Official Presidential/Senate/House Game Thread

mchammer said:
Due to the polls or the large amount of unsolicited mail-in ballots? If the latter, yes. I was hopeful Trump would have a big enough lead for it not to matter. Apparently it matters now and I didn’t discount this going into yesterday. As for the former, I was expecting wins in AZ, very close race in NV (possible win), and one of PA-MI-WI-MN. FL-OH-IA-TX went as expected for me. Didn’t think GA-NC would be this close. And I figured Trump would win 1 or 2 of the upper Midwest states by 1%. Regardless who wins, I say the results fell between our two positions.
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I honestly don't have any idea. There's no question that the pollsters got a lot of this wrong and sometimes woefully so. The pollsters who predicted that Biden would take Wisconsin by 17 points should basically never work again. Hell, New York was closer than that. (In fact, I'm somewhat curious as to why Democrats went from winning New York by 22 points in 2016 to winning by 12 in 2020. It's still a decisive win, but that's a big shift in 4 years.)

Either way, I think I got this about right - very, very close in a lot of states (both purple and red). Could Trump still pull it out? Sure. There's going to be litigation, and Arizona apparently has moved back into play. However, at this point, I'd rather be Biden than Trump.

With Trump we've basically decided we wanted to find out how badly we can **** up and still win. We're about to find out.
 
Mr. Deez said:
I honestly don't have any idea. There's no question that the pollsters got a lot of this wrong and sometimes woefully so. The pollsters who predicted that Biden would take Wisconsin by 17 points should basically never work again. Hell, New York was closer than that. (In fact, I'm somewhat curious as to why Democrats went from winning New York by 22 points in 2016 to winning by 12 in 2020. It's still a decisive win, but that's a big shift in 4 years.)

Either way, I think I got this about right - very, very close in a lot of states (both purple and red). Could Trump still pull it out? Sure. There's going to be litigation, and Arizona apparently has moved back into play. However, at this point, I'd rather be Biden than Trump.

With Trump we've basically decided we wanted to find out how badly we can **** up and still win. We're about to find out.
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NY has a lot of backlash against Cuomo for coronavirus and the Dem cronyism that's been unchecked for a while. Kind of like when Illinois had their little red wave when Rod was governor.
 
Covid
Recession
Media propaganda
Constant frivolous investigations

These probably had more to do with Trump having difficulty winning that anything else. No president could have survived this. Not even Reagan.
 
Horns11 said:
NY has a lot of backlash against Cuomo for coronavirus and the Dem cronyism that's been unchecked for a while. Kind of like when Illinois had their little red wave when Rod was governor.
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Really? That's surprising, because all I've read is that Cuomo's approval ratings are through the roof. I guess that's not entirely accurate.
 
Chop said:
Oil and gas and other industries probably don't have too much to worry about if Biden takes the presidency. The Green New Deal never was Biden's pet project. Moreover, Biden has a long history of being bought and sold (and ultimately controlled) by large industries (pharma, insurance, banking, auto, chemicals, etc.). Kamala is the wild card that could screw a lot of stuff up.
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As long as the Republicans hold the Senate, it will prevent that abortion of a bill from passing. I could see a red wave in 2022 where Republicans take the House. 2024 becomes very interesting as I doubt Biden will be physically capable of running again. Kamala is the heir apparent but a truly awful POTUS candidate. Would Trump run again? Going to be an interesting 4 years.
 
UTChE96 said:
As long as the Republicans hold the Senate, it will prevent that abortion of a bill from passing. I could see a red wave in 2022 where Republicans take the House. 2024 becomes very interesting as I doubt Biden will be physically capable of running again. Kamala is the heir apparent but a truly awful POTUS candidate. Would Trump run again? Going to be an interesting 4 years.
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Honestly, there is some upside to a Biden victory. If he wins, congressional Republicans will care about the deficit again.
 
Garmel said:
Covid
Recession
Media propaganda
Constant frivolous investigations

These probably had more to do with Trump having difficulty winning that anything else. No president could have survived this. Not even Reagan.
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Please add impeachment to your list. Thanks
 
With a Harris, Biden, Bernie and the squad win*. It really makes me very sad that my grandkids will have to pay for all their $hit.:cursing2:
 
UTChE96 said:
2024 becomes very interesting as I doubt Biden will be physically capable of running again. Kamala is the heir apparent but a truly awful POTUS candidate.
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She has already shown that she's a terrible Presidential candidate. If Kamala is the Democratic nominee in 2024, it would be a GOP landslide.
 
I have a theory that Trump is winning NV and NV officials are holding out because a Trump win in NV will focus all attention on PA (which they don’t want).
 
UTChE96 said:
Agreed. I suspect she would not get the nomination but one can dream.
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Since she'll likely be the incumbent president, I think it'll be in pretty hard to oppose her in the primary. I do think she'd be easy to beat in a general election.
 
EDT said:
With a Harris, Biden, Bernie and the squad win*. It really makes me very sad that my grandkids will have to pay for all their $hit.:cursing2:
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Your grandkids are going to have to pay for all of trump's $hit first.
 
Garmel said:
Covid
Recession
Media propaganda
Constant frivolous investigations

These probably had more to do with Trump having difficulty winning that anything else. No president could have survived this. Not even Reagan.
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We'll never know the full effect of the media's blatant manipulation...hard to measure.
I believe it is safe to say, if the media were more even handed, this election, along with many other things in this country, would be going quite differently.
In my view the clear bias and obvious lack of media integrity is one of the most destructive and dangerous influences in our country today...cannot be overstated. Information and the dissemination of information is power....and is especially effective with a large portion of the population who is more suspect to manipulation.
 
RainH2burntO said:
We'll never know the full effect of the media's blatant manipulation...hard to measure.
I believe it is safe to say, if the media were more even handed, this election, along with many other things in this country, would be going quite differently.
In my view the clear bias and obvious lack of media integrity is one of the most destructive and dangerous influences in our country today...cannot be overstated. Information and the dissemination of information is power....and is especially effective with a large portion of the population who is more suspect to manipulation.
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No doubt. If Trump was the democrat and Biden was the republican with everything else being equal (personality, corruption, etc..) Trump would have won by a landslide and Biden would have been destroyed by the media.
 
@Mr. Deez


In fact, Trump has won more votes than GOP Senate candidates in almost every state.

Here are the vote totals (as of this afternoon, according to Decision Desk HQ) for GOP Senate candidates and Trump in the six states where the pre-election polls showed a competitive race for both the presidency and the Senate:

Michigan:

Trump: 2,640,185

James: 2,633,014



Arizona:

Trump: 1,402,431

McSally: 1,383,947



Georgia

Trump: 2,438,206:

Perdue: 2,439,193



North Carolina:

Trump: 2,732,084

Tillis: 2,640,381



Iowa:

Trump: 896,294

Ernst: 864,113



Texas:

Trump: 5,866,712

Cornyn: 5,931,119



The same pattern plays out in red states where polls only showed close Senate races (but ended up being blowouts):

Montana:

Trump: 320,682

Daines: 310,924



South Carolina:

Trump: 1,362,954

Graham: 1,347,167

In two blue states where incumbent Republican senators were running, one Republican lost while the other Republican won:

Colorado:

Trump: 1,305,460

Gardner: 1,367,685



Maine:

Trump: 356,182

Collins: 412,217

It’s not surprising that Susan Collins was the only Republican Senate candidate in the country to run far ahead of Trump. In 2008, she ran 40 points (on net) ahead of John McCain. In 2016, she’s running 19 points (on net) ahead of Trump.
 
Seems like Trump can take credit for getting people to the polls. GOP maybe only 4-5 seats short of majority in House.
 
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