Way too early republican primary thread
- Thread starter Larry T Spider
- Start date
NJlonghorn
2,500+ Posts
I'm not going to stand up for the process because I have doubts about how reliable and unbiased it is, but I will try to explain.
The reporting is precinct by precinct, not county by county. The analysts look not only at how many precincts have reported, but which ones. If there is a good demographic mix of precincts that have reported, then the analysts are more comfortable relying on the early results. But if the early-reporting precincts are skewed towards a particular demographic, then the analysts will hold off on calling a race.
NJlonghorn
2,500+ Posts
Wow, that's interesting. That will be something to watch closely, especially when looking at the purple states.
NJlonghorn
2,500+ Posts
In 2012, Obama was unopposed. Thus, the comparison with 2008 is more meaningful.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
Of all the candidates in this race, R or D, Kasich is the only candidate deserving of my vote.
Larry T Spider
100+ Posts
Honestly the same way that I feel.
Sadly enough in a society that honors only winners, Rubio, a freshman senator who did third best among in a deep field of famous and well-funded candidates, will spend much of his career trying to prove he's not a loser. It's kind of unfair that he got labeled with the Marco Roboto for repeating memorized campaign messages. Watching election coverage, I've seen Ted Cruz give the same canned victory speech at every post primary election party, even down to the voice inflection and self-satisfied smile after he makes each point and is not above using segments of it over again the same night. I'm not contending Ted can't think on his feet -- he's honestly brilliant at it -- just that all candidates necessarily fall back on familiar messages when they are appropriate. Heck, Trump routinely repeats the same point twice, consecutively.
How many times do Republicans have to be shown that you do not make deals with Dems? That you will always take it in the shorts in the end? I guess I thought that GHWB's experience with "No New Taxes" would have done it for all time. I was wrong.
If Rubio does not endorse any existing candidate, what happens to his delegates? Are they free to vote for whoever they want (yes I know that in reality they are all free to do that)? What if he endorses, say, Cruz - do his delegates then get counted for Cruz? Or are they uncommitted? I am confused on this.
Rubio's candidacy was a disappointment all the way around. First, he gave up what would have been a safe GOP Senate seat from a swing state to run. Unless you're the clear favorite to win the nomination, that isn't worth the gamble.
Second, he had to know his support for the immigration reform bill was going to be a major liability. That one vote tarnished him as "Establishment," even though he generally wasn't. Either way, he needed to come up with a respectable rationale for his support. Instead he gambled on flip-flopping. Rather than appeasing the anti-reformers as he hoped, it pissed them off and made them generally suspicious of him.
Third, rather than acting mature and policy-oriented in the face of the Springer marathon (Trump's campaign), he decided to start throwing chairs himself. During the later debates, he almost sounded like Trump at times, and don't forget that he brought up the cock size issue first, even if Trump was the first to mention it at the debate.
Finally, because of the factors above, of all the candidates who will ultimately lose, I think he has done the most long term damage to his career. For a guy that young and with a future that bright, I think that's really sad.
I find that folks who are "too tuned-in" often speak of the "repetitiveness" in speeches.
There's only so much which can be said. I find being able to rattle off the "necessaries" without a lot of thinking allows me to attend to important stuff, like getting ready to pushback, and it keeps me from saying something I might not oughta when I'm doing something else.
maybe not a fair comparison, but ... it's politics. Same verse of the same song.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
Has anyone followed the news that Marco Rubio has suddenly back the man that he said the following? Rubio just validates all the accusations that he was inauthentic which he endorsement of Trump.
http://www.azquotes.com/quote/1485915
http://www.azquotes.com/quote/1485932
I think this is much tougher to defend than Ryan's endorsement. Rubio was in a very nasty campaign against Trump and said horrible (though true) things about him. It's a colossal and unwarranted flip flop to get on his team now, especially with this degree of enthusiasm. He basically has no credibility at all anymore. In addition, he's not seeking reelection, so it wouldn't hurt him much to just keep his mouth shut. Nobody would have thought much of it (sorta like what Ted Cruz has done, though I expect he'll eventually come around at least tepidly).
What this tells me is that Rubio is angling for something - either the VP slot or a cabinet position.
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