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....Sanders endorsed Clinton after she conspired against him and now two Republicans are evidently willing to become part of Trump's team after being humiliated. Go figure.
..... I’m the guy pushing a trillion-dollar infrastructure plan. With negative interest rates throughout the world, it’s the greatest opportunity to rebuild everything. Ship yards, iron works, get them all jacked up. We’re just going to throw it up against the wall and see if it sticks. ...”
Trump will make Mike Huckabee ambassador to Israel.
And move the US embassy to Jerusalem
ps - if you never been to Jerusalem, put it on your bucket list. Its quite remarkable
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ial-says-Governor-Huckabee-going-through.html
Well, look on the bright side - don't have to worry about Trump as president.Oh Geezus. Now we have an Evangelical trying to force the end times.![]()
It will be as exciting as the 1930s
Yeah, that was kind of an odd comparison. I'm afraid the 30's may be a foreshadowing of ugly times ahead.In what sense was the 1930s exciting? The US was in the Great Depression, and fascism was taking over Europe. That's not the kind of "excitement" we should be seeking.
Don't forget Japan invading China.In what sense was the 1930s exciting? The US was in the Great Depression, and fascism was taking over Europe. That's not the kind of "excitement" we should be seeking.
"Like [Andrew] Jackson's populism, we're going to build an entirely new political movement," he says. "It's everything related to jobs. The conservatives are going to go crazy. I'm the guy pushing a trillion-dollar infrastructure plan. With negative interest rates throughout the world, it's the greatest opportunity to rebuild everything. Ship yards, iron works, get them all jacked up. We're just going to throw it up against the wall and see if it sticks. It will be as exciting as the 1930s, greater than the Reagan revolution — conservatives, plus populists, in an economic nationalist movement."
I'm afraid once the spending ramps up, the interest rates will rise along with it. Now that the country is approaching $20 Trillion of debt, a significant rise in rates would kill any economic recovery.
Most likely, in order to hold down interest rates to accommodate the spending, the Fed will re-start a massive QE printing spree. That may hold rates down, but would it effect the strength of the dollar?
A weaker dollar wouldn't be a big deal in my opinion once the country is self-sufficient in terms of energy production. But if the shale miracle flops, we're screwed.
Theoretically, if you have a country that produces everything it needs, and you aren't dependent on buying goods outside of the country or making payments of debt denominated in other currencies to other countries, then your currency's strength relative to other countries doesn't matter. In fact, if you make products and EXPORT them to other countries, your industries will be more competitive.Please explain why a weaker dollar would have less effect once we are energy self sufficient.
Theoretically, if you have a country that produces everything it needs, and you aren't dependent on buying goods outside of the country or making payments of debt denominated in other currencies to other countries, then your currency's strength relative to other countries doesn't matter. In fact, if you make products and EXPORT them to other countries, your industries will be more competitive.
If however, we aren't energy dependent and have to buy oil from outside our borders, that oil becomes very expensive because the dollar is weak (especially if the exporting country decides to sell the oil in a currency other than the dollar). And since energy is a major cost in producing goods, it hurts your economy in many places; higher production costs, higher consumer prices, etc.
Good stuff! I'll limit my reply to your last paragraph which discusses getting our fiscal house in order. I think that has to begin with medical costs, specifically health care and the government entitlements Medicare/Medicaid. If we can't get that under control it all blows up. After that you have soaring defense costs that go with acting as the worlds policeman and the ongoing arms race. I can recognize the problems but can't envision solutions.You are correct about matching domestic consumption with production, but just correcting our trade deficit on oil won't do it. Even if the U.S. produced all of the goods we needed, there would still be an imbalance in trade due to a few other items (travel, etc.)
Oil imports are a small percentage of what we import (13%). Therefore, being energy independent still won't mean we are self reliant. The largest import is industrial machinery.
The assumption of the dollar being "weak" is not necessarily true, and varies from country to country, and, of course, over time.
The current, non-theoretical, situation, I believe, is as follows:
The U.S. $ is the foreign held by most foreign countries in reserve. The Euro is the second most held currency. It is estimated that 75% of all $100 bills, and 50% of all $50 bills are held by foreigners. This helps the U.S. a little because the U.S. $ is liquid (readily available), which reduces the dollar's fluctuation, and therefore decreases exchange risk.
Most international trading (invoicing and settlement) is done in US $ (The U.S.$ is present in about 90% of the trades in the foreign exchange market, and the euro is present in about 40%). Foreign countries the U.S. has paid, for goods the US has imported, try to avoid converting their US $ reserves to the local currency because the added demand for the local currency will increase its value relative to the dollar, which will decrease exports to the US because Americans will have to pay more for the products. (Example: a U.S. company wants to buy 100 sheets of melamine laden drywall from China. The trade will be invoiced and settled in dollars. The exchange rate ($U.S. vs RMB) moves against the dollar because somebody in China wants to convert their US$, received as payment for a prior transaction, to RMB's, and now the U.S. firm can only by 99 sheets of bad drywall).
The problem is that a weaker dollar makes dollar denominated assets less attractive to foreigners. The U.S. runs a steady trade deficit (i.e. a "current account deficit"). Overconsumption in the U.S. (i.e. U.S. imports in excess of U.S. exports) drives 2% the world's GDP. In order to finance the trade deficit (and the fiscal deficit), the U.S. sells securities. Guess who buys much of those securities? The same countries we are importing from (mostly China and other Asian countries). They use some of the profits from their trading with us to do so. It is odd that China buys our dollar denominated assets since the returns on investments in emerging markets like China are higher. Fortunately for the U.S., their financial markets are not well developed....yet.
Theory aside, at this point, other countries are dependent on us buying their products, and we are dependent on those same countries to finance our deficits (by buying our securities). If we reduce our trade imbalance by manufacturing more and/or exporting more, other countries suffer. If the other countries suffer, they won't buy as much of our exports, and they won't buy the securities we use to finance our deficits. Another problem is quantitative easing. If the US government is buying back bonds to increase the money supply, there are fewer bonds available to be sold.
It seems that the best strategy is to get our fiscal house in order so that we are not relying on foreigners to finance, partially, our fiscal deficit. That is the argument between Republicans and Democrats. Democrats want to pay for social programs by raising taxes. Doing so reduces productivity in the U.S. because the number of possible transactions that could/would take place in the economy are reduced and other transactions are less efficient. This results in less profitability and in a reduction in taxes paid to the Feds.
Please explain why a weaker dollar would have less effect once we are energy self sufficient.