Official Presidential/Senate/House Game Thread
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Horn2RunAgain
2,500+ Posts
Biden Time, should be a new tee shirt. He won't see the WH again after spring 2021
They haven't been too dumb for the 50 or so years that they had voted Republican, but they're too dumb now. But it has nothing to do with Trump acting like a disorganized jackass and has everything to do with the media that has been partisan and biased toward Democrats since 1932.
Nevertheless, you sorta dodged the issue (perhaps unintentionally). When I asked if it didn't matter, I wasn't asking if it made a difference. Of course media activity makes a difference. My point is that it doesn't matter to the electoral math. We need to find a way to attract those voters better than Trump did whether the media is hostile or not. It can be done. We've done it before many times. These voters were part of our base 10 minutes ago.
Willie Brown was crooked as hell, but I can't help but like the guy for how "unpolitician" he was about Kamala Harris. Most politicians would have denied the allegation since it couldn't be proven by anyone but them. Instead, he basically said, "yeah I banged her and got her jobs. I did that kind of crap all the time." The honesty was refreshing.
And of course, what Willie Brown did for Kamala Harris (trade cushy government appointments for sex) happens everyday in politics. I knew dozens Kamala Harrises when I worked in politics - chicks who were looking to nail powerful men for advancement. Some of them found their Willie Browns. Most of them didn't. They just ended up banging dirty old men and getting nothing for it but shame. And that's the big dilemma. There are far more skanks willing to bang powerful men than there are openings on boards and commissions.
Kamala banged the right powerful man and must have made a big impression on him since I'm sure he had a friggin harem of skanks, and they aren't US senators and VP-elects today. Maybe she tickled his *** the right way.
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It's because he made a serious pitch to them, and it resonated with a significant number of them. That's a good thing. The problem is that a small reduction in support with white voters will hurt you more than even a pretty substantial increase in support from minorites can help you. Keep in mind that we call them "minorities" for a reason.
You'll recall the analysis on Romney. People initially blamed his loss on a poor performance with Hispanics, but further analysis showed that he would have needed to do dramatically better (better than any Republican had ever done) to make a difference. It's because of the demographic percentages. We simply can't afford to lose support with white voters, and if we do lose some, getting 12 percent of the black vote (which is excellent for Republican) isn't going to be anywhere near enough.
Personally, I'd like to win Georgia again. I'd like to win Arizona again. I'd like to keep Texas red. I don't expect to win California and New York again anytime soon, but I'd rather not give the Democrats all 80 of their House seats. Well, learning to win in the suburbs and white professionals again while also making gains with moderate and conservative minorites is the key to all of that.
WillUSAF
500+ Posts
We all know that the MSM is not factual on a large scale. But I do believe his personality had much to do with his loss. I think back to 2016. We got a little taste of Trump during the debates and realized that he was different. It was a little refreshing at the time. When he got the nomination it became a no brainer to vote for him. It was a vote for him or a vote for Clinton. She was the most disgusting candidate every to run for President (I would have voted for Ralph Nadar before her). So many people across this country did not trust her (still don't) and had complete distain for her. So Trump was the best candidate in 2016.
This year, after almost 4 years of Trump's tweets, childish remarks and IMO lack of leadership people came to have the same distain for Trump as they had for Clinton (while not as much). Not looking at policy so much many people voted for normalcy back in the Presidency. Biden, while not an ideal candidate himself, will bring back the status quo of a President. If you look at what Trump did in his 4 years he probably did more than any other President in history. You can't argue the policy points. It, to me, is personality. As all of you here know I HATE TRUMP. But I voted for him. I swallowed my ego and voted for policy (and was hoping for a mute button for him) but again I truly feel like the votes that Republicans lost were due to HIM. Period.
I think this is all true, but I think Trump's absurd and very confused Covid messaging hurt him as well and was likely decisive. When there's a national emergency or crisis, people want stability and consistency from their leadership. In actions, the federal government actually was pretty stable and consistent. But on messaging, Trump was all over the place.
What would WWII have looked like with Trump-style rhetoric? We would have done the same things, but FDR would have been making public statements that he wanted to fire General Eisenhower and Admiral Nimitz every few weeks. For shits and giggles, he would have said things like, "the Nazis and Japanese just aren't that dangerous. Why are we freaking out?" Or, "I'm not happy with Mr. Churchill. Perhaps instead of doing D-Day, we should turn the tables and help Germany invade the UK. They might appreciate us more." Might that have made a difference in the 1944 election? Good chance it would have.
And what's sad is that big national crises are almost always a boost to the incumbent, because they get a chance to show off and foster unity and cohesion. It's why the Democrats initially downplayed Covid more than Trump did. (It's also why nobody knows who the hell Wendell Wilkie and Alf Landon are.) If you're an incumbent, you have to **** up badly to turn a crisis into a liability.
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Could you give me an example of mixed messaging in regards to Covid? The only place that i could see where he did this was saying that we had enough tests when we didn't have enough at the beginning.
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Regardless of what happens I'm still pleased Trump won 2016. I don't think Kasich or any other Republican could have beat Clinton because of the Rust Belt. With Virginia going blue since 2008 the only way to win for Republicans is to get the Rust Belt States.
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If this result holds up, I imagine a huge sweep of Red in Congress in 2 years when the dolts who voted these buffoons in see what they got.
If white males knew in advance that a Trump victory would have been blamed (rightly) on increased minority support instead of them, they would have voted for Trump in similar numbers as 2016. White male support fell due to media coercion and brainwashing.
So what do you do about that?
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Yes. No one else could have won in 2016 except Trump (I also think that only Clinton would have lost to Trump - their high negatives served to help Trump).
Let's war game a Clinton win in 2016. SC gone - some leftist instead of Gorsuch would have given then a 5-4 margin, plus the Coward John Roberts, so it's off to the races for a full remake of the country's laws, via judicial decree. Go back and look at some of the writings by leftist during that time for what they wanted the SC to do via decree.
Not sure if Kennedy retires in 2018 or not, he looked ancient even then, so maybe he still does. So then it's a 6-3 court plus the Coward, so that's lost for the foreseeable future.
12 years of un-interrupted leftist rule would have solidified the direction of the country, and the polices. The economy would have muddled along as it did under Omama, would have kept the same bad trade deals as we had, plus signed up to the Trans Pacific Pact, which would have been even worse in terms of back room deals, and no, it would not have created a unified front against China.
Then the Wuhan would have sealed Clinton's re-election. Just look at how the media fluffed up Cumomo's response in NY compared to say DeSantis in FLA, where they had a fraction of the death rate as New York, yet Cumomo gets to be interviewed by his brother with big Q-tips as prop gags.
The media would have billed Clinton's handling of the Wuhan, whatever it actaully was in difference to Trumps (if any) as they Best Thing Ever! So an easy path to re-election, and 4 more years of her.
Trump helped the transition of the Republican party from the party of the rich, who were leaving the party long before he got onto the scene, into the party of the middle class and working class.
Even if he losses re-election due to vote by mail fraud and other tricks, he's accomplished a great deal for the party, and for the country, and conservatives owe him a debt of graditute for running and serving as president.
I would have voted for any Republican except Trump in 2016 because I would not have voted for Hillary against anybody. I know a bunch of Texas Dems who felt the same.
In 2016 I think the professional class (mostly white) talked like they hated Trump but voted for him private. In 2020, I think they talked how they like his policies etc but didn’t vote for him in private. I am convinced they did so (possibly in 2016 too) because they thought Trump was going to lose anyway and their vote ultimately didn’t matter. Possibly the suppression polls backfired in 2016. Regardless Trump had a record in 2020 that he didn’t have in 2016, which makes the two races not comparable.
There is nothing you can do about it. The reasoning of these voters will backfire spectacularly if Dems win GA senate races (but for now assume that will not be the case). Dems lost a lot of elections in 2008-2016 when Obama wasn’t on the ballot due to unpopular policies. Dem party is more out of touch now than 2008-2016. I think there is already regret from folks who now know they caused the loss of the presidency. Maybe they can see through the media BS the next time they demonize the GOP candidate. Know which generation had the highest support for Trump? Gen X - the most cynical of them all.
These are the folks who caused Trump to lose.
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Remember this when you read about the allegedly accurate Cook Report.
A magic 8 ball would have done better.
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
All part of the shift to the Democrat party being that of the poor and rich, while the middle class votes Republican, increasingly regardless of race.
Would be interesting to see the percent black and Hispanic vote to Trump, from those neither on welfare, nor 500 grand plus a year salary. Bet it's far higher than the overall percentage numbers.
Would be interesting to see the percent black and Hispanic vote to Trump, from those neither on welfare, nor 500 grand plus a year salary. Bet it's far higher than the overall percentage numbers.
I honestly don't even know what this means. Serious taint slippage here.
But...but....but.... Trump will destroy the Republican party! Republicans solidify grip on state legislatures, which is likely to lead to redistricting and gerrymandering efforts in 2021
LULZ. AOC finds she is expendable after Trump is defeated. Establishment Dems want grift, not socialism. Silly her.
AOC vs. DNC: Ocasio-Cortez Threatens To Quit Politics, Slams "Hostile" Dems For Not Being Progressive Enough
AOC vs. DNC: Ocasio-Cortez Threatens To Quit Politics, Slams "Hostile" Dems For Not Being Progressive Enough
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