Ukraine updates

mchammer said:
After the summer fighting season is over, I suspect the lines will be more or less set unless Russian wants another offensive next summer.

You have to ask if the average Ukrainian cares if they are ruled by corrupt Ukrainians or corrupt Russians.
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Ukraine has been a divided country for a long time. So it depends on which part you are talking about. The West has been pushing for EU access for decades. The young there don't even want to live in Ukraine because many consider themselves "European". This part of Ukraine used to be part of Poland and was also a part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The East, Donbas, has leaned toward Russia because it used to be a part of Russia. When the fighting started many in that area fled into Russia. The center around Kiev is more like the West but identifies more specifically with Ukraine.
 
New update. The Dnieper River dam was bombed. Water is pouring out putting farmland in jeopardy or causing other problems. Both sides are blaming the other. Sad news. Things like this are going to keep on happening the longer the war is prolonged. Need negotiations but not going to happen for the foreseeable future. More death and destruction on the way. Maybe once the counter-offensive happens there will be another opportunity.
 
The Ukrainian counter offensive has started. Sounds like they have made some headway along the front in a couple of areas. Don't know much more about it.
 
According to the WSJ, they made inroads but not as far as they expected. The Russians appear to be playing Whack-a-Mole - waiting until the Ukrainians make a move and then pounce on them from the air. Ukrainians pleading for more airplanes.
 
ViperHorn said:
According to the WSJ, they made inroads but not as far as they expected. The Russians appear to be playing Whack-a-Mole - waiting until the Ukrainians make a move and then pounce on them from the air. Ukrainians pleading for more airplanes.
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Yeah. It sounds like Ukraine is trying what Russia did to start the war by having a very large front. Not sure that is a winning strategy for either side. They are going to need to concentrate force to do anything meaningful.
 
Just to make sure everyone understands a couple of things:
  • Russia is the only one who can gain a military victory (they will keep throwing thugs and criminals into the fight until Ukraine is forced to capitulate); and
  • Ukraine needs to understand that at some point the money and equipment are going to run out (and, unless the Russians use a tactical nuke, NATO isn't going to send troops in), so they should be formulating how they want their country divided. Give that to the UN to enforce (eventually NATO would have to take over, but the UN should be the mediator).
 
What a position Biden has placed us in; billions in aid to Ukraine and keeping the petro price high thereby paying for Russia’s war expense. Jeez, talk about lunacy.
 
Latest news is that the counteroffensive did little. It was spread thin along the front. Took a city or two, maybe a few more, but nothing strategically important. Ukraine has stalled the attack and are reassessing their plan. They will probably focus attack in one area to try to make progress, but it isn't looking good. The battle of Bakhmut exhausted their forces even taking some 10,000 well trained soldiers that we needed for the offensive.

There are 2 basic ways this war will go over the next year. The counter attacks failure will either trigger a ceasefire and negotiation, or it will trigger bringing in NATO soldiers and escalate into a full European war or beyond. The US government has already short circuited 2 attempts at negotiation. Let's hope they don't do that a third time.
 
Interesting timing update from Pentagon on over estimating aid in form of value of equipment given to Ukraine . Estimates now of 6.2 billion over estimated.
Announced same day as Hunter's sweet deal.
 
THIS is what I don't get.
"
Singh said calculations revealed there was an overestimation of $3.6 billion in the current fiscal year and $2.6 billion in fiscal 23, which ended Sept. 30.
It’s just going to go back into the pot of money that we have allocated” for future military stock drawdowns, Singh said, adding that the error won’t affect the ongoing delivery of aid to Ukraine.

That means the Pentagon has an unexpected influx of money banked to use to bolster Ukraine in its newly launched counteroffensive against Russia. "
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4060302-pentagon-overvalued-ukraine-military-aid/

It kinda looks like they are going to use the 6.2 as "found" money for Ukraine instead of just letting it go.
But maybe I don't understand Pentagonese
 
Horn6721 said:
THIS is what I don't get.
"
Singh said calculations revealed there was an overestimation of $3.6 billion in the current fiscal year and $2.6 billion in fiscal 23, which ended Sept. 30.
It’s just going to go back into the pot of money that we have allocated” for future military stock drawdowns, Singh said, adding that the error won’t affect the ongoing delivery of aid to Ukraine.

That means the Pentagon has an unexpected influx of money banked to use to bolster Ukraine in its newly launched counteroffensive against Russia. "
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4060302-pentagon-overvalued-ukraine-military-aid/

It kinda looks like they are going to use the 6.2 as "found" money for Ukraine instead of just letting it go.
But maybe I don't understand Pentagonese
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Poorly worded explanation. They are sending more equipment for the same amount of funding. The equipment is now being valued at the original purchase price instead of replacement cost. It is not “found” money. Instead, it is found “value” for the same amount of money.
 
Horn6721 said:
THIS is what I don't get.
"
Singh said calculations revealed there was an overestimation of $3.6 billion in the current fiscal year and $2.6 billion in fiscal 23, which ended Sept. 30.
It’s just going to go back into the pot of money that we have allocated” for future military stock drawdowns, Singh said, adding that the error won’t affect the ongoing delivery of aid to Ukraine.

That means the Pentagon has an unexpected influx of money banked to use to bolster Ukraine in its newly launched counteroffensive against Russia. "
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4060302-pentagon-overvalued-ukraine-military-aid/

It kinda looks like they are going to use the 6.2 as "found" money for Ukraine instead of just letting it go.
But maybe I don't understand Pentagonese
Click to expand...
You could also characterize it as a refund due to overcharging that should never have happened.
 
Voodoo math. You need some money that you do not want to go back to Congress for? Overcharge and there’s no longer a problem. Liars.
 
Monahorns said:
Latest news is that the counteroffensive did little. It was spread thin along the front. Took a city or two, maybe a few more, but nothing strategically important. Ukraine has stalled the attack and are reassessing their plan. They will probably focus attack in one area to try to make progress, but it isn't looking good. The battle of Bakhmut exhausted their forces even taking some 10,000 well trained soldiers that we needed for the offensive.

There are 2 basic ways this war will go over the next year. The counter attacks failure will either trigger a ceasefire and negotiation, or it will trigger bringing in NATO soldiers and escalate into a full European war or beyond. The US government has already short circuited 2 attempts at negotiation. Let's hope they don't do that a third time.
Click to expand...
Ukraine will not win on the battlefield and Putin will not quit. Ukraine should be focusing on cutting off Crimea and destroying the Russian naval base at Sevastopol.
Turn Crimea into a UN protectorate using real troops instead of the useless troops the UN usually sends in. (While there are recurring religious issues, the same way Kosovo is surviving.)
 
ViperHorn said:
Ukraine will not win on the battlefield and Putin will not quit. Ukraine should be focusing on cutting off Crimea and destroying the Russian naval base at Sevastopol.
Turn Crimea into a UN protectorate using real troops instead of the useless troops the UN usually sends in. (While there are recurring religious issues, the same way Kosovo is surviving.)
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If they had balls, they would send 5000 paratroopers into Crimea and let them fight back to Ukraine.
 
ViperHorn said:
Ukraine will not win on the battlefield and Putin will not quit. Ukraine should be focusing on cutting off Crimea and destroying the Russian naval base at Sevastopol.
Turn Crimea into a UN protectorate using real troops instead of the useless troops the UN usually sends in. (While there are recurring religious issues, the same way Kosovo is surviving.)
Click to expand...

ViperHorn, listening to some military experts, it will be very difficult, maybe outside the realm of possibility, for Ukraine to cut off the land bridge between Donbas and Crimea. However, even if they did that, then they could be attacked from both sides. The Ukraine army would be in a very dangerous position and would most likely suffer a large defeat at that point.

Are you saying that NATO or US troops should attack Crimea? What US security interest does that serve? What do you think Russia would do in response?
 
Monahorns said:
ViperHorn, listening to some military experts, it will be very difficult, maybe outside the realm of possibility, for Ukraine to cut off the land bridge between Donbas and Crimea. However, even if they did that, then they could be attacked from both sides. The Ukraine army would be in a very dangerous position and would most likely suffer a large defeat at that point.

Are you saying that NATO or US troops should attack Crimea? What US security interest does that serve? What do you think Russia would do in response?
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No NATO or US troops in that quagmire. Military experts and weathermen are about equally believable. Take the port to control the rear and put pressure on the northern border. Let the UN police the truce/peace agreement. The Russians could not defeat the Talaban in Afganistan so, short of the use of nukes, they will eventually cave.
 
ViperHorn said:
No NATO or US troops in that quagmire. Military experts and weathermen are about equally believable. Take the port to control the rear and put pressure on the northern border. Let the UN police the truce/peace agreement. The Russians could not defeat the Talaban in Afganistan so, short of the use of nukes, they will eventually cave.
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You are saying Ukraine soldiers should directly attack Sevastapol from the Black Sea?
 
Monahorns said:
You are saying Ukraine soldiers should directly attack Sevastopol from the Black Sea?
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Yes after NATO/UN blockades the coastline at the 12-mile limit and a concentrated air campaign by Ukraine (they can do that with what they have). Push South and East by troops from the North. At some form a ring and starve the Russians out.

Strength in numbers. Much better than fighting it out in scattered areas.
 
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