This is the EU's worst nightmare. If the UK doesn't experience economic calamity, the so-called experts will be discredited, and other nations in the EU will start to wonder why they should NOT leave?
UK may vote to leave the European Union
- Thread starter Mr. Deez
- Start date
This is the EU's worst nightmare. If the UK doesn't experience economic calamity, the so-called experts will be discredited, and other nations in the EU will start to wonder why they should NOT leave?
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
This news is just as illogical as the original calamity. Afterall, UK is still in the EU and will be for a few more years. The stock market turmoil was expected simply because stock markets are highly volatile.
texas_ex2000
2,500+ Posts
SH, I have to disagree with you here.
Second, there was no expectation of market turmoil. The reason why you got "volatility" is because the markets bet that the UK would vote stay. It was a bet that investors positioned themselves for over a period of months. When the Brexit vote occurred, the market corrected itself, digested the news, sold off UK assets and the pound while they thought about what it meant, and now are buying again once they've had a month to analyze it. Like I said earlier in this thread right after the vote, the smart people are buying.
Markets are forward looking. M&A deals, which this article is using as a barometer, have even longer investment horizons than regular stock markets. Fundamentally, these deals are occurring because buyers are bullish on the UK.
First, I will say it's possible that some of this 800% increase may be attributed to scavenge buyers looking for cheap assets produced by the initial sell-off. But this is M&A, not the stock market...those deals don't happen just because the prices are low. They deal has to make sense strategically.
Second, there was no expectation of market turmoil. The reason why you got "volatility" is because the markets bet that the UK would vote stay. It was a bet that investors positioned themselves for over a period of months. When the Brexit vote occurred, the market corrected itself, digested the news, sold off UK assets and the pound while they thought about what it meant, and now are buying again once they've had a month to analyze it. Like I said earlier in this thread right after the vote, the smart people are buying.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
Now worries. I can take the feedback. I didn't read the initial article but assumed it pointed to sales. After reading it, it's even more laughable. Lies, damn lies and statistics. The 800% increase is due to a single transaction.
If a reader stopped after this passage they'd think "wholly moly" the UK economy is ON FIRE!
That 800% increase means deals are flying since Brexit. Except this next passage:
I don't know how many deals were included in the comparison month but do you think this deal skews that headline a little? Consider that Softbank leveraged the beaten down currency to get a better deal on the company. It also isn't a sign that Japan's Softbank is committed to Britain but rather they saw a bargain in a market in which they have a huge dependency on, mobile chips. Take out this single transaction and rather than an 800% increase they'd have experienced a 31% decrease. Of course, you and I both know that comparing month to month is absurd.
Oh...should I also mention that the Daily Express is a supporter of UKIP and it's owner was a financial backer for the party?
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texas_ex2000
2,500+ Posts
No...I don't think it's absurd. That's how M&A league tables are presented all the time. Don't believe me? Factset is where we get our M&A deal data. https://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/flashwire/flashwire_7.16 http://www.factset.com/mergerstat_em/europe/Europe_Flashwire_Quarterly.pdf
And here's another thing, you don't move 24 billion pounds in a M&A deal after a history changing economic event unless you believe in the long-term value. The fundamental driver behind buying low is that you feel the asset is mispriced - aka the pound is undervalued and that the UK is strong.
Any unbiased economist or investment analyst would say it's a good sign for the economy, not something to be qualified by an asterisk.
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SH, I don't doubt that the UK will pay an economic price for Brexit. I think most supporters would acknowledge that. The point of contention is really over how big the price will be. Supporters think it will be minor in compare to the benefits. The opponents to Brexit predicted severe economic calamity. If that was going to happen, we wouldn't have wait until Brexit occurs to see it coming. At least as things look now, the supporters look a lot better than the opponents.
The opponents of CCL predicted blood in the streets. They said the same thing about OC. Being wrong never deters them.
I'm reluctant to bash these judges because I don't know the relevant law. Does the UK authorize changes in its laws or invoking international treaties by referendum? I honestly don't know. Either way, there's an easy solution - convene the Parliament and have them ratify the vote of their constituents. If they won't do that, then they're the enemies of the people, not the judges. After all, Parliament is supposed to represent the people. The judiciary is supposed to follow the law as written.
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
Welcome to the hotel Californian. You can never leave.
Brad Austin
2,500+ Posts
Read up on it a little. This is what I came away with although it'll be rough.
The court ruled that "only Parliament has the sovereign right to make or unmake any law it chooses".
Using the American system of gov as an analogy...
Obama was going to invoke Article 50 and start the 2-year withdraw process without consultation or approval of Congress on the specifics.
It's a pretty big deal as they say a "hard" or "soft" Brexit can have vastly different impacts on all areas of everyday life.
There are many decisions to be made on the style of the Brexit which includes what specific relationships will be severed, altered, or retained. New border enforcement procedures. Etc. etc.
Without Congressional approval of the plan, Obama would have free reign to redesign the country's policies which would essentially transform the country however he saw fit.
The court basically said that's not how the constitution works. Congress will now legally require a detailed plan to be submitted, and they must vote in favor to proceed before Article 50 is enacted and actions begin.
It's not intended to reverse the referendum results (although intent doesn't prohibit consequences), but to provide a checks and balance on the specific Brexit actions. It's gonna cause heavy delays and massive debate and gridlock, but seems like a necessity.
Imagine if we were leaving the EU and Obama was given free reign to decide exactly how we'll do it and ALL the specific actions taken without Congress having a say. Just like our budget which effects many aspects of daily life, Congress must approve the specifics.
The court ruled that "only Parliament has the sovereign right to make or unmake any law it chooses".
Using the American system of gov as an analogy...
Obama was going to invoke Article 50 and start the 2-year withdraw process without consultation or approval of Congress on the specifics.
It's a pretty big deal as they say a "hard" or "soft" Brexit can have vastly different impacts on all areas of everyday life.
There are many decisions to be made on the style of the Brexit which includes what specific relationships will be severed, altered, or retained. New border enforcement procedures. Etc. etc.
Without Congressional approval of the plan, Obama would have free reign to redesign the country's policies which would essentially transform the country however he saw fit.
The court basically said that's not how the constitution works. Congress will now legally require a detailed plan to be submitted, and they must vote in favor to proceed before Article 50 is enacted and actions begin.
It's not intended to reverse the referendum results (although intent doesn't prohibit consequences), but to provide a checks and balance on the specific Brexit actions. It's gonna cause heavy delays and massive debate and gridlock, but seems like a necessity.
Imagine if we were leaving the EU and Obama was given free reign to decide exactly how we'll do it and ALL the specific actions taken without Congress having a say. Just like our budget which effects many aspects of daily life, Congress must approve the specifics.
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I looked a little bit at British law in comparative law classes at UT. I am by no means an expert. This court decision seems to be consistent with my rudimentary understanding of Great Britain's famous "unwritten constitution." Ultimately, power has been delegated to Parliament by the Queen. Parliament has the final say and is the ultimate decision maker for the Queen. Parliament called a national referendum and if they are going to be a democratic, representative body, I expect Parliament to abide by the results. Does Parliament decide on how and when Brexit will happen as Brad Austin discussed above? Absolutely. As long as Brexit happens, Parliament will have acted as a democratic and representative body.
I imagine there will be kicking and screaming. Any kicking, screaming or delays will still be better than most secessions or declarations of independence that end in bloody wars like the American Revolution, the Texas Revolution or the War Between the States.
I imagine there will be kicking and screaming. Any kicking, screaming or delays will still be better than most secessions or declarations of independence that end in bloody wars like the American Revolution, the Texas Revolution or the War Between the States.
Brad Austin
2,500+ Posts
Looks like there's a few more hairless poodles in the UK. 
Statalyzer
10,000+ Posts
Please tell me that's a photoshop.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
Doubtful. It's England. They love to steep their barristers and judges in tradition.
I'm a fan of the wigs.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
The UK unemployment rate falls to 4.8% post-Brexit
This is their highest employment rate on record
Like the recent US election, so much wrong, so much lying
http://order-order.com/2016/11/16/unemployment-falls-despitebrexit/
This is their highest employment rate on record
Like the recent US election, so much wrong, so much lying
http://order-order.com/2016/11/16/unemployment-falls-despitebrexit/
texas_ex2000
2,500+ Posts
It makes you wonder...
People were SHOCKED.
Polls (which are based on statistical science) said Brexit would lose.
Polls (which are based on statistics science) said Trump would lose.
Economists (a field awarded a Noble Prize) said the UK economy would collapse.
Economists (a field awarded a Noble Prize) said stock markets would crash if Trump won.
Not to mention all stuff the media reported that are supposedly facts, which - you know - wasn't.
Makes you wonder what other scientific things that could have been politicized we should ... ummm... take with a bit of skepticism. I know skepticism is a four-letter word nowadays in the scientific community, but scientists are humans and get things wrong sometimes.
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They are now saying it will happen later when the separation comes closer to reality.
The President of the European Commission doesn't want nations to hold referenda because he fears the outcome. Link.
Reading Juncker's comments one can see everything that's wrong with the EU. The response to Brexit and what's happening in Italy and France is to stop holding referenda - not to reform the EU. And the root of the problem isn't arrogance and corruption in Brussels. It's a lack of understanding among everyday people. Pathetic.
Reading Juncker's comments one can see everything that's wrong with the EU. The response to Brexit and what's happening in Italy and France is to stop holding referenda - not to reform the EU. And the root of the problem isn't arrogance and corruption in Brussels. It's a lack of understanding among everyday people. Pathetic.
Statalyzer
10,000+ Posts
So basically he's doing the nation-level equivalent of the Berlin Wall. "We won't change the problems that make you want to leave - we'll just make it impossible for you to leave."
Yep, and this is what makes the EU such a pathetic organization. They are unbelievably arrogant and truly think they shouldn't be questioned or have to answer to anybody. The general ideal of European integration isn't all bad, but they've taken it way too far and have given effectively unaccountable people far too much power to do it.
Tell him you know someone who voted for Trump.
Luck. A good friend of mine who was a delegate to the GOP convention met Farage in Cleveland. About a month ago, he asked if he could spend the long weekend in January at my place and do some beer tasting. (I'll pretty much always go along with such a request.)
He also said he'd like to visit the European Parliament and said he'd call Farage and see if he could arrange a meeting. Farage is obviously a busy guy, and we're both nobodys, so we didn't expect that he'd meet with us, but he asked anyway. Well, Farage remembered my friend and said he'd be happy to meet with us. I was very surprised and impressed.
The guy who arranged the meeting was a Trump supporter, and he knows I was a NeverTrumper.
ProdigalHorn
10,000+ Posts
You definitely need to give a rundown of what he has to say.
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