Way too early republican primary thread

[ShAArk92]

... well, it's Rubio's statement which is funny. He either misread the tweet ... or was so pumped in his prep before taking the stage, the spelling as he read it eluded him, too!

 

[UTChE96]

It appears that Trump initially spelled it "chocker" then deleted the tweet and reposted it as "choker". He did the same when he spelled honor "honer" originally. So, Trump wouldn't win a spelling bee. That will be applauded to by his base, I'm sure.

As Shaark said, it was the fact that Rubio spelled the word out "choker" not "chocker" and then said it was misspelled. When I heard that I immediately thought it may turn into a Dan Quayle moment.

 

[Mr. Deez]

I'll admit, I relied heavily on trusted recommendations for the SC judges. Maybe my counsel is deceived, too?

I don't think I'm alone in recommendation reliance, btw. FEW are those who know what's happening in that circle. Everyone knows what they expect a judge to do, but recognizing which ones will actually do that is a different enchilada.

Without knowing your counsel (and I don't expect you disclose him or her here), it's hard to say, but I'm going to speculate that he or she is a social conservative.

Opposition to Debra Lehrmann (Massengale's opponent) falls into two camps. First, the insurance lobby doesn't like her, because she doesn't kneejerk vote in their favor on the court. (More often than not, she does, but they want a consistent Seventh Amendment hater, like most of the other justices and like Massengale will be.)

Second, some social conservatives are opposing her, because they think she screwed them on a gay marriage ruling. They're wrong all the way around - she didn't screw them, and it wasn't a gay marriage ruling. Justice Lehrmann recused herself from the case. Judges do that all the time for various reasons, usually centered around conflicts of interest. For example, they may have a close relationship with one of the parties or one of the lawyers, and that relationship might impact their impartiality. If that's the case, recusal isn't screwing anybody over. It's doing the right thing.

Like I said, it wasn't a gay marriage ruling. The Attorney General's office intervened in a case in which the trial judge (in Travis County, of course) granted a divorce to a gay couple and found the state's ban on gay marriage to be unconstitutional. The Attorney General's office intervened and appealed the case, and the Texas Supreme Court denied their appeal. Is the Texas Supreme Court pro-gay marriage? Absolutely not. In fact, none of them are.

Here's the problem. The Attorney General screwed up. Rather than intervene at the trial court level, they intervened on appeal. If they screw that up, the Supreme Court loses its jurisdiction to rule on the underlying issue, so they declined to do so. I'm good friends with the staff attorney for the justice who authored the opinion, and they knew they'd get backlash for making the ruling, but the law is the law. The AG screwed up, and the court did the right thing. (Of course, the US Supreme Court rendered the entire matter moot very shortly after.)

What tips me off that your counsel is a social conservative is that he's backing Rick Green. The insurance lobby is supporting his opponent who dutifully carries their water and does their dirty work.

I like Rick Green. He's a good man, and he believes in what he's doing. He's not a phony. However, he should be running for something else - like the legislature where he used to serve. Your first legal job shouldn't be on the Supreme Court.

I sure would like to see a bill abolishing the property tax, though!!!! The govt shouldn't be able to dictate property value ... and it does; routinely. I even got out of the Chief CAD they are directed by the Comptroller to substantiate the county's value. So, the "problem" is worked in reverse.

I agree. However, you won't see that happen, because the cities and school districts (who drive your property tax bill more than anybody) are a very powerful lobby in Austin. (Yes, your local school district and city council use your tax dollars to lobby the Legislature against your interests.) Basically if you see a candidate for the Legislature who brags about having the support of the mayor, the city council, or the school board trustees, get as far away from him as possible.

I'm not a fan of a state income tax (would prefer a higher sales tax), but I really hate property taxes. They bear little relation to the ability of the property owner to pay. Furthermore, they're too easy to raise. Basically if the government wants more cash, the CAD says your property is worth more, and you have to go fight his goofy subjective finding. It's a racket, and it distorts the market value of real property.

 

[ShAArk92]

No prob, Deez. Yes ... a staunch social conservative is my counsel on the judges. I won't apologize for it, as I do not see the need for such.

Appreciate your expanding the discussion on it, especially the part of how the homosexual issue was mishandled by the State. It doesn't surprise me, sadly.

yeah, I know the school is a powerful lobby. It's an unholy alliance for them, too ... the Big A (TEA) directs all of their ways without means, so they are forced to lobby against property owner interests. I completely endorse your thoughts on the tax issue.

 

[nashhorn]

Oh man, oh man the property tax! That is what is moving us out of the Katy ISD. Uh, yes my son graduated HS here 6 years ago. Time for us to get out of Dodge and find something with a bit more reasonable tax rate.

 

[theiioftx]

Oh man, oh man the property tax! That is what is moving us out of the Katy ISD. Uh, yes my son graduated HS here 6 years ago. Time for us to get out of Dodge and find something with a bit more reasonable tax rate.

Moved to Tennessee 3 years ago. Bought twice the house, but my property taxes were cut by 2/3rds. Yes, a little higher sales tax, but no income tax either. The state operates today with a surplus. And by the way, my kid's public high school blows away anything in Houston.

 

[nashhorn]

Watch out Theo. My daughter teaches in a Nashville magnet school. New policy just announced in email to teachers is causing her and husband to consider leaking email to public - essentially teachers cannot hold students accountable for grades or work they do not complete and/or turn in. Principles have to comply. Things have been trending that way for awhile but never in a mandated policy. Scary stuff if you are a concerned parent. All a result of the 'participation' mentality.

 

[zork]

Did you not see how the Dem primaries were orchestrated? The only chance to beat the inevitable, is to support an unlikely Trump nomination. Not saying he will win but he is the best hope.

The latest numbers now are 1800+ Secret/Classified documents were mishandled by the Democratic front runner.

Maybe the Executive Branch has come up with the un-Pardon strategy? Don't prosecute who you like. That is a fantastic precedent, right? The Republic is failing due to the horrible precedents being set by the current Administration.

 

[theiioftx]

Williamson County - not Nashville..

 

[Joe Fan]

Super Tuesday exit polling
I would have guessed less than 44%

 

[Seattle Husker]

Super Tuesday exit polling
I would have guessed less than 44%

Meaning a greater % to the "yes" side? I would have guessed that Trump + Cruz equal the "yes". Afterall, that's the thrust of each of their stump speech.

I've been thinking a lot about Trump's base recently. Could it be that we've overestimated the power of the Evangelical and Tea Party wings of the Republican party? Coming into the election it appeared they were the major influence. Then Trump came along with simplistic messages that equated to a "squirrel" moment for the no-college blue collar base of the Republican party.

Anyone who has seen the movie "UP" should understand the squirrel comment.

 

[Joe Fan]

....Could it be that we've overestimated the power of the Evangelical and Tea Party wings of the Republican party? Coming into the election it appeared they were the major influence. ....

I thought that, coming in, the thinking was the TP had been marginalized?

Clearly Trump has motivated some crossover, motivated some of those who dont normally vote in primaries (record turnouts) and even made inroads with some minority groups. I find it all so fascinating. I know he has had some Lee Atwater disciples helping him in some states. We knew about Coulter's influence on his immigration stance and now we learned it was Sessions who re-enforced the immigration argument and added bad trade agreements (the ghost of Ross Perot?). I wonder if we will learn about others in the background later?

 

[Joe Fan]

 

[Joe Fan]

Rubio won Austin
Interesting that Trump won some border counties
This link has the map, can mouse-over for details
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas

 

[Crockett]

Clearly Trum has motivated some crossover, motivated some of those who dont normally vote in primaries (record turnouts) and even made inroads with some minority groups.

Yeah: That's definitely upsetting a lot of the "purer than thou" Republican crowd, but Christie is not the last pragmatist to throw in with Trump.

I saw a talking head that said inside the Beltway Republican establishment is more comfortable with Trump than with Cruz. The folks trying to run the "Rinos" and "Squish" Republicans out of the party have to go all in for Cruz. Rubio talked the Tea Party game, but in my mind he truly is the lightweight Trump and Christie have called out.

For some of the old line Republican Establishment Types -- every Bush, Dole, McCain -- the Cruz, Trump choice is like choosing between being beaten up by Brock Lesnar or Tyson Fury.

 

[Joe Fan]

Maybe it was early voting?

 

[Joe Fan]

...Clearly Trump has motivated some crossover, motivated some of those who dont normally vote in primaries (record turnouts) and even made inroads with some minority groups......

Virginia GOP primary turnout in 2012: 265,570
Estimate in 2016?: 1,025,000
Pretty big increase

 

[ShAArk92]

Virginia GOP primary turnout in 2012: 265,570
Estimate in 2016?: 1,025,000
Pretty big increase

Aye ... probably more democrat participation, ceding the general and voting in the republican primary. that seems to be happening more & more ...
It did once again in Texas State district 59 ... almost no democrat primary votes ... so, they voted for the liberal, of course, & have established him. They did this 4 years ago and ousted our now Ag Commish.

I'm sick of party primaries. Put 'em all on the ballot ... 2 runoffs to get to the top two ... then press. If that's a pair of Attilla the Huns or Pol Pots ... so be it.

 

[Joe Fan]

Aye ... probably more democrat participation, ceding the general and voting in the republican primary. that seems to be happening more & more ........

That wouldnt explain early voting, which was huge

 

[Joe Fan]

I was alive for this election
The media kept telling us Carter was going to win all the way into November
Even though it's been ~100 years, I can still remember being angry over that misinformation. Reagan was a big joke at the time, the frequent subject of comedians and SNL, etc

 

[ShAArk92]

you can't cross pollenate in early voting?

 

[ShAArk92]

I was alive for this election
The media kept telling us Carter was going to win all the way into November
Even though it's been ~100 years, I can still remember being angry over that misinformation, felt lied to, manipulated.

Well, that leads me to another question ... how can these media people "call" races with <1% reporting? I watched 'em call GA and AL for Trump with this condition.

Meanwhile, 30 minutes after polls closed in Texas ... 3X% reporting with Cruz leading by double digits ... still not "called."

So ... <1% of Texas (for example) 254 counties would be ... 2. So, the most populous counties being Harris & Dallas? (Bexar?) ... Even if ALL votes in that race were for a given candidate, that doesn't result in a victory for the leader of THOSE counties. So ...

How does that happen?

Is that "reporting" number WAY off?

 

[theiioftx]

I was alive for this election
The media kept telling us Carter was going to win all the way into November
Even though it's been ~100 years, I can still remember being angry over that misinformation. Reagan was a big joke at the time, the frequent subject of comedians and SNL, etc

Apparently Gilmore won a district in Mass. The American voter has reached an apex of stupidity.

 

[ShAArk92]

yes ... stupid ... but at least respecting integrity. I can't understand the fascination with #HisSilentinBengHazi

weak candidate ... criminal.

But ... she IS a Clinton & somehow they've fooled everyone into thinking they're "something"

GIVE US A KING!!!

just like the Israelites in "ONE SAM" (sic) 8:6

 

[Crockett]

I'm looking at the number of delegates outstanding and I just don't see that the Republican race is settled. Most of the country has not yet weighed in.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html#!
What am I missing?

 

[Joe Fan]

 

[Joe Fan]

you can't cross pollenate in early voting?

It's state by state. Some of the rules are pretty arcane. For example, Virg allowed crossover but ousux did not (helped Cruz win). Texas has the 20% rule - you dont get any delegates at all unless you hit that threshold.

 

[Joe Fan]

Apparently Gilmore won a district in Mass. The American voter has reached an apex of stupidity.

Probably due to early voting = my guess
In Virg, they had 40k votes for people no longer running
EV has to be the reason, right?

 

[ShAArk92]

Probably due to early voting = my guess
In Virg, they had 40k votes for people no longer running
EV has to be the reason, right?

LOL, well they were all on our ballot.

I was just stoked that Texas was a factor this year for somebody I could support with a bit of enthusiasm. The GOP hasn't done that in a LONG time. Which is why, given the DNC candidates (and they dispatched Jim Webb!!!), I can't help but think the entire deal is rigged with a 1/16th standard deviation allowed for "the people to choose."

 

[Joe Fan]