Way too early republican primary thread
- Thread starter Larry T Spider
- Start date
Larry T Spider
100+ Posts
Polls about a week ago had Trump winning easily in South Carolina. My book had "Trump by more that 10%" as a bet, or you could take the opposite. I think its about to get really close. First, I think Trump will have a problem getting his people to the voting booth. We saw this in Iowa when he was supposed to win easily.
I honestly don't know what I want out of tomorrow. Trump is a self-promoting windbag and Cruz is a bomb thrower that will accomplish nothing. Hell, republicans don't even want to work with the guy. I guess I'll hold out hope that Rubio has a good showing, but the state is partially winner take all meaning that either Trump or Cruz walks away with the lion's share. I'll go ahead and call the Cruz upset now.
I honestly don't know what I want out of tomorrow. Trump is a self-promoting windbag and Cruz is a bomb thrower that will accomplish nothing. Hell, republicans don't even want to work with the guy. I guess I'll hold out hope that Rubio has a good showing, but the state is partially winner take all meaning that either Trump or Cruz walks away with the lion's share. I'll go ahead and call the Cruz upset now.
This just says it all. Both guys at the top of the polls are a train wreck for different reasons.
The town hall format gives the public such a telling glimpse in to the politicians, for better or worse. As someone who did many interviews in my job, it is amazing what you may glean from a person in a short amount of time when they are given the rope, so to speak.
I would like to believe my vote will be based solely on substance, not style, but style does matter, especially in such a devise election where we need a communicator who can potentially heal with not only actions, but words.
To be perfectly clear, I do not mean "I want a president I would like to have a beer with".
I would like a President who can be show a human, compassionate side, a measured tough side, and when appropriate, an inspirational side. (not asking too much, right!?)
In my opinion, no one was more exposed than Cruz or Trump by the town hall.
Cruz, incapable of making small talk, or significantly relating to an audience member. He had so much time to let people get to know him, and he spent most of it in a petty fashion talking about things (Trump, citizenship) the public doesn't seem to care about. Anderson Cooper bent over backwards at the end to humanize the man, and he couldn't even pull off some self-deprecating humor. (couldn't he have given us one little Simpsons impression? Even an "excellent" by Monty Burns would have been awesome). Instead, he spent what seemed like 25 minutes explaining some stupid joke, (that was people laughing AT him, not with him) He seemed totally clueless and out of touch.
Trump. I haven't been interested in him, but I was amazed at his narcissism. I already knew he was a big one, but his total inability to answer JUST ONE question without turning it in to a chest beating, "look how great I/am, my family is" was almost breathtaking. He is as frightening to me as HC or BS.
Kasich. I have been a supporter, and still am, but the man needs to work on his speaking skills. He has a verbal tic, he starts most sentences with "Look,..." and it comes across as a bit rough. He also seems to end most comment with the words, "OK?', and that also comes across as almost challenging. I love "sawmill" style speaking, but he is a bit more edgy than I thought he would be. He also needs to stop working in what happened in his state in every single question. I would love to see a side of him that didn't seem to be just a "roll up his sleeves" kind of man. I would like hear some eloquent or inspiring words to add to his human side. Humility is a wonderful quality, but I would also like to see a bit of polished confidence.
Carson. If I didn't know about his off the wall thoughts and beliefs about pyramids, etc., I would have been quite impressed. I know he catches flak for his calm demeanor, but I find it refreshing that he IS calm and seemingly in control. He actually has some good ideas, and has the elegance that makes people listen. I think he will show better than expected in SC, but he will not be a factor.
Bush. Out of all the candidates, I feel that he has the best balance of thoughts, ideas, proof of concept, and is probably the least partisan of the group. (ex. his thoughts on SCOTUS appointment. Let BO put people forward, let the Senate/House vet and do their job. I do believe Constitutionally that this is how it should play out. Republicans need to do their job, though) However, the man just doesn't have the EQ to relate these to the general public. He is an admitted introvert, and in these times, that doesn't bode well. Add that to the "Bush baggage" and he doesn't have a chance. I found myself liking his answers, but I don't think he will ever be able to overcome his lack of charisma. I found myself feeling sorry for him many times due to his obvious discomfort. I do believe he is a good and decent man.
Rubio. If I could give Kasich, or Bush, his speaking skills, my little world would be perfect!
No doubt in my mind, that in terms of style, he is the strongest of the bunch. I loved his little jokes about his boots--self-deprecating humor is a big winner with me.
He comes across as compassionate, passionate, and has the ability to give the inspirational speeches this country needs so badly. I do worry about his lack of experience, and he is hard core on some issues that Republicans need to say uncle about, if they want to stay relevant. Gay marriage is an example. The world has changed, gay marriage is here, Rs need to get over it and move to truly important issues that will impact generations to come. This is absolutely no fault of Rubios, but IF Hillary evades jail, and is the Dem nominee, giving her a tough debate will be a delicate thing. In general, we don't like seeing men speaking harshly to women. Bernie is getting away with it because he is an old guy, age-wise it seems a fairer fight.
I wonder how it would play out for a young man, like Rubio, to take off the gloves on an older woman in a debate. I fear he would be forced to tread extra lightly, as unfair as that is.
If the Conservative Party has any hope of surviving, it needs to learn which battles to pick, which battles to back away from. Conservatives need young, diverse blood.
I hope there are more of the town hall formats shown on TV. Good questions, no ugly shouting, time to speak, and a good insight in to the men, one of who hopefully be the next president. (except please not Trump)
I would like to believe my vote will be based solely on substance, not style, but style does matter, especially in such a devise election where we need a communicator who can potentially heal with not only actions, but words.
To be perfectly clear, I do not mean "I want a president I would like to have a beer with".
I would like a President who can be show a human, compassionate side, a measured tough side, and when appropriate, an inspirational side. (not asking too much, right!?)
In my opinion, no one was more exposed than Cruz or Trump by the town hall.
Cruz, incapable of making small talk, or significantly relating to an audience member. He had so much time to let people get to know him, and he spent most of it in a petty fashion talking about things (Trump, citizenship) the public doesn't seem to care about. Anderson Cooper bent over backwards at the end to humanize the man, and he couldn't even pull off some self-deprecating humor. (couldn't he have given us one little Simpsons impression? Even an "excellent" by Monty Burns would have been awesome). Instead, he spent what seemed like 25 minutes explaining some stupid joke, (that was people laughing AT him, not with him) He seemed totally clueless and out of touch.
Trump. I haven't been interested in him, but I was amazed at his narcissism. I already knew he was a big one, but his total inability to answer JUST ONE question without turning it in to a chest beating, "look how great I/am, my family is" was almost breathtaking. He is as frightening to me as HC or BS.
Kasich. I have been a supporter, and still am, but the man needs to work on his speaking skills. He has a verbal tic, he starts most sentences with "Look,..." and it comes across as a bit rough. He also seems to end most comment with the words, "OK?', and that also comes across as almost challenging. I love "sawmill" style speaking, but he is a bit more edgy than I thought he would be. He also needs to stop working in what happened in his state in every single question. I would love to see a side of him that didn't seem to be just a "roll up his sleeves" kind of man. I would like hear some eloquent or inspiring words to add to his human side. Humility is a wonderful quality, but I would also like to see a bit of polished confidence.
Carson. If I didn't know about his off the wall thoughts and beliefs about pyramids, etc., I would have been quite impressed. I know he catches flak for his calm demeanor, but I find it refreshing that he IS calm and seemingly in control. He actually has some good ideas, and has the elegance that makes people listen. I think he will show better than expected in SC, but he will not be a factor.
Bush. Out of all the candidates, I feel that he has the best balance of thoughts, ideas, proof of concept, and is probably the least partisan of the group. (ex. his thoughts on SCOTUS appointment. Let BO put people forward, let the Senate/House vet and do their job. I do believe Constitutionally that this is how it should play out. Republicans need to do their job, though) However, the man just doesn't have the EQ to relate these to the general public. He is an admitted introvert, and in these times, that doesn't bode well. Add that to the "Bush baggage" and he doesn't have a chance. I found myself liking his answers, but I don't think he will ever be able to overcome his lack of charisma. I found myself feeling sorry for him many times due to his obvious discomfort. I do believe he is a good and decent man.
Rubio. If I could give Kasich, or Bush, his speaking skills, my little world would be perfect!
No doubt in my mind, that in terms of style, he is the strongest of the bunch. I loved his little jokes about his boots--self-deprecating humor is a big winner with me.
He comes across as compassionate, passionate, and has the ability to give the inspirational speeches this country needs so badly. I do worry about his lack of experience, and he is hard core on some issues that Republicans need to say uncle about, if they want to stay relevant. Gay marriage is an example. The world has changed, gay marriage is here, Rs need to get over it and move to truly important issues that will impact generations to come. This is absolutely no fault of Rubios, but IF Hillary evades jail, and is the Dem nominee, giving her a tough debate will be a delicate thing. In general, we don't like seeing men speaking harshly to women. Bernie is getting away with it because he is an old guy, age-wise it seems a fairer fight.
I wonder how it would play out for a young man, like Rubio, to take off the gloves on an older woman in a debate. I fear he would be forced to tread extra lightly, as unfair as that is.
If the Conservative Party has any hope of surviving, it needs to learn which battles to pick, which battles to back away from. Conservatives need young, diverse blood.
I hope there are more of the town hall formats shown on TV. Good questions, no ugly shouting, time to speak, and a good insight in to the men, one of who hopefully be the next president. (except please not Trump)
Hollandtx, your post is superb. A mere "like" doesn't do it justice.
Amen. I hate getting flack from people when I say this. When I criticize a candidate for not being electable because of his "style" (acting like a jerk, seeming dumb, etc.), I'm accused of voting on superficiality. That's absurd. Though I may not care about style if I got to pick the President all by myself, to the overwhelming majority of the public, it does matter. Therefore, when picking a nominee, it certainly does matter a lot.
I think this is Cruz's biggest weakness. He's incredibly aloof and has little feel for connecting with regular people. That may be surprising to some, because Cruz was a very good lawyer, so you'd think he'd be good at connecting with and persuading people. However, he was primarily an appellate lawyer, not a trial lawyer. That means he was arguing to judges (who are academics and intellectuals), not juries (who are regular folks). It makes a huge difference.
Yep. Anytime I hear Trump speak and expect him to show the narcissism, he takes it to a higher level. "I'm great." "I'm smart." "I'm a great negotiator." "I'm really rich." "My wife is hot." Blah, blah, blah.
He's got a regular guy persona, and he isn't aloof like Cruz is. However, he does stumble around some - feels a little like listening to Bob Dole back in 1996. Interestingly, he doesn't do this in other contexts and debates. Back when he chaired the Budget Committee, I saw Kasich go on countless news programs to discuss and debate the budget, and he was much smoother. I'm not sure why he's different as a candidate than he was as an actual policymaker.
He can be polished as a communicator, and he's a great man for what he has done in medicine. He might be the best neurosurgeon who has ever lived. However, if he was the nominee, the Left would throw all the controversial things he has said about gays at him, and he'd get completely thrown off track. Furthermore, his grasp of policy is very weak.
I think this doomed him from the start. He would have been a good candidate in 2000, but instead, he waited his turn. For his patience, how was he rewarded? His brother completely destroyed the brand with the Iraq War and with the Great Recession. If Jeb won the nomination, he'd spend the entire campaign explaining why he's proud of his brother while also explaining why he's not like his brother. If you have to do that, you're not moving forward. You're treading water and never going on offense, and that means defeat.
Ditto (at least for Kaisch).
Rubio is a tough call for me. Kasich is my first choice and always has been. However, Rubio impresses me at times. However, just when I think I'm going to bolt on Kasich and vote for Rubio (mainly to coalesce behind someone other than Trump or Cruz), he screws up like he did in the New Hampshire debate. He's got huge talent, but I'm left wondering if he's really ready for a national campaign.
And you're very right on gay marriage. The GOP has always gotten by on the "yuck factor" of homosexuality to try to win on the issue, and frankly, I don't think they ever thought it through enough to come up with an objective rationale for their opposition. Well, for most people under 40, the "yuck factor" is gone. They see homosexuality as an arbitrary characteristic (like race or ethnicity) rather than a course of conduct, and if you try to follow the "yuck factor" playbook, you end up looking like a bully. It's time to drop the issue. However, that's tough, because for a big part of the GOP base, you look like an immoral sellout if you say you'll accept the Supreme Court's decision as the law of the land. That's the big challenge for Rubio and the rest of the candidates on this issue.
I'm going to put on my partisan hat. Whether or not you get flack for going after a woman is mostly driven by the media. If they talk about you looking like a bully, people will think you're acting like a bully. The biggest reason why Bernie gets away with it isn't his age. It's his liberalism. If you had an old conservative trashing Hillary in a debate, the political commentariat would deem him a bully.
Yes, and this is part of picking one's battles, they need to stop acting so damn angry and using apocalyptic rhetoric and instead come up with real and sensible policy initiatives that impact real people. I know that shouting that the sky is falling excites the rednecks and gets them to turn out, but it annoys and repels everybody else.
Amen. I hate getting flack from people when I say this. When I criticize a candidate for not being electable because of his "style" (acting like a jerk, seeming dumb, etc.), I'm accused of voting on superficiality. That's absurd. Though I may not care about style if I got to pick the President all by myself, to the overwhelming majority of the public, it does matter. Therefore, when picking a nominee, it certainly does matter a lot.
I think this is Cruz's biggest weakness. He's incredibly aloof and has little feel for connecting with regular people. That may be surprising to some, because Cruz was a very good lawyer, so you'd think he'd be good at connecting with and persuading people. However, he was primarily an appellate lawyer, not a trial lawyer. That means he was arguing to judges (who are academics and intellectuals), not juries (who are regular folks). It makes a huge difference.
Yep. Anytime I hear Trump speak and expect him to show the narcissism, he takes it to a higher level. "I'm great." "I'm smart." "I'm a great negotiator." "I'm really rich." "My wife is hot." Blah, blah, blah.
He's got a regular guy persona, and he isn't aloof like Cruz is. However, he does stumble around some - feels a little like listening to Bob Dole back in 1996. Interestingly, he doesn't do this in other contexts and debates. Back when he chaired the Budget Committee, I saw Kasich go on countless news programs to discuss and debate the budget, and he was much smoother. I'm not sure why he's different as a candidate than he was as an actual policymaker.
He can be polished as a communicator, and he's a great man for what he has done in medicine. He might be the best neurosurgeon who has ever lived. However, if he was the nominee, the Left would throw all the controversial things he has said about gays at him, and he'd get completely thrown off track. Furthermore, his grasp of policy is very weak.
I think this doomed him from the start. He would have been a good candidate in 2000, but instead, he waited his turn. For his patience, how was he rewarded? His brother completely destroyed the brand with the Iraq War and with the Great Recession. If Jeb won the nomination, he'd spend the entire campaign explaining why he's proud of his brother while also explaining why he's not like his brother. If you have to do that, you're not moving forward. You're treading water and never going on offense, and that means defeat.
Ditto (at least for Kaisch).
Rubio is a tough call for me. Kasich is my first choice and always has been. However, Rubio impresses me at times. However, just when I think I'm going to bolt on Kasich and vote for Rubio (mainly to coalesce behind someone other than Trump or Cruz), he screws up like he did in the New Hampshire debate. He's got huge talent, but I'm left wondering if he's really ready for a national campaign.
And you're very right on gay marriage. The GOP has always gotten by on the "yuck factor" of homosexuality to try to win on the issue, and frankly, I don't think they ever thought it through enough to come up with an objective rationale for their opposition. Well, for most people under 40, the "yuck factor" is gone. They see homosexuality as an arbitrary characteristic (like race or ethnicity) rather than a course of conduct, and if you try to follow the "yuck factor" playbook, you end up looking like a bully. It's time to drop the issue. However, that's tough, because for a big part of the GOP base, you look like an immoral sellout if you say you'll accept the Supreme Court's decision as the law of the land. That's the big challenge for Rubio and the rest of the candidates on this issue.
I'm going to put on my partisan hat. Whether or not you get flack for going after a woman is mostly driven by the media. If they talk about you looking like a bully, people will think you're acting like a bully. The biggest reason why Bernie gets away with it isn't his age. It's his liberalism. If you had an old conservative trashing Hillary in a debate, the political commentariat would deem him a bully.
Yes, and this is part of picking one's battles, they need to stop acting so damn angry and using apocalyptic rhetoric and instead come up with real and sensible policy initiatives that impact real people. I know that shouting that the sky is falling excites the rednecks and gets them to turn out, but it annoys and repels everybody else.
Very true. The most disappointing part of this race for me has been Kasich's speaking skills. The bizarre thing is that Kasich used to be one of the more passionate and charismatic speakers in the HoR. I would even enjoy watching him on C-SPAN during the "Republican Revolution" era. He has mellowed out a lot.
http://www.c-span.org/video/?c4545306/kasich-1994
I like to format too. It confirmed that I do not want Trump and moved Kasich way up in my consideration.
The debates have become too staged. From the Democrats trying to avoid the public view to the Repubs having a cage match, I now avoid the debates.
I think the Repubs are headed for a brokered convention. I think Rubio (not my first choice, but might be the best option) comes out of it the winner. I would definitely like to see Kasich be a VP at this point.
The debates have become too staged. From the Democrats trying to avoid the public view to the Repubs having a cage match, I now avoid the debates.
I think the Repubs are headed for a brokered convention. I think Rubio (not my first choice, but might be the best option) comes out of it the winner. I would definitely like to see Kasich be a VP at this point.
I haven't mailed my ballot yet. Should I print it out again and vote for Rubio?
If they are the nominees, I'll vote third party. My ideal choice would be s mainstream conservative (or what we used to call a conservative) Republican like Kasich or Rubio running independent. My next choice would be a moderate like Bloomberg running. My last choice would be voting Libertarian.
BevoBeef
250+ Posts
Absolutely NOT. You cannot force-fit a solution. (except if you are someone like Nixon). The people need a chance to express themselves. The real problem is not the vote but in not allowing the people to see clearly why they should vote a certain way. I get so sick when I listen to ABC/NBC/CBS etc. talk about the Democratic primary and mention zilch about the FBI investigation and not asking about when is their report going to come out.
I fully appreciate that Trump's ceiling is in the 30's percentile. Let DT keep on saying that the Pope may not be a Christian. No one would hate it more than I if Trump is nominated. I really do not blame anyone for urging people to leave the race before it is time.
However, where would this country be if Washington played the odds and gave up at Valley Forge or if FDR felt like it was hopeless to go against Japan's naval empire after Pearl Harbor? -------- or, for that matter, give up on Hornfans when the founder quit?
Last edited:
I understand what you're saying, but I don't like pissing in the wind either. As a practical matter, you have to get 20 percent or higher to be relevant in the Texas primary. Kasich is my first choice, but he's a long shot to reach 20 percent. The way I see it, Cruz has a colossal grassroots army in Texas. That's how he knocked out Dewhurst in 2012. That coupled with his incumbency as a Senator and name recognition will be enough to come in first. However, there are enough nitwits and rednecks who will vote for Trump and deny Cruz the 50 percent barrier. Either way, between Cruz and Trump, that won't leave a lot of percentage points for the other candidates, and in the polling I've seen, Kasich barely registers at all in Texas. With Jeb out and Carson floundering, Rubio could reach 20 percent, but he'll need all the votes he can get. That's why I'm toying with changing my ballot.
That's the Kasich I remember. He was tough but more polished than he is now. However, even back then, he wasn't a raging partisan and frequently built bipartisan coalitions with moderate Democrats that forced the Democratic leadership to the table.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
That gets creepier every time I look at it.
I get a chuckle about this criticism of Cruz. He wasn't my first because his tax plan only shuffles things around a little bit ... I'm a "FAIRTAX.org" guy (even if I'd rather the rate be about 1/2 of proposed) Huckabee carried this and he was my first choice. I didn't get very far before I had to change ponies.
I've found Cruz to be quite the conversationalist, Holland. There are literally dozens of youtube clips where he has been recorded on the campaign trail and fielding questions from "man on the street" ... that's improv ... not polished prep.
He's not very photogenic. I get that. A little goofy in some mannerisms. So has Carson.
I consider these to be ticky tack criticisms. If doctrine is sound and temperament is controlled ... it's a done deal. I can go with Rubio, if he wins the nomination ... but Cruz has a better grasp on reforming the Fed.
So, I'm with Cruz.
I've found Cruz to be quite the conversationalist, Holland. There are literally dozens of youtube clips where he has been recorded on the campaign trail and fielding questions from "man on the street" ... that's improv ... not polished prep.
He's not very photogenic. I get that. A little goofy in some mannerisms. So has Carson.
I consider these to be ticky tack criticisms. If doctrine is sound and temperament is controlled ... it's a done deal. I can go with Rubio, if he wins the nomination ... but Cruz has a better grasp on reforming the Fed.
So, I'm with Cruz.
Attachments
Massengale is a bought and paid for prostitute and is challenging one of the very few justices on the Court who actually cares about the law and isn't owned by anybody. Rick Green has virtually no legal experience, much less judicial experience.
I'll admit, I relied heavily on trusted recommendations for the SC judges. Maybe my counsel is deceived, too?
I don't think I'm alone in recommendation reliance, btw. FEW are those who know what's happening in that circle. Everyone knows what they expect a judge to do, but recognizing which ones will actually do that is a different enchilada.
it's a big enough challenge determining the POTUS vote ... and those guys have been in front of us for 9 months/so with quite the PAC funding to put 'em on TV/RADIO/PRINT ... et al.
I sure would like to see a bill abolishing the property tax, though!!!! The govt shouldn't be able to dictate property value ... and it does; routinely. I even got out of the Chief CAD they are directed by the Comptroller to substantiate the county's value. So, the "problem" is worked in reverse.
It's time to "clean out the barn!"
I don't think I'm alone in recommendation reliance, btw. FEW are those who know what's happening in that circle. Everyone knows what they expect a judge to do, but recognizing which ones will actually do that is a different enchilada.
it's a big enough challenge determining the POTUS vote ... and those guys have been in front of us for 9 months/so with quite the PAC funding to put 'em on TV/RADIO/PRINT ... et al.
I sure would like to see a bill abolishing the property tax, though!!!! The govt shouldn't be able to dictate property value ... and it does; routinely. I even got out of the Chief CAD they are directed by the Comptroller to substantiate the county's value. So, the "problem" is worked in reverse.
It's time to "clean out the barn!"
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
Here is video of Rubio reading a mean Trump tweet, and making fun of him backstage
http://www.snappytv.com/tc/1450501
Will not embed, but its short and funny
Rubio seems more relaxed and less stiff/robotic than normal
http://www.snappytv.com/tc/1450501
Will not embed, but its short and funny
Rubio seems more relaxed and less stiff/robotic than normal
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
I hope Rubio continues to hammer Trump. It's not very "Presidential" but that appears to be what this election cycle has been reduced to.
Incidentally, why is Rubio mocking Trump for correctly spelling "choker"?
Last edited:
This race has the dignity and intellectual nuance of a hotdog eating contest. If it goes beyond Super Tuesday, they'll descend into dueling "Yo' Mama's So Fat" jokes.
That was pretty funny except for the fact that Trump spelled "choker" correctly.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
OK. It appears that Trump initially spelled it "chocker" then deleted the tweet and reposted it as "choker". He did the same when he spelled honor "honer" originally. So, Trump wouldn't win a spelling bee. That will be applauded to by his base, I'm sure.
Weekly Prediction Contest
* Predict HORNS-AGGIES *
Sat, Nov 30 • 6:30 PM on ABC
Recent Threads
-
President Biden Accountability Thread
- Started by 2003TexasGrad
- Replies: 4K
- West Mall
-
The Media Industry
- Started by texas_ex2000
- Replies: 8K
- West Mall
Prediction Results Threads
