SEC move timeline

MajorRules00 said:
24 makes the most sense. Buyouts to the Big 12 will be relatively low. And the payout from the SEC gets really high.
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This isn't accurate. The buy-out doesn't decrease over time. The buy-out is the final 2 years of conference distributions.

To exit prior to 2025, UT will have to negotiate a settlement for both the Big12 exit fees AND the grant of rights. If UT waits until 2025, only the exit fees will be in play. This is why I expect 2025 to be the most likely exit date.

Absent a negotiated settlement, the exit fee will be approximately $80 million.
 
Gladius&Pilum said:
This isn't accurate. The buy-out doesn't decrease over time. The buy-out is the final 2 years of conference distributions.

To exit prior to 2025, UT will have to negotiate a settlement for both the Big12 exit fees AND the grant of rights. If UT waits until 2025, only the exit fees will be in play. This is why I expect 2025 to be the most likely exit date.

Absent a negotiated settlement, the exit fee will be approximately $80 million.
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Semantics. My definition of buy-out includes GOR and exit fees. Logically, the amount of "harm" the Big 12 incurs with 1 year remaining on the GOR is less than the harm with 3 years remaining.

In any case, the use of the SEC logo makes me believe the settlement has already been negotiated.
 
MajorRules00 said:
Some of the twitter-verse are speculating the move date will be announced after march madness. They say that the appearance of the SEC logo in the video is a hint. And that the move could be imminent...
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FWIW, and I may have misunderstood, but in a YouTube video yesterday with IT interviewing CDC, it sounded like the use of the SEC logo was not significant. But who knows? CDC had a more specific explanation but I’m not motivated to go back and search for that portion of the video.
 
dukesteer said:
FWIW, and I may have misunderstood, but in a YouTube video yesterday with IT interviewing CDC, it sounded like the use of the SEC logo was not significant. But who knows? CDC had a more specific explanation but I’m not motivated to go back and search for that portion of the video.
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Certainly possible. Either way, I was pleasantly surprised by its inclusion.
 
Gladius&Pilum said:
This isn't accurate. The buy-out doesn't decrease over time. The buy-out is the final 2 years of conference distributions.

To exit prior to 2025, UT will have to negotiate a settlement for both the Big12 exit fees AND the grant of rights. If UT waits until 2025, only the exit fees will be in play. This is why I expect 2025 to be the most likely exit date.

Absent a negotiated settlement, the exit fee will be approximately $80 million.
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I read an article the other day and it made it sound like no matter when we leave the $80 million is for some kind of rights every Big XII team signed at the last contract for 99 years. I will see if I can find the article.

Found it
From the article
As of now, both schools have said publicly they plan to join the SEC when the Big 12’s current television rights agreement expires in July 2025. However, as Brown rightly notes, the teams will have to pay the roughly $80 million in exit fees regardless of if they leave in 2023 or 2025, as the members of the league agreed to a “99-year” grant of media rights in 2012.
 
militaryhorn said:
I read an article the other day and it made it sound like no matter when we leave the $80 million is for some kind of rights every Big XII team signed at the last contract for 99 years. I will see if I can find the article.

Found it
From the article
As of now, both schools have said publicly they plan to join the SEC when the Big 12’s current television rights agreement expires in July 2025. However, as Brown rightly notes, the teams will have to pay the roughly $80 million in exit fees regardless of if they leave in 2023 or 2025, as the members of the league agreed to a “99-year” grant of media rights in 2012.
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It's in the bylaws: https://static.big12sports.com/custompages/pdfs/handbook/bylaws.pdf

3.1Withdrawal.Notwithstanding the commitment of each Member set forth in Section 1.2.3 above, a Member may only withdraw from the Conference, cease to be a member in the Conference, or otherwise fail to fully participate in the activities of the Conference in contravention of its commitment to remain a Member in the Conference for such ninety-nine (99) year period (“Withdraws” or “Withdrawal”) by fully complying with the provisions of these Bylaws and by paying the Buyout Amount (as defined below). Each Member acknowledges and agrees that the Withdrawal of a Member and the payment of the Buyout Amount and implementation of the provisions of these Bylaws does not abrogate the obligations of such Withdrawing Member (as defined below) pursuant to that certain Amended and Restated Grant of Rights Agreement dated effective as of July 1, 2012, or any replacement or extension thereof or other agreement pursuant to which such Member grants the right to telecast some or all of
its sporting events to the Conference (a “Grant of Rights Agreement”). The Grant of Rights Agreement which will remain in full force and effect as to such Withdrawing Member and the Withdrawing Member shall continue to be fully bound under the Grant of Rights Agreement after Withdrawal for the remainder of the term of any Grant of Rights Agreement as if it remained a Member of the Conference, but the Withdrawing Member shall not be entitled to payment of any amounts or any other benefits arising under the Grant of Rights Agreement after Withdrawal.
 
militaryhorn said:
I read an article the other day and it made it sound like no matter when we leave the $80 million is for some kind of rights every Big XII team signed at the last contract for 99 years. I will see if I can find the article.

Found it
From the article
As of now, both schools have said publicly they plan to join the SEC when the Big 12’s current television rights agreement expires in July 2025. However, as Brown rightly notes, the teams will have to pay the roughly $80 million in exit fees regardless of if they leave in 2023 or 2025, as the members of the league agreed to a “99-year” grant of media rights in 2012.
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Thanks for posting. The end of the article is interesting as well. Because it references ESPN/ABC and LHN. I'm guessing that Disney doesn't want Texas appearing on CBS. In 2024, ESPN takes over complete broadcasting rights for the SEC. So it's logical that they would want Texas and OU to debut during their initial season of coverage.
 
MajorRules00 said:
Thanks for posting. The end of the article is interesting as well. Because it references ESPN/ABC and LHN. I'm guessing that Disney doesn't want Texas appearing on CBS. In 2024, ESPN takes over complete broadcasting rights for the SEC. So it's logical that they would want Texas and OU to debut during their initial season of coverage.
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I think Major is on the right track. In the grand scheme of things Disney is at least co-driving this bus if not paying for the gas and driving the bus.

Texas and ou will move over when Disney says to move. If the Big XII insists on a $160 million payment, Disney will politely try to work something out (i.e. payoff of $5 to $10 million to each of the 8 remaining Big XII schools plus a small increase in the rights fee). If the Big XII balks, Disney will just declare force manure on all existing contracts with the Big XII and not televise any Big XII athletics. This would leave a weakened Big XII to try to cut a deal with CBS/NBC/ Regional networks.
 
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Interesting tidbit from the C&D letter sent to ESPN:

The letter also states that ESPN is currently violating Section 20.2(c) of the Telecast Agreement with the Big 12 that states the network will not "take any actions likely to impair, or [that are] inconsistent with the rights of the league under the agreement."
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I wonder what other language is in that agreement? If the Big12 has ESPN over a barrel... :e-thinking:
 
The addition of 4 schools in 2023 is going to cut the buy-out from near $80 million to near $50 million. It's only a Pyrrhic victory though, as the bylaws require the forfeiture of the final two years of distributions. So, absent a settlement, UT and OU will go through the '23 and '24 athletic years without receiving any Big12 money. Each Big12 school is going to see their per school allotment drop with the addition of the 4 schools, but it will be offset for two seasons by getting a slice of UT and OU money.
 
Gladius&Pilum said:
The addition of 4 schools in 2023 is going to cut the buy-out from near $80 million to near $50 million. It's only a Pyrrhic victory though, as the bylaws require the forfeiture of the final two years of distributions. So, absent a settlement, UT and OU will go through the '23 and '24 athletic years without receiving any Big12 money. Each Big12 school is going to see their per school allotment drop with the addition of the 4 schools, but it will be offset for two seasons by getting a slice of UT and OU money.
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Money talks.
UT walks.
 
I_Dont_Exist said:
When?
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I predict that before the new schools come on board there will be a vote by the remaining 8 schools to vote UT and OU out of the conference effective June 30th, 2025. This will start the clock and the negotiations will heat up.

or (ii) if a Supermajority of Disinterested
Directors by affirmative vote determines that such Member: (A) makes statements
or takes actions that are determined by a Supermajority of Disinterested Directors to
evidence the intent of such Member to withdraw from the Conference either currently
or in the future
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Gladius&Pilum said:
Interesting tidbit from the C&D letter sent to ESPN:



I wonder what other language is in that agreement? If the Big12 has ESPN over a barrel... :e-thinking:
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The C&D letter was a brushback pitch by Bowlsby. The purpose was to prevent any further poaching of the conference. It was a necessary move to stabilize the B12 so that replacement members could be found.

It's doubtful that the B12 has any leverage over ESPN. The opposite is likely true: the Big 12 needs a solid relationship with ESPN. Especially since all tv deals for the league expire in '25.

Notice how quiet things got after the UT/OU annoucement/c&d letter. I suspect that there's been a concerted effort by the league to mend fences behind the scenes. And position the New Big 12 to get the best possible deals for the next contract period.
 
I_Dont_Exist said:
When?
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Well, if it were up to me UT is is playing an SEC schedule in 2023.
But it's not up to me.
I also tend to forget that the SEC will also have to update/reschedule their entire season whenever we enter.
It just seems weird to me that we play beyond the 2022 season after announcing our departure.
 
moondog_LFZ said:
Well, if it were up to me UT is is playing an SEC schedule in 2023.
But it's not up to me.
I also tend to forget that the SEC will also have to update/reschedule their entire season whenever we enter.
It just seems weird to me that we play beyond the 2022 season after announcing our departure.
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I believe announcing in 2022 was never the plan. The plan was to line up landing spots for 4 or more schools and then announce all 6 leaving at once. The hope being the conference would fold and eliminate the pesky buy-out and GOR.

Alas it wasn't to be. Now the Big12 has had time to rally the troops and even claims to have dirt on ESPN. Will be very interesting to watch this play out.
 
I_Dont_Exist said:
When?
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moondog_LFZ said:
Well, if it were up to me UT is is playing an SEC schedule in 2023.
But it's not up to me.
I also tend to forget that the SEC will also have to update/reschedule their entire season whenever we enter.
It just seems weird to me that we play beyond the 2022 season after announcing our departure.
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I'd enjoy seeing the New Big 12 get going ASAP. Hanging on to the past usually doesn't help build a future. And that's what the B12 needs to focus on. Especially with Media deals coming up in '25.
 
MajorRules00 said:
The C&D letter was a brushback pitch by Bowlsby. The purpose was to prevent any further poaching of the conference. It was a necessary move to stabilize the B12 so that replacement members could be found.

It's doubtful that the B12 has any leverage over ESPN. The opposite is likely true: the Big 12 needs a solid relationship with ESPN. Especially since all tv deals for the league expire in '25.

Notice how quiet things got after the UT/OU annoucement/c&d letter. I suspect that there's been a concerted effort by the league to mend fences behind the scenes. And position the New Big 12 to get the best possible deals for the next contract period.
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If the Big12 had no dirt on ESPN the C&D wouldn't have had any effect. The fact that things got so quiet right after the C&D tells us ESPN saw legal jeopardy and had to throttle down to avoid litigation. Otherwise the WWL would have just powered through to the goal.

That 2025 media rights deal will be an interesting negotiation.
 
Gladius&Pilum said:
If the Big12 had no dirt on ESPN the C&D wouldn't have had any effect. The fact that things got so quiet right after the C&D tells us ESPN saw legal jeopardy and had to throttle down to avoid litigation. Otherwise the WWL would have just powered through to the goal.

That 2025 media rights deal will be an interesting negotiation.
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The C&D letter had little to do with ESPN. Its purpose was to dissuade the PAC and B1G from further poaching of the Big 12. Because, had that happened, the league would have fallen apart.

If you recall, ESPN responded to Bowlsby's brushback with a letter of their own. In it, they denied any wrongdoing. Later, "Bowlsby said that he suspects ESPN was involved behind the scenes when Texas and Oklahoma were in discussions with the SEC but added that he has no proof of that. "This whole thing has been a complete articulation of deception," he said."

So to suggest Bowlsby, who remained unaware of UT and OU's move until the MSM broke the story, somehow has "dirt" on ESPN is a stretch. A more likely explanation for the lull is that the PAC/B1G decided to hold off on expansion until the GOR ends.
 
MajorRules00 said:
The C&D letter had little to do with ESPN. Its purpose was to dissuade the PAC and B1G from further poaching of the Big 12. Because, had that happened, the league would have fallen apart.

If you recall, ESPN responded to Bowlsby's brushback with a letter of their own. In it, they denied any wrongdoing. Later, "Bowlsby said that he suspects ESPN was involved behind the scenes when Texas and Oklahoma were in discussions with the SEC but added that he has no proof of that. "This whole thing has been a complete articulation of deception," he said."

So to suggest Bowlsby, who remained unaware of UT and OU's move until the MSM broke the story, somehow has "dirt" on ESPN is a stretch. A more likely explanation for the lull is that the PAC/B1G decided to hold off on expansion until the GOR ends.
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Bowlsby's scorched earth plan. Most do not accomplish what was intended outside of Sherman's scorched earth march to the sea, and the Russians fall back to Stalingrad. ESPN could have directly told him what was going on, but Bowlsby's hand was so weak that all he could do was cry in public.

The more interesting exchange would have been if Texas and ou had told the $EC, "we would love to join your over-hyped group, but not as long as aggy is part of the group."
 
With the news that Bowlsby has resigned, I'll give him credit for two moves:

1) The brushback letter to ESPN
2) Picking up Cincy, UH, UCF and BYU

Both of which kept the conference intact. Ultimately, though, I think it's too little too late.
 
MajorRules00 said:
The C&D letter had little to do with ESPN. Its purpose was to dissuade the PAC and B1G from further poaching of the Big 12. Because, had that happened, the league would have fallen apart.

If you recall, ESPN responded to Bowlsby's brushback with a letter of their own. In it, they denied any wrongdoing. Later, "Bowlsby said that he suspects ESPN was involved behind the scenes when Texas and Oklahoma were in discussions with the SEC but added that he has no proof of that. "This whole thing has been a complete articulation of deception," he said."

So to suggest Bowlsby, who remained unaware of UT and OU's move until the MSM broke the story, somehow has "dirt" on ESPN is a stretch. A more likely explanation for the lull is that the PAC/B1G decided to hold off on expansion until the GOR ends.
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Maybe. But Bowlsby's C&D wasn't in regard to UT & OU. It was about ESPN trying to get some of the smaller fish to join the AAC. Get enough small fries to agree to exit and when added to UT & OU you can reach a critical mass where the Big12 implodes and the GOR isn't an issue. As for ESPN's denial, did you expect a confession?

As for P5's poaching the Big12, there isn't much meat left on that bone. KU has an iconic basketball team. But outside that, only OU and UT have any real value in the realignment market. Of course that's a big reason why the Big12 media partners had little appetite for renegotiating the TV rights package.

As for too little too late, that really isn't Bowlsby's fault either. Back when the Big12 was looking at expansion the media partners refused to increase the payout for any of the schools considered. There's no way the schools would have added members if it meant a drop in revenue distribution. Now that the Big12 is faced with adding teams or dissolving, the loss in revenue is viewed as the lesser of two evils. $20 million per year is way better than $7 million.
 
Gladius&Pilum said:
As for P5's poaching the Big12, there isn't much meat left on that bone. KU has an iconic basketball team. But outside that, only OU and UT have any real value in the realignment market. Of course that's a big reason why the Big12 media partners had little appetite for renegotiating the TV rights package.
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I'm not so sure about that.

Texas and OU were outstanding, blue-chip additions. With those two schools, the SEC is truly a superconference. On brand value alone, they can stay at 16 for a long time and rake in the dough.

But the B1G and PAC have different strategies. They don't need to add blue bloods to expand the value of their product. Especially if football is what's driving the realignment train.
 
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