North pole to melt this year?

As I recall mop, we have been down this rabbit trail before. There were no "projections" in AR1 and Mr. Best basically made them up. We can, however, look at what Hansen did in 1981.

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there may not have been "projections" but there were "scenarios" which is in essence the same thing. The Policy maker's Summary as well as the Chapter 1 both look at those scenarios. From those you see a doubling of CO2 by between 2025-2050. We also see a corresponding temperature increase of between 1.5 Celsius and 4.5 Celsius corresponding with that doubling of CO2. Based on other known assumptions about the rate of temperature rise one can expect due to the logarithmic effect of CO2 on energy retention/temperature increase, it is not hard to extrapolate reasonably Best's projections.

But James Hansen's predictions from 1980 seem hardly applicable as he was only 9 years hence predicting an impending Ice Age (he did this in 1971). I am not at all surprised that it took him a while to really get his hype going.
 
Paso, has there been statistically significant warming in the past 15 years as you claimed (and then contradicted) or does it take 17 years to get a baseline on statistical significance? Man, you sure like to cover ALL of your bases. In this case you are covering one base twice. Quite convenient!
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Is there statistically significant warming on the combined data sets over the last 15 years when you remove the noise?

And the actual claim (made by you) was that the last 15 years temperature trends were flat. We know this is false.

I also have always stated that trend is what matters.

What is the trend?
 
ENSO is noise. In addition to the reasons contained over the last 5 or 6 pages, ocean temperature is external to air temperature. Maybe you should peer review papers because you obviously know more than the people writing, reviewing, and publishing the papers.

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I guess before I could know ENSO is noise or not I would want to see the temperature data with and without. If the slope of the trendline is the same with and without, then I could conclude that in fact ENSO is just noise and removing doesn't change the signal. It merely makes it easier to isolate. However, if the other is true I couldn't consider it noise because it would actually be part of the signal.
 
This is exactly why ENSO is noise. If you look at the 30 year trend, the signal is robust. If you shorten the time frame, ENSO can distort the trend (up and down). I linked a paper on this twice over the past five or six pages.
 
meanwhile, globally January through March of this year was the coldest since 1996 (that's 16 years ago for the math challenged). I only mention it because some people on these boards were pointing to heat records in the US (which is slightly less than 2% of the surface of the earth), but missed the fact that the entire globe was actually the coolest it has been since 1996. Looking at April leads me to believe that with 30% of this year's temperatures in there is little to no chance that this year won't continue the 15 year trend I have been mentioning. Just to remind everyone, since Paso seems convinced I shouldn't have used the word "flat", this is what I have been talking about:

HadCrut3 15 year trend

look how "not" flat that is!!! (sarc)
 
i have consistently used HadCrut 3 throughout this entire exchange. Having said that, I also just don't know a lot about the 4 series. I know it is relatively new and want to hear more about it before I lean on it too much. I already have serious reservations about HadCrut 3 and would prefer to use RSS (which shows cooling over the same time period) and UAH (which shows warming over the same time period).
 
BI, why even mention the temperature on one infinitesimally small place on the earth. Do you actually think that means anything? I wasn't sure if it was meant as a joke, but it seemed like you were actually serious.
 
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