North pole to melt this year?

A powerful spring storm dumped snow across parts of the Northeast overnight -- including around a foot in at least three places -- and cut power to more than 75,000 customers in Pennsylvania and upstate New York, with more snow expected overnight.

"Winter storm warnings are in effect from the higher elevations of West Virginia northward to western New York," the National Weather Service stated.

Most of the snow was falling across upstate New York, West Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania, where the weather service predicted the heaviest snowfall "of over an inch per hour" would occur through midday Monday.


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ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) – A spring snowfall has broken the nearly 60-year-old seasonal snow record of Alaska's largest city.


By Bob Hallinen, AP

Inundated with nearly double the snow they're used to, Anchorage residents have been expecting to see this season's snowfall surpass the record of 132.6 inches set in the winter of 1954-55.

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Cold weather kills more than 220 in Europe; Danube freezes over ...
news.nationalpost.com/2012/.../cold-weather-kills-more-than-... - Canada
Feb 3, 2012 – KIEV — Temperatures fell to record lows across Europe as a week-long cold snap continues, claiming more than 220 lives with forecasters...
 
whew Bevo, I am glad you are just having fun. I was getting worried about you. You and I often disagree but you seem at least reasonable and truly open minded (unlike most who say they are!).
 
I admit that I am no expert on the subject, which is why I have to have random factoids (like it was 104 yesterday in San Angelo) to generate mental pegs for me to grab hold of.

I definitely think that the planet is getting warmer, though. The heat in the midwest this winter was historically unprecedented.
 
think of it this way Bevo, if you split the world into 150 parts, then it is reasonable that every year a few of those parts would have extreme warm records while a few would have extreme cold records. Our global records only go back about 100 years, so "all time records" are actually usually only "century" records. There are a few places with longer records, but you get the idea. So while the "heat in the midwest" was "unprecedented" this winter, we were simultaneously experiencing the coolest global Jan-March temperatures since 1996. We have certainly lived in a warming world since at least 1850 (maybe 1800?) , so it is even more reasonable to expect more warm records than cool records. Why is this a big deal unless the warming begins to happen more rapidly than we have seen before. But 1910-1940 is not less dramatic than 1980-2010, so as of yet we haven't really seen anything that is outside natural variation.
 
What happened in March is a game changer, much like 2007 Arctic sea ice melt. Thinking anything else is denial.

The records that were broken were so dramatic that they were way out of the normal variation expected when records are broken.

Some of the records had likely never occurred, i.e. weather stations breaking their record high daily temp with their LOW temp of the day.
 
It's strange how whenever the records are warm they suddenly become "game changers" but when they are cold, they are just "weather." Can you explain this discrepancy Texoz?

What about 2 winters ago when England had some temperatures that were 2rd coldest December on record going back to 1650? Does that count as "just noise" or is that a "game changer?"

From Wikipedia:

In reply to:
Click to expand...
 
Who lacks perspective? Tell me which area is larger, Eurasia or part of the US?

Cold weather kills more than 220 in Europe; Danube freezes over ...
news.nationalpost.com/2012/.../cold-weather-kills-more-than-... - Canada
Feb 3, 2012 – KIEV — Temperatures fell to record lows across Europe as a week-long cold snap continues, claiming more than 220 lives with forecasters...
 
so what GT is actually referring to is an attempt AFTER THE FACT by models to explain what has been actually flying in the face of their predictions? ah, ok!

see the problem with models is that they are always evolving, so that no matter what happens someone will plug it into the models and see how this fits. Sure enough, they will find some way it fits since it has now been crammed into their "model" and next thing you know we will get a wave of news articles claiming this is what the models are predicted.

I understand the need to take new events and put them into a model to improve the model. but this is precisely what makes them rubbish until they get some sort of a track record. Find me some climate models predicting cooling in Europe that predate 2007 for example. What percentage of the models were predicting cooling in the IPCC AR4 report for example?

The fact that GT would even try to make that argument shows how utterly shoddy this whole discussion is. Seriously? Come on GT, you can do better than that. Aren't you supposed to be a scientist? I challenge you to show us that "most climate models" were predicting European cooling before the past 5 years. You and I (and everyone reading this thread) knows that this was a line of pure baloney based upon VERY RECENT models that have adjusted to the recent VERY COLD European winters we have experienced.
 
ha, Bronco, I ended up at the exact same place as you:

AR4 IPCC (2007) report on European expectations

If that's what the IPCC 4 AR4 said, then where does GT get off claiming that "all the models" are saying a cooling Europe is to be expected???

GT, cheer up! Even though we are bashing you hard for this latest blunder, you probably have a good career in front of you if you can tie some of your work into climate change catastrophe! I hear (that is i KNOW) there is TONS Of money available for people willing to tow the party line on this!
 
Bronco, you are obviously confusing me with another poster. I do not believe that I have ever posted about a particular weather event being "caused" by global warming. It does make some of them more likely. To the best of my knowledge, the climate models do predict a colder Europe in the winter although not a colder earth or Europe overall. Certainly, I am not one to speak for GT WT, but I believe this is what he is referencing. The feigned confusion by the "skeptics" is pretty annoying although perhaps you guys are just Otto.
 
GT, I am still eager to see you back up your claim about all the climate models predicting colder European winters. I think it is fair of us to expect some pre-2007 models predicting that because the cold winters we have experienced over the past 5 or 6 years would necessarily lead to attempts to explain. So how about it? Or has this thread suddenly gotten very uninteresting to you?
 
so paso, are you going to try to take up the challenge I have given to GT? I am aware of the claim that it is climate change that is affecting the Arctic Dipole, you have mentioned it quite a few times. That is a theory and it may be a correct one, but where has this been predicted by AGW theory? Was it predicted BEFORE we started having very cold winters in Europe or after as a means of explanation? I am not saying the latter is not helpful, but the former would be FAR more impressive as you and I both well know.
 
I will let GT speak for himself. As I recall, the models predict that the Gulf Stream will either alter or stop its flow. This would lead to a much colder winter in Europe although it would not alter the planet's temperature overall. I think the Arctic Dipole Anomaly does much the same thing where it forces colder air down from the arctic, but at the expense of a warming arctic and other northern climes.

The models predict an ice diminished and eventually ice free arctic which is thought to be the "cause" of the Arctic Dipole Anomaly. The models (and the IPCC projections), to the best of my knowledge, do not project regional weather other than to say all areas of the earth are likely to warm with the arctic getting it the worst although they do make climate extremes particularly heat and drought more likely. There have been a number of peer reviewed papers on Europe and the Arctic Dipole Anomaly which first occurred in the 2000's making its inclusion in an IPCC report a tad problematic.

I must add that I find this entire discourse tedious and inane. You are completely uninterested in learning any of this and are involved in some sort of bizarre game of "gotcha". This isn't science and is not even a good debate technique unless your only goal is obfuscation.

The deniers have done a very good job of obfuscating some fantastic work by some very smart and dedicated scientists all in the name of burning fossil fuels for a few more years. While I hope that the scientists are wrong, I fear they are right and all you and your ilk have done is manage to kill or severely discomfort billions of our descendants for thirty pieces of silver. This is especially galling when relatively modest steps now could yield large dividends in 100 years.
 
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