% of the expected remaining votes in order to turn GA blue
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Didn't you have a poll that said Georgia is supposed to go red by 60/40 the rest of the way? Georgia is going to be a blowout.
 
I think there is more early voting this time, so there is less of a pot of R voters out there for Election Day. But yeah unlikely to make any R leads on Election Day in those states.

The outlier seems to be AZ where R’s are usually in the lead at the start of election day but the D’s come on strong.
 
Texas early ballots show a 16 pt lead for inferred Republicans with 7 million ballots already cast
In 2016, the total vote in Texas was just under 9 million
Trump is going to win Texas
 
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Ohio early ballots also show a near double-digit lead for Republicans with 2.3 million ballots already cast
In 2016, the total vote in Ohio was just under 5.5 million.
Trump is going to win Ohio.
 
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Nevada early ballots show a Dem lead of 7 pts with 750k ballots already cast. But as noted in a post above, Rs are closing the gap.
In 2016, the total vote in Nevada was just over 1.1 million.

Another thing about Nevada is the so-called Reid Machine, the bulk of which was low-wage service workers. But with the severe effect on Vegas caused by the virus from China, that machine has unraveled.

There is also a SCOTUS case out there. If Trumps wins the case too, flipping Nevada is very possible.
 
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Bobulinski is really pissed at the Biden family. He is providing facts and proof
He tried to get the Bidens to get Schiff to retract calling Tony under Russian influence.
That seems all he wanted. Was to not be called a traitor by Schiff.
 
In Georgia, Dems are running about 7pts behind their Early Vote pace for 2016. Dems lost then by nearly 4 pts.
Trump is going to win Georgia.
 
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Biden and is family are sleazier than I thought
and it is all out there to see
How will the DMC to spin this?
Can this get out to the people?
 
Joe Fan said:
Ohio early ballots also show a near double-digit lead for Republicans with 2.3 million ballots already cast
In 2016, the total vote in Ohio was just under 5.5 million.
Trump is going to win Ohio.
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Is that both early voting and mail in ballots?
 
Horn6721 said:
Biden and is family are sleazier than I thought
and it is all out there to see
How will the DMC to spin this?
Can this get out to the people?
Click to expand...

What we have on the Bidens is easily much more than every one of those anti-Trump conspiracies combined.
 
It looks to me like Trump should focus all or at least most of his time and money in the final week on 4 states -- Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania
 
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Joe Fan said:
It looks to me like Trump should focus all or at least most of his time and money in the final week on 4 states -- Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania
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Supposedly Trump's internal polling shows him up 3 in MI

In Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Arizona, Democrats are falling short of their target of 70% of early votes cast either in-person or by mail. That’s the lead they hoped to build up to stave off an expected higher Republican turnout on Election Day.
* * *

Campaigning in battleground Michigan, which does not track partisan affiliation of early voting, Mr. Trump said he’s pulled ahead by 3 percentage points, apparently referring to internal campaign polling. Mr. Biden leads by an average of 9 points in public polls.​

Democrats falling short in swing states, early voting statistics show
 
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