Ukraine updates

mchammer said:
Russia get its leverage from the land, ports, and other strategic possessions. Not sure if they measure superpower by GDP, culture, etc.
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Plenty of wheat producing land--check. Their ports mostly suck, and they're sooooooooooooooo far apart. Their Black Sea fleet is trapped in by the narrow straights through the Istanbul/Constantinople area. Their Baltic fleet is trapped in by the narrow straights through Denmark. That leaves the North and the Far East.

The rest of the world has its measures of superpower status. The Russians can live as emperors in their own heads, I suppose.
 
Chop said:
Plenty of wheat producing land--check. Their ports mostly suck, and they're sooooooooooooooo far apart. Their Black Sea fleet is trapped in by the narrow straights through the Istanbul/Constantinople area. Their Baltic fleet is trapped in by the narrow straights through Denmark. That leaves the North and the Far East.

The rest of the world has its measures of superpower status. The Russians can live as emperors in their own heads, I suppose.
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Okay, so who cares if they take 1/3 of Ukraine?
 
Chop said:
Plenty of wheat producing land--check. Their ports mostly suck, and they're sooooooooooooooo far apart. Their Black Sea fleet is trapped in by the narrow straights through the Istanbul/Constantinople area. Their Baltic fleet is trapped in by the narrow straights through Denmark. That leaves the North and the Far East.

The rest of the world has its measures of superpower status. The Russians can live as emperors in their own heads, I suppose.
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Periodic reminder that Ukraine is the most corrupt country (excluding Russia) in Europe.
 
mchammer said:
Okay, so who cares if they take 1/3 of Ukraine?
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A really lousy precedent would be set, here in the 21st Century, that undermines the basic understanding between civilized nations going all the way back to the Treaty of Westphalia.

If we do revert back to a straight-up law of the jungle, might makes right, and the strong squashing the weak, we'll do pretty well, but is that really the world you want?
 
Chop said:
A really lousy precedent would be set, here in the 21st Century, that undermines the basic understanding between civilized nations going all the way back to the Treaty of Westphalia.

If we do revert back to a straight-up law of the jungle, might makes right, and the strong squashing the weak, we'll do pretty well, but is that really the world you want?
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Didn’t we have that before WW1 and WW2 (for Europe at least)? Not sure why that is sacrosanct to defend.
 
Chop said:
A really lousy precedent would be set, here in the 21st Century, that undermines the basic understanding between civilized nations going all the way back to the Treaty of Westphalia.

If we do revert back to a straight-up law of the jungle, might makes right, and the strong squashing the weak, we'll do pretty well, but is that really the world you want?
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Crimea voted to join Russia. How come that isn’t mentioned?
 
mchammer said:
Crimea voted to join Russia. How come that isn’t mentioned?
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So did Donbas. Some question the legitimacy of the election. I agree. But I question the legitimacy of the 2020 US Presidential election. Also, it was the Russian-speaking Donbas which voted in the Russian-leaning Yanukovych in 2014. So there is some corroboration of the results with history.
 
Latest I have heard is that Ukraine took about a mile in Bakhmut. It is unclear why, how, or if it is part of a bigger strategy. Some think it was a faint to attack with a bigger force somewhere else. Then the drone strikes in Russia started and there are some strange reports coming out of Belgorod in Russia. Fog of war is thick.

I did hear an interview with RFK Jr over the weekend where he says Ukraine has "lost" 300,000 troops. Don't know if that is casualties or deaths. This is what I have heard from others which contradicts the mainstream numbers for what it is worth.
 
Monahorns said:
Latest I have heard is that Ukraine took about a mile in Bakhmut. It is unclear why, how, or if it is part of a bigger strategy. Some think it was a faint to attack with a bigger force somewhere else. Then the drone strikes in Russia started and there are some strange reports coming out of Belgorod in Russia. Fog of war is thick.

I did hear an interview with RFK Jr over the weekend where he says Ukraine has "lost" 300,000 troops. Don't know if that is casualties or deaths. This is what I have heard from others which contradicts the mainstream numbers for what it is worth.
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Generally casualties are reported since those soldiers are out of commission for at least a significant period of time. It’s goes back to when number of soldiers mattered a lot more than today.
 
Reports in Ukraine have gone crazy today. Accusations of US-backed rebels in Belgorod starting an attack. There are many videos of Russian freedom fighters saying they want to remove Putin from power. Reports that Bakhmut did fall to Russia today. Also, that Ukraine started their attack on Sevastopol. Take all this with a grain of salt. Probably won't know exactly what is going on for a week or two. But something definitely going off today on both sides.
 
mchammer said:
Crimea voted to join Russia. How come that isn’t mentioned?
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How is that relevant in any way? If Douglas, Arizona voted to join Mexico, would we let them. NO! If Northern Maine voted to join Canada, would we let them? NO! It's well-established that borderlands don't get to secede, break off, and join a neighboring country.

The boundaries of modern nations are established. Neighbors cannot peel off pieces of neighboring states.
 
Chop said:
How is that relevant in any way? If Douglas, Arizona voted to join Mexico, would we let them. NO! If Northern Maine voted to join Canada, would we let them? NO! It's well-established that borderlands don't get to secede, break off, and join a neighboring country.

The boundaries of modern nations are established. Neighbors cannot peel off pieces of neighboring states.
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South Sudan says hello.
 
Chop said:
Now if we got Hobbs/Carlsbad/Clovis New Mexico, that might be worth it.
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Everywhere east of the Rio Grande in New Mexico was Texas anyway.

Go east and take Caddo and Bossier Parishes in Louisiana. Pick-up the casinos and another air force base.
 
Sangre Naranjada said:
But what if Texas wanted a nice slice of southern Oklaho.....

Oh, forget it. That's a really bad example.
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Yeah, the University of Texas at Norman just doesn't work well...
upload_2023-5-23_4-55-27.png
 
Back on topic. More reports that there are forces inside Russia attacking city of Belgorod. One side says these are Russian freedom fighters who don't like Putin. The other side says that this group is highly supported by NATO.

I tend to think they are both right.
 
So Wagner lost 20k and they were the victors??
I did like this line about the Russian Army taking over June 1
"If they [the army] cannot take over [the positions], then the persons concerned must shoot themselves," Prigozhin added. "
 
Monahorns said:
Mearsheimer has been correct on this issue since 2004.
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After the summer fighting season is over, I suspect the lines will be more or less set unless Russian wants another offensive next summer.

You have to ask if the average Ukrainian cares if they are ruled by corrupt Ukrainians or corrupt Russians.
 
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