Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
The Kursk offensive has motivated Russia to bomb Ukraine harder. It has discouraged Russia from seeking negotiations. Russia's bombing have caused Ukraine to want to use US weapons to bomb further into Russia. Violence begets violence. In the meantime Russia can still mobilize more to fight. Ukraine is getting very close to their total capability. To date, the best estimates I have seen are 70,000 Russian dead. 500,000 Ukrainian dead. Many young people on both sides have tried to get out of the country to avoid being in the war. Both economies are suffering. Russia is really feeling the pain with inflation from lack of supply. It will only get worse.
As I have said from the beginning. The only way out is de-escalation paving the way for negotiation. Both sides need to be willing to not get everything that they want. Ukraine is going to lose some land, may have to agree to repair the Nordstream pipeline, and accept they will never be in NATO . Russia is going to have to give up some land they want. They may also even need to pay some sanctions to Ukraine for the invasion.
I read 10 years ago that Ukraine was essentially 3 countries in one. Far West is basically European. At different times they were a part of Poland, the Lithuanian empire, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Far East is very culturally Russian. The people speak Russian. If given the chance they probably become a part of Russia. The middle part has the most complete Ukrainian identity. You could very well let the people decide to split into 3 parts and determine their own way forward. They could also stay together and work together as more of a federation of 3 semi-autonomous states. What I don't think will work is Ukraine being 1 central state dictating everything for the rest. The same could be needed for Russia and even the United States.
As I have said from the beginning. The only way out is de-escalation paving the way for negotiation. Both sides need to be willing to not get everything that they want. Ukraine is going to lose some land, may have to agree to repair the Nordstream pipeline, and accept they will never be in NATO . Russia is going to have to give up some land they want. They may also even need to pay some sanctions to Ukraine for the invasion.
I read 10 years ago that Ukraine was essentially 3 countries in one. Far West is basically European. At different times they were a part of Poland, the Lithuanian empire, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Far East is very culturally Russian. The people speak Russian. If given the chance they probably become a part of Russia. The middle part has the most complete Ukrainian identity. You could very well let the people decide to split into 3 parts and determine their own way forward. They could also stay together and work together as more of a federation of 3 semi-autonomous states. What I don't think will work is Ukraine being 1 central state dictating everything for the rest. The same could be needed for Russia and even the United States.
